election2007

From today's crikey - final election figures

2008-01-07T23:14:00.001+10:00

Voters going postal – or a benefit of incumbency?

Christian Kerr writes:

The full results from the November 24 federal election are in -- and they show something interesting.

The Coalition ended up with 47.44% of the two party preferred voted. Despite the impression on the night of a strong Labor win, Kevin Rudd was only elected with a margin just over 1.5%.

That’s the smallest swing for a change of government since World War II, going by Mr Mumble’s table.

The Coalition clawed its position back “after strongly outpolling Labor in the record 2.5 million postal, pre-poll and absentee votes counted after election night”, according to Tim Colebatch’s analysis in The Age.

The conventional wisdom has said that the Coalition does better from these vote as they come from older, more conservative electors stuck at home or the more affluent.

That, however, is challenged. It’s a little out of date to assume that only Liberal voters can afford to take interstate holidays that require them to cast postal votes.

So how do we explain the high Coalition postal, pre-poll and absentee vote?

The influence of elderly voters was certainly felt there. It’s easier for many oldsters – and their carers – if they cast a postal or pre-poll vote. This demographic favours the conservative parties.

But all the major parties chase postal, pre-polls and absentee voters. Virtually every household would have received postal vote applications from both the Liberals and the ALP in the first few days of the campaign.

There’s usually strong competition between the majors to see who can get theirs in the mail first. They hope the applicant will follow their how to vote.

The Coalition had the advantage of incumbency at the November 24 poll – more MPs with more electorate databases and more postal allowance to spend.

Did this help them win more postal, pre-poll and absentee votes, or does the conventional wisdom still apply?

From yesterday's Crikey

2007-12-20T18:59:00.001+10:00

When is a vote not a vote? When it's provisional

Peter Brent from Mumble Politics writes:

A funny thing happened to provisional votes at the November 24 election. It probably cost the ALP several seats. Or it prevented them from taking several seats they shouldn’t have. Or perhaps 70,000 – 100,000 people who couldn’t be bothered keeping their enrolment details up to date simply got what they deserved.

It’s in the eye of the beholder.

What is a provisional vote? Broadly speaking, this is when an elector rocks up to a polling station on election-day, gives their name to the official but finds they aren’t on the roll.

So they get a ballot paper, fill it in, and also write their name and address and electorate on an envelope, into which the ballot paper goes. In the next week or so the AEC checks the voter’s bona fides and if the AEC agrees they should indeed have been on the roll, their ballot paper is counted.

At the 2004 election, about twelve and a half million people voted across the country. Some 180,878 people went through the provisional vote process described above, and of those, 90,366 were rejected, and 90,512 accepted.

So almost exactly 50% made it into the count in 2004.

At last month's election, nearly 13 million people voted in total, and there were (none of the 2007 figures is final) 168,767 provisional votes received by the AEC.

But only 24,212 were counted; the rest were rejected. That is, the acceptance rate of provisional votes fell from 50 percent in 2004 to 14 percent in 2007. Why?

The Howard government made several changes to the electoral law in the last few years, but one of them largely accounts for this huge drop.

Under the old rules, if a person moved from one house to another in the same electorate, and the AEC found out they had left Dwelling A, and so took them off the roll there, but didn’t put them on at Dwelling B because the voter hadn’t filled out a change of address form, they were still entitled to have their vote counted. (If they had moved to another electorate and had dropped off the roll they couldn’t vote.)

But that rule is no more, and such people were discarded in the preliminary scrutiny after last month’s election.

The remaining 14 percent – those who were accepted – were accidentally taken off by the AEC, could show they hadn’t moved address, or were mistakenly thought to have died, perhaps.

Does all of this matter? From the point of view of the disenfranchised elector it does, although some argue that if you can’t be bothered keeping your AEC details up to date you have no-one to blame but yourself.

There is also the fact that provisional voters are disproportionately left of centre. For example, the total national vote at the 2004 election split, after preferences, about 53 to 47 in the Coalition’s favour. But provisional votes split about 53 to 47 to the ALP.

Last month, the nation voted about 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour. Can we assume the “missing” provisional votes would have swung by the same amount, and so gone 59 to 41 in Labor’s favour? If we do assume that, then they would have added about .1 percent to Labor’s national vote, and given them a few more seats.

Or maybe they wouldn’t have swung by that much, and probably at least some of the “missing” provisionals should not have been counted anyway. But even a conservative treatment of them delivers Labor the ultra-marginal McEwen and Bowman.

Electoral law is not black and white. The tension is between integrity of the roll and people’s right to vote. Throw in partisan considerations - from both sides – and it’s a heady mix.

The Coalition government has rammed through some long-held hobby horses since taking control of the Senate in 2005. The new Labor government will have its own, although passage through the Senate may be tricky.

Any electoral system must guard against fraud. But the fact is – and all political parties know it – that the legitimate electors who are likely to lose their vote under tighter restrictions – renters, young folks, people who move around a lot, those without a drivers license – tend to vote left of centre in greater numbers than the rest of us.

This informs the parties’ approach to electoral law.

The Australian Electoral Commission runs a first class operation on election-day. Beneath the calm, efficient exterior at the polling booth is a massive logistical exercise that remains the envy of much of the planet.

But on enrolment we have fallen behind world’s best practice. In many countries address changes are automatic – you don’t have to tell the officials, they change your details for you – and in others enrolment and detail changes are possible up until polling day.

It’s time for Australian enrolment procedures to move into the 21st century. Then issues such as provisional voting would hardly arise.

Australian Shame: Aboriginal Artists Centre Closes

2007-12-13T16:51:00.000+10:00

One of the inspiring things about Broome has been Djugun Tribal Creations.

Djugun Tribal Creations is a not for profit organisation providing support and training to Broome’s emerging Artists. Tucked away in the light Industrial area of Clementson Street, we feature work from 21 artists including award winning artists Sue Poelina and Miguel Castillion.

Consisting of 3 onsite studios and a well presented Gallery, Djugun offers the experience of free daily tours. Visitors have the opportunity to meet artists and enjoy a cultural exchange while viewing the artists in action producing not only canvas painting, ceramics, sculptures and carved feature tiles as well.

In 2006 Djugun Tribal Artists in residence received high acclaim, NAIDOC Kimberley Artist of the Year, NAIDOC Kimberley Artist (most commended), and finalists in the MEMENTO Awards (National). These high profile emerging Artists are now finding their work in high demand. Unique one off designs depicting traditional and contemporary Aboriginal Art and local non-indigenous artworks are finding homes all over the state and worldwide.
about-australia.com

Never take anything for granted. The business was closing its doors today and emptying out all its equipment and stock. While we were busy defeating the Howard government, Djugun was defeated by the CDEP changes and other government bureaucracy. It has been a model for other aboriginal enterprises and its group of more than 20 artists have won numerous awards.

Photo: Broome potters get fired up (ABC Kimberley 16 april 2005)

We were shocked and stunned by the news. Sue Poelina, an award winning artist shown in the photo, predicted today that they would rise again, hopefully without the need or help of governments that have let them down.

Best of luck! The rest of us should hang our heads in shame.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Getup! Confab

2007-12-10T17:52:00.000+10:00

Bill McHarg : Planet First

The last kind of person I expected to meet at the Getup! Refresh Conference last weekend in Sydney was a corporate high flier. With the frenetic activity of the last week of campaigning I missed the work of Bill McHarg and his Kookaburra family. His full page ads were in the Sydney press and he slipped under the Broome radar. So it was a great pleasure to meet him and hear his story. Won’t bore you with it all here but his surprise attack on John Howard and Bennelong was clearly sensational. Watch the video and read Green businessman bids to oust Howard (The Age 15 November 2007)

His video Bill McHarg : Planet First was posted on YouTube on 15 November. The Kookaburra van toured the CBD and Bennelong for rest of the campaign. The assault on Howard cost about $200,000. Bill resigned from his business and positions on a number of organisations to focus on his Climate Change passion. His family were his campaign team.

His next target is the US policy makers. They don’t know what they’re in for.

Political Satire:

1. John Howard's Ladies Auxillary Fan Club

Two of the ladies auxillary presented a live sketch of their campaign best at the Getties awards. There was also a workshop presentation by Zelda explaining their tactics and lessons for this kind of satire. Go to their Youtube Channel: joholafaclub for a run around the tan with the PM and a day at the Melbourne Cup, plus other brilliant videos.

2. Cyrius01

Winner of the best satirical video was Cyrius01 aka Stefan Sojka. He was my favourite on Youtube in recent months. If you missed his stuff, visit his Channel.

3. Dan Ilic

Dan made a presentation of some of his videos. He made some for the Getup campaign, others through Fairfax Media and many solos. He describes himself as a writer/performer/director/broadcaster. He's at Channel DanIlic.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Tensions rise over Hale St Bridge

2007-12-05T23:15:00.000+10:00

Like a rabbit in the headlights

Traffic will be banked back for "kilometres" on the Riverside Expressway when works starts on the new Hale Street Bridge, the State Government says.

The proposed bridge, from Milton to South Brisbane, is becoming the "hot potato" road project in the spotlight for next year's Brisbane City Council elections.

Brisbane City Council is accusing the State Government of demanding changes to its traffic plans while construction of the bridge is underway.

Main Roads Minister Warren Pitt and Brisbane's Lord Mayor exchanged accusations on ABC Radio this morning, with Cr Newman accusing Mr Pitt's department of requesting major changes on Coronation Drive to prevent traffic building up on the Riverside Expressway.

Mr Pitt told ABC Radio that the traffic details were "very thin" on detail and predicted traffic would "bank up for kilometres" on the Riverside Expressway during the construction.

"The traffic management plan that the Lord Mayor says the council has put in place is very thin on detail," Mr Pitt said.

Brisbanites elected Newman maybe because he swam in a drain. Since then he's had this obsession with turning Brisbane into New York, like a little boy who thinks gluing a few decals to his bed makes it a V8 super car. So far all he's accomplished is NY sized spending with no plan for the future besides randomly plonking down billions of dollars of road infrastructure, despite the pressing need to upgrade and maintain Brisbane's pathetic public transport system.

Rudd's Cabinet & Ministry

2007-12-03T22:57:00.000+10:00

Cabinet and Ministry

Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister.

Julia Gillard, Deputy Prime Minister, Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, Social Inclusion. [this is a good indication of things that are going to be important in a Rudd govt.]

Wayne Swan, Treasurer. [meh, just do what the RBA tells you]

Chris Evans, Leader of the Government in the Senate, Immigration and citizenship. [can't be worse than Andrews]

John Faulkner, Special minister of State, Cabinet Secretary, Vice president of the executive council. [excellent choice here. Faulkner is a real stalwart in parliament, streets ahead of the filthy Eric "aids and" Abetz.

Simon Crean, Trade. [I suppose we'll see what he can really do, can't be worse than Vaile, as long as he doesn't bribe Saddam again]

Stephen Smith, Foreign Affairs. [great tactic, Smith could kill a party in a whorehouse that backed onto a liquor store. Our foreign partners will sign anything to get away]

Joel Fitzgibbon, Defence. [let's see what happens when super hornet gate comes out...]

Nicola Roxon, Health and Ageing. [another good choice, much better than the former minister for asbestos].

Jenny Macklin, Family, Housing, Community services and Indigenous Affairs. [another good performer].

Lindsay Tanner, Finance and Deregulation. [well he is an articled clerk...]

Anthony Albanese, Infrastructure, Transport and Regional development, Local Government, Leader of the House.

Stephen Conroy, Deputy Leader of the Government in the Senate, Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy. [a potential banana skin?]

Kim Carr, Innovation, Industry, Science and Research. [Another lefty, yay!]

Penny Wong, Climate Change and Water. [another stellar performer and organiser, she'll do well here I think]

Peter Garrett, Environment, Heritage and the Arts. [placed where he can't do too much damage]

Robert McClelland, Attorney-General. [should show slightly more signs of life than the previous occupant. Whatever you do Robert, DO NOT open that sarcophagus in the corner of your new office.]

Joe Ludwig, Human Services, Manager of Government Business in the Senate. [I worry that this guy could be Rudd's Downer... I hope not.]

Tony Burke, Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. [Has he ever even seen a cow?]

Martin Ferguson, Resources and Energy, Tourism. [Pro nuclear power energy minister... hmmm...]

Outer Ministry

Bob Debus, Home Affairs.

Chris Brown, Assistant Treasurer, Minister for Competition Policy and Consumer Affairs.

Alan Griffin, Veterans Affairs.

Tanya Plibersek, Housing, Status of Women.

Brendan O'Connor, Employment Participation. [oddly renamed "Brenda O'Conner" by the SMH]

Warren Snowdon, Defence Science and Personnel.

Craig Emerson, Small Business, Independent Contractors and the Service Economy, Minister Assisting the Finance Minister on Deregulation. [should do well]

Nick Sherry, Superannuation and Corporate Governance.

Justine Elliot, Ageing. [she isn't Christopher Pyne]

Kate Ellis, Youth, Sport.

Parliamentary Secretaries

Maxine McKew, Prime Minister and Cabinet. [Max the axe, is Rudd keeping his potential enemies close? That woman is a serious potential leadership threat]

Greg Combet, Defence. [he's probably as confused as we are]

Mike Kelly, Defence.

Gary Gray, Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development.

Bill Shorten, Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs. [once single handedly rescued two Tasmanian miners using nothing more than a teaspoon and a video camera]

Bob McMullan, Foreign Affairs. [see, I told you boring people to death was our new foreign affairs policy position]

Duncan Kerr, Foreign Affairs.

Anthony Byrne, Prime Minister and Cabinet.

Ursula Stephens, Social Inclusion and the Voluntary Sector.

John Murphy, Trade.

Jan McLucas, Health and Ageing.

Laurie Ferguson, Immigration and Citizenship. [hmm...]

Can Spend Campbell

2007-12-03T22:14:00.000+10:00

As quickly as the Kevin Rudd election posters are coming down around Brisbane, the Liberal Party are replacing them with billboards of their own local hero.

A number of posters featuring Lord Mayor Campbell Newman and his Liberal council hopefuls have sprung up around the city in recent days.

Motorists along Wynnum Road at Cannon Hill this morning will have noticed a large billboard advertisement for Melina Morgan, the Liberal candidate for the Morningside ward.

Ms Morgan is pictured alongside Brisbane's high-profile Cr Newman, who is seeking to break the majority Labor stranglehold in Brisbane City Council.

It is virtually a mirror-image of the successful ALP campaign to identify the local candidates aligned with the popular Kevin Rudd.

This blog will be covering the upcoming Brisbane council elections as well. With any luck the wild spending, tunnel obsessed, brainless mayor will no longer be the ranking elected Liberal in Australia. If anyone has anything interesting (or not) to say about our spender in chief, click the contribute link!

Bill Heffernan's Payback

2007-12-03T19:04:00.000+10:00

The Poll That Counts: Bill Heffernan's Payback

Inside the Tallyroom, Senator Bill Heffernan sparred with The Chaser. As a close friend of John Howard and a Liberal Party assassin, he watched the Prime Minister's concession speech with despair.

It was payback time for his attacks on High Court Justice Michael Kirby and Labor Deputy Julia Gillard.

Politics doesn't have to be fought Heffernan's venomous way. I hope he will leave us in peace now.

"The Poll That Counts" series of Election Day 2007 and the National Tallyroom is now complete. If you are blocked from Youtube try TeacherTube

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

My list of demands

2007-12-03T17:15:00.000+10:00

Hello. I'm one of the many people who voted to put you in office. Guess what? That makes me one of your many employers.

Normally when you are put in a new job in the PS, you'll get a copy of your JD, and 3-6 months probation. Given your circumstances, you already know what your JD is, and 6 months probation? Try 3 years, at which point we (the Australian people) will reassess.

Now I know you'll have many people pulling you this way and that, wanting things because of your position, but really, we all know that the PM only has as much power as parliament is willing to give him. But having said that, that doesn't mean you can't try - your influence is one bargaining chip you do have. And let's face it, the ALP is hardly going to oust you from your position in a leadership scuffle now that you've helped win back government from the racist, misogynist, power hungry Liberal Party.

But I do have a list of demands. Really, I know that they won't all be met in your first term in office, but damn, you can always try - lay the groundwork at the very least. In no particular order (because as far as I'm concerned, they're all very important), here are some of the ones that come to mind at this moment.

Get our troops out of Iraq. I noticed on Friday that you have stated this will happen by mid-2008. Good job. Now actually follow through please.

Reinstate accountability in the Senate. You know what I mean - committees keep the Senate in line, and the Howard government made damn sure three years ago that they would not be held accountable for their behaviour.

People are going to hate me for this but - no tax cuts. Not during your first term. Don't introduce them in the 2008 budget. The only time you could do so would be in the 2009 budget, but that will be dependent on many factors. If you do it in 2010 and you've not done it in previous years, it will be seen as an election grab, no matter how you justify it.

Reduce spending. For the love of god, reduce spending. The Howard government loved to throw money around as though it grows on trees and they have paid the price - interest rate rises, even when they were warned to slow down. Don't make the same mistake. Yes, interest rates are virtually guaranteed to go up in the next 12 months, and a recession appears to be looming, but that doesn't mean you should just sit around and wait for it to hit.

Now this next one may seem contrary to my previous demand, but increase funding for public schools and hospitals. I know education is one of your big priorities, and that's great, but you may just have to increase state funding. Mental health. Address it. ASAP. Don't just concentrate on the elderly or young people - there are millions of people who don't fall into that category and a portion of them have mental health issues that are inadequately addressed. This definitely needs to be addressed in conjunction (but not solely) with the criminal justice system.

Workchoices. Duh. Now, don't completely abolish AWAs - in some circumstances they are good. But for the rank and file - not good. People want their penalty rates, their overtime, their weekends. They want to be guaranteed a minimum level of rights. Do I need to say that reintroducing unfair dismissal laws would be a good idea? Oh, speaking of - release the statistics that the Howard government refused to release that would back up their claims that removing the laws was great for workers. I don't expect the laws to be reintroduced in their old form, but get the unions together with business, see if something can't be worked out that is good for all. Remember that the ALP was first and foremost for the worker - people like my dad left the party years ago because of the gradual shift to the right. Don't allow yourselves to move any further in that direction. After all, I think we can safely say it is because of an intense dislike for workchoices that you got elected.

Repeal the Marriage Amendment Bill of 2004. (pdf) You know the one. The one that says you can only get married if you and your partner are of different genders. You supported it, remember? Marriage is about love and commitment, not about who has a penis and who has a vagina. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it - not everyone in a committed relationship wants to get married, whether they are straight or gay. The fact that people want to be legally recognised as a couple shouldn't be contingent on whether or not the person they love is of the same sex as them. Gay marriage will not destroy life as we know it. As a first step, you can make sure that homosexual de facto couples get exactly the same rights as heterosexual de facto couples. This also includes access to IVF and adoption.

Kyoto. I know you've already said you'll ratify. Good. Just a reminder.

Detention centers and "queue jumpers". Introduce a maximum time that people will be left in detention centers when seeking asylum (I suggest 6 months - no more). Do not put children in there full stop. While I'd like the detention centers to be completely abolished, I know you aren't going to do that, so this is my compromise. Also - repeal the "Pacific Solution". It is bullshit.

Be honest with Australia about the terrorism threat. There is no doubt in my mind that Howard & Co exaggerated the level of threat for political gain. Their encouragement of xenophobia and racism is ruining Australia's international reputation. You need to make sure that people know that this kind of bigotry will not be tolerated (or encouraged) like it has been in the past 11 years. Multiculturalism is not just a pretty idea, it is essential for harmony.

Fixed terms. You yourself know what it feels like to be held hostage to the whims of the government in announcing when the election will be held. People like to be able to plan. People like to be able to know that the government of the day isn't going to try to shove some more legislation through before they announce an election. People like to know when they are planning to get rid of the government, that there is a clearly defined end in sight. Three or four years - up to you. I'd prefer three, but that is a personal preference. You actually said during the campaign that you would introduce them - please don't let that be a non-core promise.

This is all I can think of at the moment. I know there are plenty more. You do have your work cut out for you - 11 years of the Howard government has resulted in a lot of rubbish to wade through. So you'll probably hear from me again.

In the tradition of employers everywhere, I also reserve the right to add to or amend any of these issues. It's part of the fun.

Good luck, we will be watching.

Sincerely,

MB

Howard's Last Innings: A Golden Pair

2007-12-03T11:19:00.000+10:00

Howard's Last Innings: Tallyroom Spectators

John Howard made his concession speech on Saturday night at 10.40 pm, Canberra time. Like his cricketing idol, Don Bradman, Howard made a duck in his last innings. In fact by losing his seat, it's probably a golden pair.

Bennelong 0, Coalition 0.

In the national Tallyroom, he was watched by both friend and foe with a sense of disbelief. Bill Heffernan, his loyal assassin who spent the night sparring with the Chaser. Joe Hockey hoping it was all just another stunt. ACTU President Sharon Burrow, vindicated at last. Penny Wong who was a formidable opponent during the campaign.

The media looked on, in silence for once. Members of the Press Gallery. Shock-jocks like Steve Price, confidante of rock stars. But also the alternative media. Koori and Tamil media broadcasters who were seated beside me. The National Indigenous Times who worked in front of us. Getup and Nick Parkin and Matt Clayfield from Election Tracker who blogged live through the evening.

And of course the public gallery who had clapped and cheered spontaneously from the beginning. Most listened quietly for the most part to the PM. But in an indication of what went wrong for him this year, many of the crowd stopped listening before he finished.

The closing credits of the video show a 1982 Canberra Times front page dating from the Fraser government. The caption reads: "John Howard - set to replace Lynch?" It hangs in the foyer of Rydges Lakeside Hotel in Canberra. Howard entered parliament in 1974 and became Treasurer in 1977. He was the last remaining member of the Liberal Party Room of 1975, which blocked supply forcing the Whitlam government's dismissal. All gone, but not forgotten!

A cliché called closure.

If you are blocked from Youtube try TeacherTube.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Election Night: Tallyroom Tension

2007-12-01T17:34:00.000+10:00

The Poll That Counts No.3: Tallyroom Tension

Inside the National Tallyroom in Canberra on Saturday night, the tension rose as the Australian Labor Party took the lead. People had travelled long distances and waited for hours to get into the public area. They knew why they had come. As one woman quipped, "I want my country back!". It was not just a partisan crowd. But they had come to celebrate.

Original post at: Labor View From Broome

The Tallyroom: Howard Made History

2007-11-30T12:20:00.000+10:00

The Poll That Counts No.2: Howard Made History

Inside the Canberra Tallyroom the excitement builds in the 2007 Australian Federal election. Maxine McKew, the ALP candidate, establishes a comfortable lead over John Howard, outgoing Prime Minister and Member for Bennelong.

We wait for Senator Penny Wong, ALP campaign spokesperson, to smile. What a poker face! It finally happens at 9.30 pm when Maxine appears on the TV coverage. National Barnaby Joyce, and Liberals Bill Heffernan and Joe Hockey clearly have dud hands all night. Humpty Dumpty Hockey gets hotter and hotter. Looks like he might explode as he he struggles in his own seat. Heffernan spars with the Chaser but more of that in the following episodes. Finally Howard appears, to make his concession speech, and the crowd hushes.

Footnote: Later Kerry O'Brien and Antony Green both complained about the crowd noise. Some of it was caused by the Chaser. Most was spontaneous outpourings of delight as the figures for Bennelong came on the screens or images of Maxine or Julia Gillard appeared. Unfortunately Julia was seated with her back to the public area so we missed her live facial expressions.

Think I was the only one watching the old tallyboards.

More to come: People in the tallyroom watch Howard's speech. Hefferan payback.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

King Rat

2007-11-30T02:23:00.000+10:00

Just who is Brendan Nelson? Well let's see what he was like in 1994...

BMJ 1994;309:562 (3 September)

News

Focus: Sydney: The rise and rise of Brendan Nelson
S Chapman
Earlier this year a colleague returned to Sydney from what hadpromised to be a dull meeting of the Royal Australasian Collegeof Physicians in Hobart, the drizzle soaked capital of Tasmania.But he beamed from ear to ear. His glee was at the oration givenby Brendan Nelson, the 36 year old national president of theAustralian Medical Association.
Nelson, a Tasmanian GP who wears a diamond earring, had torninto the medical profession for its sleepy social reform agenda.He berated them for shirking all the big public health debatesother than those that were self serving. He urged them to usetheir knowledge, positions, and privilege to support the thingsthat really mattered in their communities. At the end of hisspeech nearly all stood and applauded.
Nelson took over the AMA' presidency in 1993, after servingan apprenticeship to the affluent, avuncular orthopaedic surgeonBruce Shepherd. During the 1993 federal election Shepherd campaignedon behalf of the (now deposed) Liberal leader, John Hewson,prompting Prime Minister Paul Keating to describe him as the"most ugly, most rapacious union leader" in Australia.
Nelson, in contrast, is from what the Labor party calls a "truebeliever" background. Grandson of a communist and son of a Laborloyalist he had been a Labor party member, but he resigned whenhe took up AMA politics so as to be seen as nonpartisan in hisdealings.
Nelson has transformed the public face of AMA politics. Onceseen as the guardian of medical privilege the AMA is now mostoften heard through Nelson's plain speaking about oppressedgroups, reform, and bungling bureaucracy. The Australian mediafind him irresistible. While many in the Australian health systemare mesmerised by the emperor's new clothes of the 1990s (healthoutcomes, customer focus, etc) Nelson speaks no nonsense talkabout real health problems. In the past 12 months he has breathedlife into debates about drug policy, euthanasia, homosexuallaw reform, environmentalism, immunisation, declining fundingfor medical research, and hotels supplying women with free drinksto attract hard drinking men. His most sustained efforts havebeen directed at Australia's appalling Aborginal health record,the health consequences of unemployment, and hounding the tobaccoindustry.
In August it was widely reported that Nelson would be forsakingmedical politics for the popular variety. He confirmed thathe had been approached by both main parties, and the main intriguenow focuses on which way he will jump. He remains tight lipped.The Liberal party in Australia has been out of power since 1983,and despite rhetoric about a new direction, remains bereft ofleadership. Nelson would give the party a charisma transplantbut at great risk of arousing Australian's suspicion of turncoatsand political opportunists.
The Labor party keeps no seats warm for old comrades who "rat"on the party by leaving it. For some too Nelson remains taintedby his past association with Shepherd's overt support for theLiberals and by the abiding suspicion that the profile he givesto public health issues is a Trojan horse for the AMA's realbusiness: the preservation of doctors' incomes.
But many suspect that Nelson's first duty is to social medicine- to the unemployed, Aboriginal health, the further humiliationof the tobacco industry - all subjects where the Liberal partyhas a weak record. These are issues where he is at his mostanimated. Those who know him find the public stand consonantwith the private man. He has often said pragmatically that politicalchange requires working from with in a major political party.Labor therefore seems most likely. If Nelson jumps into thedesperate-for-talent Liberal boat he may just sink with it.

How prophetic. Nelson appears to become captain of one of the Titanic's lifeboats. He's now leader of a party so dumbstruck by defeat they've opted for a former union boss and Labor party member to lead their party. This is after having run a massive scare campaign on union bosses. There's a rumour that Nelson won because he wouldn't say sorry to Indigenous Australians while Turnbull would. If this ideological blind-spot is all that's holding the Liberal party together, it's going to be a long three years for them.

The Poll That Counts No.1: Around the booths

2007-11-29T15:30:00.000+10:00

I represented YouDecide2007 as a citizen journalist at the Tallyroom on Saturday night. An amazing experience! During Howard's concession speech I videoed the people on the floor of the media centre watching him: Bill Hefferan, Steve Price, Penny Wong, Sharon Burrows and many more.

Still editing. First episode "The Poll That Counts No.1: Around the booths" is on Youtube.

All episodes will be posted to Youdedcide2007, and TeacherTube as well to get around the censors. Watch this space!

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

John Howard is at Stage One

2007-11-29T00:06:00.001+10:00

John Howard comes to terms with his role in the Liberal party's loss

Dr. Hibbert: Now, a little death anxiety is normal. You can expect to go through five stages. The first is denial.
Homer: No way! Because I'm not dying!
Dr. Hibbert: The second is anger.
Homer: Why you little!
Dr. Hibbert: After that comes fear.
Homer: What's after fear? What's after fear?
Dr. Hibbert: Bargaining.
Homer: Doc, you gotta get me out of this! I'll make it worth your while!
Dr. Hibbert: Finally, acceptance.
Homer: Well, we all gotta go sometime.
Dr. Hibbert: Mr. Simpson, your progress astounds me.

Tony Abbott, Liberal party people skills coach and public relations manager, was on Lateline this evening. According to him, Howard has convinced himself that the election defeat wasn't his fault. Although, the defeat was half Peter Costello's fault. Whomever is responsible for the other half was left as an exercise for the listener. Also Malcolm Turnbull, who arrived at Howard's last supper at the back gate, changing the Liberal party into the Democrats is totally going to work. OMFG Malcolm watch out... you're a plucky historian but there's a crazed albino Catholic monk right. behind. you. Pausing only to adjust his cilice, Tony informed us that Costello had eaten many meals at the Lodge in Canberra (presumably in the servants quarters) and that he hadn't had a 'foursome' (as god is my witness, the transcript shall not prove me a liar) with Tanya, Janette and John. Whatever vomiting while laughing sounds like, I made that noise. He went on to inform us that he would totally get in on that action. I wish I was lying. Costello is rumoured to be writing a book. I'm sure he'll dedicate a whole chapter to Tony Abbot. As soon as I heard he'd be on Lateline I knew we'd be in for a spectacular performance.

Oh Yes, we’re all sorry now

2007-11-28T17:49:00.000+10:00

For the Liberal party, all of a sudden sorry isn't the hardest word to say.

Posted by Possum Comitatus on November 28, 2007

One of the inevitable consequences of an electoral drubbing is the miraculous discovery of a special type of remorse that only the prism of hindsight can apparently deliver.

Turnbull is sorry the Coalition didn’t say sorry, Hockey is sorry that Workchoices went too deep, Nelson is sorry that his government didn’t use the phrase “human and social objectives” as often as he believes they ought to have, half the front bench are sorry that Costello was a political eunuch for the past 12 months and the entire Liberal Party is sorry that Jackie Kelly ever got married.

Full post at Possums Pollytics

Sorry
Is all that you cant say
Years gone by and still
Words dont come easily
Like sorry like sorry

Forgive me
Is all that you cant say
Years gone by and still
Words dont come easily
Like forgive me forgive me

But you can say baby
Baby can I hold you tonight
Maybe if I told you the right words
At the right time you'd be mine

Apologies to Tracy Chapman

Foreign Views

2007-11-27T13:47:00.000+10:00

NEW ZEALAND HERALD

The victory of Kevin Rudd's Labor Party confirms yet again that there comes a time when it is not enough merely to appeal to voters on the basis of an outstanding record. At that stage in the political cycle, the electorate's view of a leader can turn. A feeling that it is time for a change will take root.

THE PRESS, NEW ZEALAND

Howard met the fate of all who try to cling to power for too long - a stinging reverse that, in this case, has delivered a comprehensive victory to the Labor Party.

JAWA POS, INDONESIA

Under Kevin Rudd, Australia must be more egalitarian and abandon the arrogance of being the US' sheriff in Asia-Pacific. Rudd must not maintain Howard's bossy style.

AHMAD ALI NURDIN IN PIKIRAN RAKYAT, INDONESIA

Howard's downfall has further confirmed the assumption that world politicians who follow US President George Bush's policy will collapse sooner or later. After the resignation of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, now it is Howard's turn to fall. For Indonesia, it is hoped that the new Australian leader can build more equal and friendly bilateral relations.

ZHONGGUO QINGNIAN BAO, CHINA

Australia's diplomatic priorities will not change, and foreign policy priorities towards the US will not change... Rudd's 'China expertise' is the result of acquired learning and personal interest, and he is first of all an Australian citizen and second Australian prime minister.

SUNDAY MORNING POST, HONG KONG

For Asia and particularly China, it will be business as usual... Debate over closer relations with Asia as opposed to traditional ties with the US and Britain has long been overtaken by economic and cultural links with Asia through trade. Australia will continue to fuel China's industrial growth with raw materials.

BBC

I've also heard that our Polynesian neighbours are overjoyed at the prospect of no longer having to deal with the rude, arrogant, bullying former foreign minister. The future looks bright for creating of partnerships in our region to advance our interests via goodwill and cooperation, as opposed to Downer's moronic 19th century colonialist mentality.

Two choices for the Liberals in Opposition

2007-11-27T13:40:00.000+10:00

Posted by Andrew Elder

The Liberals have two choices, neither of which depend on Rudd or the vagaries of fate. They can stay focused on holding Rudd to his promises, while at the same time working out what theirs should be. Or, they can pretend that all they need to do is fine-tune the message a bit and they're fine. The latter is the most likely, but the great thing about pessimism is that surprises are usually pleasant.

Full post at Politically Homeless

That’s the Right dealt with, now for the Left

2007-11-27T13:38:00.000+10:00

Posted by the piping shrike at Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Friends, tomorrow the work begins. Australia's long-term challenges demand a new consensus across our country. I'm determined to use the office of prime minister to forge that consensus.

I want to put aside the old battles of the past: the old battles between business and unions, the old battles between growth and the environment, the old and tired battles between federal and state. The old battles between public and private.

K Rudd 24 November 2007

It will be some time before the significance of Rudd’s highly revealing victory speech becomes apparent. The basis of what he was saying hinged on his idea of a new consensus. Andrew Bolt got this 100% wrong on Insiders when he said Rudd was doing me-tooism with Hawke on this. Rudd’s consensus is utterly different from Hawke’s.

Full post at The Piping Shrike

A staged implosion – an update

2007-11-27T13:35:00.000+10:00

Posted by the piping shrike at Monday, November 26, 2007

Well that was quick. Costello’s refusal of the leadership has undermined the brief stability given by the Liberals holding up reasonably well in their blue ribbon metropolitan seats. In doing so he paid back the party that had refused to give him the leadership on a plate a year ago.

The obvious barb in Costello’s press conference was the attack on the NSW Liberal Party, blaming them for the Lindsay fiasco. He probably had a point.

Full post at The Piping Shrike

Facing up to Howards legacy

2007-11-26T22:09:00.000+10:00

Possum Comitatus has a good analysis of the Liberal party's rock and a hard place leadership problem

It’s a tough choice for the top job of the Chief Eater of the shit sandwich, and that’s exactly what being the first Opposition leader of a routed government is all about.

For the next 3 years, as every misdemeanour or gross political felony that the previous government committed is thrown back in their face, when every dirty little policy secret or suppressed statistic is released into a hungry news cycle, the next leader has to sit there and go “Mmmmm Hmmm - tastes like chicken“.

It doesn’t matter what opposition leaders say for the first term - no one listens to them anyway. The only reason people know that opposition leaders exist in their first stint out of government is because they just happen to be the poor Shmo’s that become the target of a new government’s political retribution.

Now honestly - who can see Malcolm Turnbull sitting there sucking that up?

Full post at Possums Pollytics

Lexy D

2007-11-26T19:55:00.000+10:00

Pic via Crikey

Downer on the 7:30 report. Tosser.

He claims he doesn't have the "enthusiasm" for the position of opposition leader. Hmmm...I suspect it is more that the party doesn't have the enthusiasm for him.

Banging on about his contact internationally due to his 11 years as Foreign Minister

Not "dramatically" surprised about Costello.

"I will continue to help the liberal party and I will listen to what they want me to do in the future." ???

Now saying that Turnbull has great experience when yesterday on Insiders he said he'd "only" been there for 3 years. Not Turnbull, Abbott and Nelson not neophytes.

My god, he's getting even more annoying.

Kissing Costello's arse. "Didn't ever have the numbers" for leadership. Interesting. "At any time." !!!!

What motivated the PM to ask ministers if he should stay, then reject the advice? All the wonderful work they did during 2007 didn't make any difference in the polls. Oh. Kerry said he has heard that Howard rejecting advice affected his relationship with Downer. Downer denying (of course he will). "He thought he was the person best able to win the election..."

Bwahahahahaha

****

From yesterday's Insiders:

And the first thing the Liberal Party should do in order to win the 2010 election is get behind Peter Costello as the new leader of the Liberal Party, because I think he will be a very formidable Leader of the Opposition and I think he will very much get Kevin Rudd's measure. S

Hmmmm

BARRIE CASSIDY: But was it a mistake, though, to revisit the issue during APEC, to take soundings and then to essentially ignore the advice that came back to him?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, I think it was sensible for the Prime Minister to look at our situation.

Look, to be honest with you, I'll tell you one thing retrospectively, my view through this year was that it didn't look to me as though we were going to win the election. I didn't of course say that publicly and you wouldn't have expected me to. It would be suicidal to do that sort of thing, but as the year wore on there wasn't a very positive public response to a range of different initiatives, for example the $10 billion Murray Darling initiative was very well supported by the public, was a wonderful thing to do, something I've wanted to see happen all my adult life.

But it didn't shift the opinion polls. When we brought down a very popular budget in May, yes, popular with the public in terms of the initiatives, didn't shift the opinion polls.

And when we intervened in the Northern Territory in the Indigenous communities there again, the actual initiative was very popular with the public but it didn't shift the opinion polls.

I must tell you that throughout the year I have had a fairly gloomy view of our prospects. So inevitably in those circumstances, a lot of us talked about it and what we could do to try and impervious our situation, so I do think that's wise?

I think that was very wise, but who knows what a better solution could be. History just doesn't record that.

BARRIE CASSIDY: But surely that underlines it. If you a gloomy prognosis on your prospects, Peter Costello was available, you're now saying he will be an excellent leader of the Liberal Party, surely it would've been worth a try?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, who know what would've happened, frankly. I mean, who knows? We just will never know the answer to that. I think also it's important to remember that I think John Howard has been the best Prime Minister Australia's ever had, he's been an extraordinarily successful Prime Minister. He has been a formidable political figure, he's been one of the great political figures of Australian history and you know, people were certainly not going to turn aggressively on somebody of that stature.

That there's just no question of it.

BARRIE CASSIDY: You have no doubt Peter Costello will be elected leader of the Liberal Party unopposed?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Look, I've not spoken to too many people since last night. I've spoken to about two people. So I hope, as a former leader myself, let me say I hope that the party will just get behind Peter Costello and elect him unopposed.

I think that's the right decision for the Liberal Party. Peter Costello has enormous talent and remember he does have a great deal more experience, almost infinitely more experience than Kevin Rudd, and it will be a tough job for Mr Rudd to confront somebody who is as experienced as articulate, and as formidable as Peter Costello.

I think Mr Rudd will find, of course he will have a honeymoon for a while, but I think he'll find dealing with Mr Costello very heavy going as time goes on.

BARRIE CASSIDY: Malcolm Turnbull won his seats against the odds, will that boost his stocks within the party?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, he has been in Parliament for 3 years and I think he's gradually building up a bank of experience there, and I think he has a very good future in the party.

He is a very good friend of mine and I think very highly of him as a person. But look, you need to build up experience in politics and he's doing that. Nobody in the party, well, I suppose at least in theory with the exception of me, but I'm not running for leader, but no one in the party has the experience of Peter Costello and I think there shouldn't be a contest to the leadership. It should just go straight to Peter Costello.

Costello to refuse leadership

2007-11-25T12:53:00.000+10:00

Peter Costello has made the shock announcement that he ''would not seek nor accept'' a nomination to be the new opposition leader.

Instead, Mr Costello said today he wanted to build a post-political career in the commercial world.

Australia's longest serving treasurer, who had long wanted to be prime minister, told a news conference in Melbourne he would stay on in parliament and then move on.

SMH

Well, he did want to be PM, not leader of the opposition.

'I do believe it's time for the young people of talent and ability to be given their go in the Liberal party," he said

A nod to Turnbull perhaps? He's only been there for three years, but they do need some fresh eyes. Dear god, don't let it be Abbott or Downer. I can't imagine it would be Julie Bishop. She's a woman and I don't think the old guard would stand for that.

Of course, to put on my bitchy hat (what?) "young people of talent and ability" - does that mean he concedes that Howard was not young (duh) had no talent (obvs) and his ability was purely based on ruling with an iron fist? Hmmm.

Fred Niles... why bother?

2007-11-25T12:17:00.000+10:00

Tis the morning after the election, and all through my house, noone knew who won the election, not even a mouse.

Voting Day was behind me, but I had in my possession a new leader that I helped rise to power, some books from the $1 book bin, and a pile of sausages inspired by the voting poll sausage sizzle.

The best thing about voting day for me is the $1 book bin and sausage sizzle, and the smell of school hall and noting how small the childhood world is through cynical adult eyes.

Cynical? Moi? My vote didn't start out too well considering the voting lady couldn't even find my name on the polling list. But we persisted and I walked to my booth with my green slip and white table-cloth.

What freak of nature has the time to number every single box under the line?
Fred Niles on the green slip is just offensive. What if I wanted to celebrate the new leadership with an icecream and an abortion?

Upon walking out of the hall into the rain and the unknown but fairly guessable political future, I didn't bother to take any Mike Bailey pamphlets, I just voted for you buddy. High 5.

Welcome to our new PM

2007-11-25T01:17:00.001+10:00

Kev - this still holds true:

Just because you're now PM, don't think we won't be watching. Because quite a few of us didn't vote for you as our primary candidate. Remember that.

As one of the people in your electorate (and how often does a person get to say they were one of the people who voted in the PM?), I think I am well placed to demand that you not become complacent. I have a list of things you should address that I will tell you about in due course.

In the meantime, congratulations. The real work now begins!

Moments

2007-11-25T01:04:00.000+10:00

Good Stuff

0) Rudd mentioning Bernie Banton in his speech. I clapped.

1) The cheer from the counting room crowd when they first heard Howard was behind in his seat.

2) "Julia! Julia!" making it hard for Kerry to hear himself speak. It was brilliant.

3) Peter Costello looking like a weight had been lifted from his shoulders.

4) Peter Costello thinking he's going to be the leader of the opposition because Howard said it would be a smooth transition to him.

5) Howard saying that the next leader would be decided by the party, taking responsibility for the loss and failing to retire then and there, screwing Costello one last time and confirming he lies simply because it's in his nature.

6) The atmosphere at Howard's concession. It was like he was Jim Jones. This guy kept screaming about how much he loved Howard. I was expecting them to break out cups of poisoned kool aid any minute.

7) Wilson Tuckey getting the fright of his life.

8) Greens polling so well, though it was largely skewed to certain seats. Went as high as +20% in some of them.

9) Downer claiming that 'bad timing' caused their election loss.

10) Learning that the libs are much easier to listen to... in opposition.

11) Joe Hockey talking about how devastating it is for his lib friends sacked for operational reasons, while the world's smallest violin plays for him.

Sad stuff:

1) Bartlett losing. Totally undeserved.

2) Ditto Kerry Nettle, she'll be missed.

3) Brough losing. He was way, way down on the list of govt. members deserving the chop.

4) The reptillian Pyne making it back. He announced he wants to slither into the deputy lib position, so it's not all bad news.

5) The hopeless Ron Boswell in the senate.

6) Steven Fielding not being struck by lighting. I'd had my hopes but on the balance, I'll take it.

VICTORY!!!

2007-11-24T20:41:00.000+10:00

We've won. Go out and celebrate the repudiation of Howardism. No party will ever, ever again dare to threaten the rights of working Australians. Howard appears set to reinforce the lesson of Stanley Bruce. Push the Aussie worker and they'll bloody well push you back!

This lesson is still valid, Kevin Rudd. Never forget what your mandate is, or become as slack and complacent as Howard.

Also Howard loses with a lower primary than Mark Latham LOL!!!

Help! What's Happening?

2007-11-24T09:23:00.000+10:00

Need to know what's going on? Try:

The ABC

Pollbludger

Possum Commitatus

If anyone has more suggestions, please post them in the comments!

Enough. Dear god, enough.

2007-11-23T22:06:00.000+10:00

The difference between this election and the other two federal elections I've voted in is that this time there seems to be a real hope of getting rid of John Howard.

I can't even tell you how much I looked forward to voting on my 18th birthday in 2001 after John Howard stole all Pauline Hanson's policies and then added his own little extras- the election won on a wave of vitriol and hatred that Labor was afraid to stand up to. I looked forward to having my say again in 2004 where Mark Latham put forward some really good policies and yet I still couldn't bring myself to vote anything but Green because I could see that Latham's own party had undermined him in trying to soften his image. The failure of the ALP to counter the Howard government's attacks on Latham was so glaring that that it seemed to be a deliberate strategy by people in the party- almost as if they saw another term of John Howard as being more in their interests than Latham continuing to wield power as leader.

This time, there appears to be a mood for change. Not so much change of policies as change of leader, which is why Kevin Rudd has been so careful of the areas in which he differentiates himself from the government. I want Kevin Rudd to be Prime Minister only because it means we're rid of Howard. It's the first step on the road to making Australia a better country.

Now the polls are showing that Labor's lead over the coalition is narrowing: the ALP could win 52% of the two-party preferred vote and still not win government. Even if the polls were predicting a landslide I could scarcely bring myself to believe that the day is almost here where we can oust John Howard. With the polls that close, I know I'm going to have a sleepless night.

I've had enough of John Howard. I can remember being 14 and wishing I could vote so I could do something to get rid of him. Tomorrow will have been two weeks since I turned 24. Next year Gam and I will get married. Within the next decade we'll have children. I want to raise our kids in a country that has reached a stage where it has repudiated John Howard and all he stands for. I want to teach our kids about the John Howard era as a thing of the past, not something continued under Peter Costello, or Tony Abbott, or Alexander Downer that they will learn to rail against as they reach the stage of life where they start to think about the future they will build.

I can't think of a country I'd rather live in than Australia- not permanently. We've got a lot of good things. We have also allowed John Howard to take the credit for the great things we have- we allow him to spout pseudo-patriotic statements about mateship and being Australian while he continues to believe that we should have a foreign monarch as our head of state. While he continues to fawn at the feet of the imperialist US administration, smiling wetly as he receives the infrequent pat on the head from his US masters. The man who undermines our identity as a country simultaneously tries to take credit for creating it.

I can't believe what we have allowed John Howard to get away with.

I can say in all honesty that tomorrow I will feel devastated if we allow it to happen again. Australia- I'll never forgive you!

Note: as a sign that I can scrape together an ounce of optimism that John Howard will tomorrow be consigned to the dustbin of history I am creating a John Howard tag. This will aid those fortunate enough in the future to not remember his time in government to spend time researching the man as the relic he is.

Tell Me How to Vote!

2007-11-22T23:44:00.000+10:00

So how should you vote? Damned if I know. But you can probably answer a few questions on www.HowShouldIVote.com.au. Don't make a decision based on your final result. That would be extremely stupid. What you can do is plug in your answers to a whole bunch of 'issues' and at the end, if you're lucky, you can see how candidates in your electorate match up with you. Including seeing their responses to the same questionnaire. I've said it before, in Australia there is no excuse for not voting in your own interests. We have an embarrassment of information sources readily accessible to each voter. If you voted for someone and you didn't really know what they were about, it is your fault.

Why preferential voting matters

2007-11-22T20:00:00.000+10:00

I was surprised yesterday when one of my friends admitted that they weren't aware of the advantage of voting first for a minor party and preferencing a major party. She was just going to vote for the ALP first.

Preferential voting works as follows:

You put a minor party (eg, Greens) first. Another party (eg, ALP) second.

If the party that you placed first gets more than 4% of the primary vote, they get funding of roughly $2 per vote ($2.40?). If your first choice does not win the majority (50% + 1) of the vote, your vote is then transferred to your next preference (second count). And so on until a candidate receives the majority vote.

So, by voting for a minor party first, even if you know they won't win the majority, helps them by (hopefully) giving them funding for part of their campaign, and sends the message to the major parties that the smaller parties and their policies cannot be discounted.

Don't waste your vote!

Seats du jour: Leichhardt and Ryan

2007-11-22T13:56:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 2:22 pm under Federal Election 2007

A look at two seats in very different parts of Queensland which the Liberals are reckoned to be in serious danger of losing, despite double-digit margins.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Shrek Returns to Swamp, Finds Donkey

2007-11-22T13:11:00.000+10:00

Joe Hockey and Jackie Kelly discuss campaign strategery

As if being the poor goose that has to defend Workchoices isn’t enough of a burden, now Joe Hockey has to try and put out the fires of those political pyromaniacs of the Kelly Gang in his own seat – in 48 hours.

Shreks electorate of North Sydney is filled to the brim with people of a certain moral persuasion on social issues, their delicate Naw Shaw sensibilities being almost legendary…. Dahrling.

But out in the Bogansville of Lindsay, uber-Bogan Jackie Kelly and her bourbon swilling coterie of mental midgets thought it would be a really shit hot idea to start handing out fake ALP pamphlets depicting Labor being under the thumb of mufti-madness.

Gold. Read the rest at Possum's Pollytics.

Go see the interview with Kelly. Make sure to watch right to the end. Laurie Oakes tears her a new one.

Lindsaygate: "we are not crooks just stupid"

2007-11-22T08:24:00.000+10:00

Jackie Kelly is certainly loyal. She is defending her husband and mates as just joking with their leaflet. Fake flyer meant as a joke: Lib MP (ABC News, 22 November 2007)

The Liberal Lindsaygate team have been nominated by LaborView for the Dead Parrots Society Hall of Fame today. It has always amused me that one of the links on Jackie Kelly’s website is to church service times in her electorate. Just Christian ones, no synagogues, no mosques or buddhist temples. Long live mono-culturalism which some of us know by another name.

Richard Nixon famously claimed in 1973, "I am not a crook."

Jackie Kelly seems to saying of her husband Gary Clark, "He's just stupid." She just told the Today Show: "He hates the unions with a passion." "It was cooked up by a bunch of bored drunks".

You're right Jackie, life is funnier than fiction.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Rudd. 7:30 Report.

2007-11-21T19:32:00.000+10:00

pic via crikey

Ruddy's turn tonight.

I'm bummed I missed his press club address today. Oh well.

"The Rudd Government". Has a nice ring to it!

Hawke/Keating paid political price for risks they took. Resulted in forming platform for Australia's economic growth. Points out that under Fraser interest rates were high too, not just under Hawke/Keating. Kerry basically telling him to shut up - covered that last night with J-Ho! Doesn't want audience to fall asleep.

Keeping eye on inflationary pressures is key.

Do you agree the GST was right for Australia? "You can't unscramble the omelette" Huh? "But do you now accept it was right for Australia?" By undoing it, you would cause chaos - only reason for not touching GST. Need simpler ways to comply for business. "Do you believe the GST was bad policy?" Affects lower end of the income spectrum more.

Um. I'm a bit bored. La la la.

Housing! Are you comfortable in allowing the RB to slow the growth of the economy by increasing interest rates? "I accept the independence of the bank." "Very important we take a hard line approach to unnecessary expenditure." If RB says public spending is causing more inflation, would you reassess your spending promises? He's banging on about how they're going to spend less than Howard and save more than Howard. Snore.

"Stop the crazy spend-a-thon."

Points out that all the govt does is spend and bitch (about the ALP) as their campaign. Heh heh.

Oops. Sorry. Spaced out. Something about the ALP historically?

Kevvie loves his metaphors. WorkChoices "dicing" things. Omelettes, dicing. Was he hungry when he did this interview?

"You could drive a Mack truck through that safety net." (Workchoices.)

"Brissy." Go Brissy! Ahem. Sorry.

Blah. Banging on about the union backgrounds of the shadow cabinet. "I will govern in the national interest."

Ooooohhhhh - H R Nicholls Society. You went there! Woo hoo! (Costello was founder).

I love Kerry. He's so good at forcing pollies to get back on track and answering the question asked.

"Genesis of our IR system ... will have as it's core component..." something about wages. Sorry.

Nauru. How quickly would you move to shut down? No advice on that. Have appropriate offshore detention facility (Christmas Is). Why not use it instead? What? Why use it at all??????? You disappoint me, Mr Rudd. "Pacific solution is just wrong...best way is to use Christmas Island." Sigh.

I'm so voting Greens. Yeah, yeah. I know I was anyway. But this reminds me why.

Climate change - Can you continue to responsibly ignore nuclear power? No decent attempt to look into renewable energy. Solar technologies have gone offshore. Solar, wind, geothermal will be looked at. Nuclear? We have large range of alternatives. Responsibilities regarding the export of uranium - repeats that other countries don't have as many options available to them. Didn't really answer the question, but Kerry didn't follow up.

Presidential style? "I believe very much in taking advice...evidence based policy. What works?" So will take advice from cabinet and elsewhere.

And that is it. Hate to admit it, but I got really bored and kinda spaced out. Probably cause his voice remains so calm and he doesn't get rattled. Unlike other people who get all snarky!

Caroline Overington Rings VTAY

2007-11-21T14:27:00.000+10:00

About a week ago I wrote a post about L'Affaire Overington in which, entirely as ridicule, I said:

That was written after Overington scrawled a column saying Ecuyer planned to direct preferences away from Newhouse, who it seems she's been sharpening an axe for. Apparently the two of them [Newhouse and Ecuyer] went out for a few weeks, it didn't work out, and now she's back to boil his pets and derail his political career, er, run as an independent. Anyway, here's the money email.

"Too early! My girl, you've got four weeks!!
Please preference Malcolm. It would be such a good front page
story. Also, he'd be a loss to the parliament and George - forgive
me - would be no gain. ;)
— Email from Caroline Overington to Danielle Ecuyer"

How did she manage to type that with the Member for Wentworth's member in her mouth?

I thought it was pretty funny, because clearly I am a very funny man. All twelve of my readers agree with me. It would appear my attempts at humour have fallen flat in the offices of The Australian, hereafter referred to as the Government Gazette. Caroline Overington emailed us today asking to talk with us. She was cagey about what she wanted to discuss, insisting on a phone call. We agreed, reluctantly, because we wanted to find out what it was about. What could we have written on our tiny, barely-read blog to prompt a call out of the blue from a senior writer and columnist with The Australian? A two-time winner of the Walkley Award for investigative journalism (2004 and 2006) and recipient of the Sir Keith Murdoch Award for Excellence in Journalism, for a series of articles on the Iraq wheat sales scandal (excellent work, credit where it's due!).

Well, to summarise our conversation: She demanded we remove the statement. First it was because her kids might see it. I replied that we were nowhere near the top 5 pages on a google search. Then it was because she was a married woman and the statement implied she was having an affair with a government member, which just couldn't stand. I defy anyone to look at the context of the statement and come to a conclusion that I was even implying that an affair was going on between them. Of course, she made the statement, not I. Also I note that in her emails to George Newhouse she stated that she was separated. "Not married, me. Separated five months ago."

She repeatedly brought up the marriage thing. She threatened legal action. I replied that I thought we'd be safe for reasons of absurdity of the statement, satire, and comment, otherwise we wouldn't have stand up comics. She claimed such defences wouldn't extend to our 'political' blogs. I asked her whether she'd like to legitimise a non existent implication by dragging us to court. She wouldn't answer, or state that she was in fact going to take legal action. She then implied that Malcolm Turnbull wouldn't be able to let the non-existent implication stand, suggesting he might sue us. I didn't enquire as to whether she had consulted Mr Turnbull or if it was just another click of the ratchet in her attempt to heavy us. Prior to accepting Ms Overington's call google analytics revealed someone had gotten to the post in question via the keywords "Caroline Overington husband" That generated only two hits. In the end I refused to remove the text she requested.

1) There was no implication the two of them were in a sexual relationship. The context of the statement was of her extraordinary attempts (bending over backwards, if you will) to be of service to Mr Turnbull. I did not speculate as to any relationship between them nor did I imply there was one. That she continually brought this up mystifies me.

2) The statement is patently absurd to a reasonable person and was made in a satirical context. There is no way anyone could think I was implying Ms Overington had a sexual relationship with Mr Turnbull. If I said John Howard was 20 feet tall, farts mustard gas and eats Chinese immigrant babies would I be liable to be sued?

3) I believe in free speech. If this is an issue of Ms Overington defending her reputation, why doesn't she go after the people who claim she's biased in her columns? We are defending our right to make fun of her. Certainly, if we're going to start loading the torpedo tubes, we should mention email threats to ruin Mr Newhouse's reputation. Something about houses, glass and stones in there. Also why is Ms Overington allowed to violate the spirit, if not the letter, of the electoral act and defend herself by claiming it's all a joke? Why don't we get similar consideration?

4) This is my latest bank statement.

Ms Overington can lawyer up and come get it if she wants. Perhaps she can split it with Mr Turnbull. I won't give up my $43 without a fight. Or my 71 cents.

It goes back to what I said about Australian media personalities constantly trying to insert themselves into their stories. If Ms Overington hadn't been engaged in doing just that she wouldn't be stuck trying to defend her hard earned reputation. It is simply beyond belief that a professional journalist would contact people like us and use legal threats (whose lawyers will she use, News Ltd's or her own?) to shut us up. Not only that but that she would allege that the law makes no exception for satire or comment in Australia. Watch out Crikey, you'll be out of business before long. I also find it odd that a journalist would be so ignorant of the Streisand effect. You know those thrillers where a guy's walking down the street and someone gives him something out of the blue and all of a sudden everyone's trying to kill him and he thinks he doesn't know anything but it turns out he does? I feel like I'm in one.

Vaile's search for a scapegoat

2007-11-21T13:16:00.000+10:00

Update: Mark Vaile has been nominated for the Dead Parrots Society Hall of Fame.

Mark Vaile has been the weakest link in the Coalition team this year. Doesn't seem to have recovered from the AWB scandal. This is despite giving up the Trade portfolio so that he could nurse the Nationals at home. Babysitting Barnaby Joyce seems to have been a full time job as we have seen this week with Joyce's support of Labor's proposed IR changes. Too busy to keep any sort of profile as Deputy Prime Minister. I bet a poll of electors would find they think Costello holds that job.

Anyway, he's worked out what the problem is, why they're losing the campaign:

Federal Nationals leader Mark Vaile says he would have liked the business community to have done more to support the Coalition's industrial relations laws during the election campaign. Business didn't back WorkChoices enough: Vaile (ABC News, 21 November 2007)

I'm sure Howard would have liked Mark Vaile to have done more all round. More of the blame game next week if the polls are to be believed.

Original Post at: Labor View from Broome

A vote for us is a vote for being fucked by your furniture!

2007-11-20T23:01:00.000+10:00

JOHN HOWARD has sought to turn his most unpopular policy into a key pitch for re-election by promising Work Choices would become "part of the furniture" if the Coalition wins on Saturday.

SMH

As a public servant, I have been immune (thus far) from the changes to the IR laws. But that doesn't mean that I will be in the future. On the contrary, there are already moves to make WorkChoices applicable to the public service.

I have worked in the private sector before, so I know that as a public servant I have it pretty damn good. While I bemoan the fact that because of the nature of the PS you have quite a number of workers who are useless but it is too difficult to get rid of them with the current bureaucratic processes, I still hold onto my entitlements as if my life depended on it, because in some respects, it does.

I'm not afraid to admit that the thought of WorkChoices becoming "part of the furniture", scares the bejebus out of me.

But the Government has suppressed hundreds of pages of documents that could contradict its pledge not to take its industrial relations reforms further. The documents canvass options for another wave of reform, but Channel Seven has lost a battle to expose them under freedom-of-information laws. Labor's deputy leader, Julia Gillard, last night accused the Government of a pre-election cover-up on Work Choices. "The Australian people have a right to know what the Howard Government is hiding," she said.

Tonight on the 7:30 report, Howard claimed that WorkChoices as it is now doesn't need any "refinement". But really, this is the man who didn't even go to the last election declaring that they'd try to completely overhaul the IR system. When they won control of the senate, my heart sank - I knew there were three things that were inevitable: VSU, full sale of Telstra and the gutting of the IR system. I was right on all three.

There is no doubt in my mind that should the government get back in, they will try to remove ALL unfair dismissal laws. And that will just be the start of it.

They will make further changes to healthcare. Reducing state funding or taking over completely.

Likewise education. Education will come under federal control. While I agree there needs to be consistency between the states in terms of curriculum, changes will consist of more than that if Julie Bishop gets her way.

If the federal government can just walk in and make changes to the big three, and ignore the issues surrounding the environment, what is to stop them from choosing to overturn state laws they don't agree with? Sounds totalitarian doesn't it? Don't think it will happen? I am being alarmist? Maybe. But I sure as hell don't want to take the risk.

There are bigger stakes in this election than which party will give the bigger tax cut. Or what is going to happen to interest rates. Or what percentage of the Rudd government is made up of "union officials". The rights of every person in this country are at stake.

Fraser critical of the "values" of our government

2007-11-20T22:04:00.000+10:00

IN DECIDING how to vote, Australians should make a judgement about which set of policies will do best for the future, will build a stronger nation and invest in the basic fabric that will enable Australia to compete throughout the world. Above all, we need to return to our traditional sense of fairness, justice and again guarantee the rule of law and due process for all people. We need a vision for the future based on these values.

Education is a basic priority. Too much government money has been taken out of education and the Government has sought to impose political solutions. Freedom and integrity of fundamental research should be re-established. Government should protect these attributes.

The environment is a major issue. It has been significantly debated but I do not believe either party has set out a comprehensive plan to make sure that Australian water is used effectively and in the national interest. One thing is clear, water is a national asset and its final use cannot be determined by price alone. We need to define a set of priorities.

[....]

When Menzies began the Liberal Party, he emphasised the need to maintain the rule of law, due process and search for the ideal of equal access to the law. In Australia we now know that these matters cannot be taken for granted. Too many are saying we cannot abide by basic democratic principles, we cannot in all cases support the rule of law and fight terrorism. It is easy for leaders to frighten people and make them believe their own principles must be breached. But it is a false argument. It represents a significant victory for the terrorists. Australians have been abused in foreign jails, in Immigration Department detention centres. Australians have been deported, children have been imprisoned and no one has been held accountable. This is, indeed, a national disgrace.

The new security laws have virtually turned ASIO into a secret police. In recent days we have seen how the authorities dealt with Tony Tran, allegedly unlawfully detained for more than five years. We have heard of the case of Izhar-ul-Haque. ASIO's activities in the latter case were roundly condemned by Justice Michael Adams from the bench. He accused ASIO of grossly improper conduct. If The Age report is accurate, it reads like the activities of a secret police in a dictatorship. That is not the Australia we know and love.

We do not know how many people have been affected by such conduct because in many cases new laws prevent publication. We should be enraged by such behaviour and act to end it.

We should again proclaim the basic principles of the rule of law and due process, the reality of Australian values, as our strongest attributes in fighting terrorism and creating a better world.

These issues have not been to the forefront of debate. They should have been. They will determine the character of Australia for years to come. Which party will best advance that Australia?

The Age

Straws. Clutching.

2007-11-20T21:26:00.000+10:00

JOHN Howard has warned Australians they risk electing a Labor-Greens alliance that would impose a new national direction and conduct radical experiments with their values and institutions.

[....]

Mr Howard warned that a Labor victory would mean a Labor-Greens Senate majority and an era of social re-engineering, with policy changes on drugs, education, social issues and political correctness in conflict with his social conservatism.

GG

Ohhhhh. Not *gasp* policy changes! On drugs! Social issues! Political correctness (I'm not even sure what that is - maybe LGBT? Since when is that PC? I would have thought common sense.)

Unbelievable.

"There will be a return of political correctness. There will be a softening in relation to things like drugs. You will get a less socially conservative country at the very least.

A less socially conservative country would be good. The conservatism in this country gives me the shits. Not to mention that I believe it is code for racist, sexist, homophobic policies and laws which allow for people to indulge themselves in those kinds of behaviours and beliefs because they know it is acceptable at the highest level of government.

Asked about the future under the Coalition, Mr Howard said Peter Costello "will be elected unopposed" as his successor.

Yeah, "elected unopposed" by the Liberal Party. NOT the Australian people. Sure, you can say people who vote for Howard to continue as PM are giving the green light to Costello. But really, given Howard's previous behaviour, do people really believe that he would step down for Costello? I have no doubt that if he was returned, something dramatic (real or imagined or engineered) would occur and Howard would declare that it is in the best interests of the country for him to remain as leader.

By his own admission, Howard will be using this week to push forward a negative view of the ALP. Be prepared for the next three days to be nothing but bitching and moaning and the government on its knees begging the electorate to ignore WorkChoices, AWB, children overboard, an illegal war, the systematic eroding of the rights of pretty much everyone except business, VSU, and the regular bending over and taking every which way from the US.

Yeah John Howard. You hold the interests of the entire country at heart. Excuse me while I go and ROTFLMAO at this claim.

Howard on the 7.30 Report

2007-11-20T19:39:00.000+10:00

Slippery right to the end. He won't release their secret plan on Ultra-Workchoices but expects us to trust them when they say there is no secret plan.

He just invented a parallel history where Keating didn't get rid of centralise wage fixing. Reckons Keating, who made it idependent, didn't respect the independence of the reserve bank. Jesus Christ. Voters clearly think the economy is a '64 Chevy and Howard is the dancing Elvis doll on the dashboard that keeps it running because it's 'lucky'. He's lying and spinning in all directions. Howard has been thoroughly exposed by O'Brien for the mediocre fraud he is. I feel sorry for him, almost. He looks lost.

Howard wants to have everything both ways! He denies running a fear campaign. Claims we all love him really because he's a 'good economic manager' (thanks, mug punters). He replies to accusations of running a fear campaign by pulling out the Rudd=risk. Now he's running the Greens fear campaign. Uh oh, nuclear power... He pretty much admits he has a plan for a nuclear Australia. He is so slippery, Kerry's nailing him to the wall. Kerry nails him on stealing Rudd's education revolution but taking it back to the '50s. Keeps trying to bring back the culture wars. This goes back to an earlier post I made on Rudd's neutralisation of the media. Without his media chums Howard's wedges just look like the rantings of an old codger whose views belong in a dusty museum hallway.

Kerry goes after Howard's excessive advertising. Apparently he won't respond to Kerry's question on asking Downer to canvass the party room on his behalf. Claims that he won't lose his seat. I saw the terror in his eyes just then. Hahaha "My focus is my focus." Hahahaha, Kerry says goodbye to Howard as if this is the last time (we can only hope).

It's easy to feel sorry for Howard, now that his pathetic empire of lies and deceit seems to be collapsing around him. I do feel sorry. I feel sorry for refugees left to drown or rot in island gulags so he could have another crack at the wine cellar. I feel sorry for the 4,000,000 plus Iraqis made sport of the wind and sun, refugees from their country so Howard could feel like a big man. I feel sorry for the soul of our country, tarnished by eleven years of corrosion. For Mr Howard I feel... nothing. He'll wander off into a lavender retirement, pensioned off with all the creature comforts. Maybe there'll be a newspaper column to vent his bitter, twisted spleen on. Meanwhile the rest of us will get back to scrubbing the dirt off our national identity.

Video.

Broadband

Dial-up

Not long now!

2007-11-20T19:35:00.001+10:00

Howard is on the 7:30 report.

He's such a fucking slimy prick.

Claiming it's not true that the public wasn't told about WorkChoices before the last election. Why, everyone knew that they were going to get rid of unfair dismissal laws!

Fucking iniquitous, malevolent, duplicitous SOB.

Kerry O'Brien appears to be dumbfounded by a claim Howard is making about Keating's IR changes. Apparently, the only reason employment went up was because we were coming of a recession (5 years before), which means there will always be an increase in employment. Nothing to do with what Keating did Kerry, you silly man!

"Mr Keating had no respect for the Reserve Bank." Howard, you have no respect for the Australian people. Not to mention - how is claiming that you control interest rates showing respect for the RB? Fucker.

Now he's fooling himself into imagining people aren't throwing things at the tele while he's on.

"Labor governments at every level" Really? You've never mentioned that before!

Ooooooohhhhhh, now da Greenies are da baddies! Boo hiss Greens!

"We won't be building nuclear power stations." Of course not. You'll be hiring contractors from the US to do it!.

I can't even look at the bastard without wanting to just jump up and slap him. He also reminds me of that relative who gets drunk at family events and bails you up in the corner and demands you to acknowledge that everything he says is right and everything you say is wrong.

"I believe in the accountability of public figures in the serious media." I think he crossed his fingers behind his back when he said that. I'm surprised he didn't choke on his own words.

Ruddy is on tomorrow.

"The Australian" Editorial 23/11/07

2007-11-20T09:14:00.000+10:00

"The Australian" Editorial
Friday 23 November 2007

It's (not just marking) time!

A decisive win on Saturday is essential for the health of Australian politics. The Australian Labor Party may need 52% to gain a majority. The Coalition parties could scrape home with less than 50%, perhaps even less than 49%. Our democracy would be severely damaged by such a result.

The disillusionment amongst younger voters would be profound. Their interest in politics has revived recently with the desire for positive change and the belief that it can be achieved. It is not just changing the government but reinvigorating our whole approach to politics. Climate change and broadband are more than policy issues for the decision-makers of the coming decades. They are iconic. Symbols of new ways of shaping the future.

Many of those who are turning against the Howard government believe that his team are politically and morally bankrupt. Some of the more glaring examples include: Iraq, the AWB bribes scandal, the shoddy treatment of Australian citizens such as Cornelia Rau and Vivian Alvarez Solon, the political manipulation of the Hicks, Habib and Haneef cases, the orgy of taxpayer-funded propaganda, blatant pork barrelling, the expedient about-faces on global warming and reconciliation, and the cynical introduction of Work Choices. The vilification of refugees and the abuse of basic human rights have reached new lows. The first ever joint John Howard/Peter Costello interview smacked of the kind of hypocrisy that young people reject.

The government’s strength has been the economy but Kevin Rudd has presented a convincing case that Labor will be effective economic managers. The debate has become more complex than three years ago. It's not just interest rates or a booming mining sector. Uncontrolled growth, poor productivity and skills shortages have brought financial stress to both the business community and individuals. Mortgage stress and housing affordability are not just catch phrases. Growing personal debt and unfettered balance of trade deficits present challenges that neither side has yet to face. The exchange rate cannot be sustained at such high levels without major ramifications for whole sectors of the economy, especially exporters.

The Liberal party seem to have run out of steam. They are increasingly out of touch and tainted by political expediency and self-preservation. The treasurer has had ample opportunity to present his vision and plans for Australia’s future. He has failed this challenge. He has been very poor alternative leader of the opposition.

Leadership is about creative ideas and renewal. It is not just marking time. We urge the Australian voters to elect a Rudd Labor government with a clear mandate for the revitalisation that we urgently need.

(Rupert Murdoch's election editorials are always so predictable. I thought I'd write my own. If you have your own or would like to make additions, please use comments below.)

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Newspoll: 54-46

2007-11-19T22:53:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 9:51 pm under Federal Election 2007

Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Rudd on Rove

2007-11-19T13:44:00.000+10:00

LABOR leader Kevin Rudd has shown a more relaxed side on a television chat show as the election campaign enters its last week.

Mr Rudd has refused to claim election victory despite polls showing that he has a commanding lead but told the Rove show last night that he could deliver a knockout blow to Prime Minister John Howard - in a bar-room brawl.

When the Labor leader told host Rove McManus he didn't hate Mr Howard - he just wanted him out of government - McManus suggested Mr Rudd would still beat him in a fight.

"If I couldn't, wouldn't there be a real problem?" Mr Rudd said.

"The guy's 20 years older than me."

Mr Rudd also fielded questions during a light-hearted interview about turning gay, eating ear wax and the difference between a nerd and a geek.

The prime minister has so far declined invitations to appear on the talk show.

news.com.au

We caught the second half of this and despite Rudd's cop out on who would he turn gay for (his wife, bizzarely) his performance was excellent. He came across as accessible and it was obvious he was making a gesture towards young voters (I'll come to where you are instead of demanding you come to me like Howard). If he didn't have it before the youth vote will be all but sewn up after that. It's nice to see a politician not terrified of the electorate like John Howard obviously is.

Seat du jour: Herbert

2007-11-19T13:35:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 2:17 am under Federal Election 2007

The Townsville-based electorate of Herbert was created at federation, when it extended north to Cairns and south to Mackay. The latest redistribution has maintained a long-running trend by drawing the electorate into Townsville, reducing its area from 1,997 square kilometres to 389 through the transfer of territory south of the city to Dawson. Support for Labor is stronger in and around the town centre than in the interior suburbs, especially after the latter produced particularly strong Liberal swings in 2004

Full post at The Poll Bludger

The Senate: Western Australia

2007-11-19T13:05:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 5:11 pm under Federal Election 2007

Western Australia has produced variations on the same result since the first six-seat half-Senate election in 1990: three seats for the Liberals, two for Labor, plus one for a minor party. That party was the Greens in 1990, 1993 and 2004, with the election of Jo Vallentine, Dee Margetts and Rachel Siewert respectively. The Democrats won the seat in 1996 and 2001, when Andrew Murray was elected and re-elected, and in 1998, when Brian Greig was elected.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

The Hoon for Ryan

2007-11-19T12:53:00.000+10:00

Looks like Michael Johnson, our local member for fixing potholes, cleaning up graffiti, hooning and everything else except federal issues, especially if they involve John Howard, has put his foot in it.

We’ve all seen the Coalition local campaign themes of “cracking down on local crime“, “making our roads safer” and my particular favourite - combating “hooning, graffiti and drugs on our streets“.

The problem with these types of campaigns though, is that there’s always some silly knob out there that puts his foot in it.

I present to you Michael “Hoonster” Johnson, the Liberal member for Ryan.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

John Howard: "the world will not end tomorrow"

2007-11-19T08:15:00.000+10:00

Great news! Our Prime Minister continues to sit on his hands.

CLIMATE CHANGE is a serious challenge, but the world will not end tomorrow because of it, says John Howard. It's so reassuring. Hope he's read the IPCC report. Perhaps it will make good retirement reading next week.

A sample from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Table SPM.2. Examples of some projected regional impacts

Australia and New Zealand

• By 2020, significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur in some ecologically rich sites including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics;

• By 2030, water security problems are projected to intensify in southern and eastern Australia and, in New Zealand, in Northland and some eastern regions;

• By 2030, production from agriculture and forestry is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire. However, in New Zealand, initial benefits are projected in some other regions.;

• By 2050, ongoing coastal development and population growth in some areas of Australia and New Zealand are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding.

Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(16 November 2007)

Please visit the IPCC website for the full details. This is not the time for blinkered sceptics like our PM!

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

One Nation: Two Peoples

2007-11-18T09:26:00.000+10:00

Just when it seemed that it had become a presidential campaign in Kalgoorlie, with few personal insights from the two main contenders, One Nation have reminded voters what they stand for. According to the Kal Miner, a regional newspaper owned by the West Australian:

Race relations emerged as an election issue in Kalgoorlie yesterday.
One Nation candidate Derek Major said police failed to target indigenous people in Kalgoorlie-Boulder for fear of being branded racist.

But his claims have been refuted by local indigenous leaders and other candidates.
Racial claims refuted (Kalgoorlie Miner, 17th November 2007)

Barry Haase, current Liberal member, disagreed with One Nation, blaming a lack of police resources. ALP candidate Sharon Thiel pointed to the high incarceration rate of indigenous people in prisons in refuting Major’s claims.
That’s the closest we’ve come to some hard election news lately if you don’t count this bit of info-tisement on the same day:

Centrelink manager Glen Jones was presented with a national award for exemplary service yesterday.

Presenting the award Kalgoorlie MHR Barry Haase said Mr Jones had done a “hell of a good job” with a “hell of a lot of staff”.
Mr Jones acts as a point of contact for Mr Haase for nearly all the Centrelink offices from Broome to Esperance.
Award for Centrelink head (Kalgoorlie Miner, 17th November 2007)

How's that for cutting edge journalism during the last weeks of the campaign!

Meanwhile back in Broome, an inquest is being held into aboriginal deaths at which it was revealed there is a waiting list for public housing of 863. Kimberley housing wait list nearly 900 (The West Australian, 15th November 2007)

The overwhelming majority of those on the list are aboriginal people. I have not seen any comments by the candidates so far.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Ad Watch – The differences between Rudd and Howard

2007-11-18T00:46:00.000+10:00

Posted by the piping shrike at Saturday, November 17, 2007

At first this blog hated this ad. It was annoying, a bit smart-arse and there was a slight undertone of making Rudd seem like a lightweight, which with coalition ads suggesting that Rudd couldn’t stand up to the unions, did not seem like a good idea.

Full post at The Piping Shrike

Rudd's First 100 Days

2007-11-18T00:06:00.000+10:00

As the final countdown to the November 24 poll begins, Mr Rudd outlined to The Sun-Herald his top five policy goals for the first 100 days if Labor forms government.

Declaring Christmas and Boxing Day the only holidays the first Labor cabinet in 11 years would enjoy over the summer break if victorious, he promised to oversee the implementation of policies in all portfolios.

"I believe leadership is about leading, with clear-cut direction," he said.

If victorious Mr Rudd wants to become known as "the education prime minister". He set five key goals for a Labor government's first three months:

1. Ratify the Kyoto Protocol. "We need to make sure we are around the negotiating table immediately ... for the next round of commitments on reducing global greenhouse gas emissions."

2. Start immediately to negotiate with the states on reform of hospital practices. "That is of crucial importance - we've got $2.5billion on the table but we'll need to frame a co-operative agreement around performance measures."

3. Begin the roll-out of the high-speed broadband network, along with connections to schools. In tandem, open up tenders for the $1 billion school computer program.

4. "Hit the ground running" with the implementation of the $2.5 billion program to upgrade trades training centres in secondary schools. "I went back to C block [the technical faculty] at [his old school] Nambour High the other day - it hadn't changed since I was there. It was like walking into a museum."

5. Begin negotiations with the Americans and Iraqis for the staged withdrawal by mid next year of Australian combat troops. "I have been very blunt with President Bush ... I have a no-surprises policy when it comes to these things."

Mr Rudd said a Labor government would start work immediately. "Christmas and Boxing Day we can have off, then it's to work."

The Labor leader said he wanted to be known as "an education prime minister", someone who didn't just talk about education but fundamentally transformed education as funded, delivered and measured from early childhood through to rocket science.

"This is the pathway to every person's future opportunities."
SMH

I think we're going to be just fine under a Rudd government. I'm a bit suspicious but why commit to a numbered list of things you're going to do and get them printed in national newspapers if you aren't going to do them? I mean people will be able to drag this out, you don't make a rod for your own back like that unless you're serious. I suppose it's always possible this would be a never ever GST moment but somehow I doubt it. Personally I feel like we'll be getting a PM who'll govern for us instead of for the over 55s.

I'm not given to flights of optimism and have little use for narcissistic nationalism but, damn it, Rudd makes me hopeful for our nation, hopeful in a way that can only be betrayed. I just can't see how or where it's going to come. Is he pulling out of Iraq to invade Iran? Does he secretly work for the Exclusive Brethren?

That list is like a 14 year old boy waking up next to a naked, horny Salma Hayek. It just can't be real, but there it is, and suddenly instead of enjoying your dream you've got her under the lights, quizzing her about how she got in, who sent her and what happened to her clothes. Even if he only does two things on that list it'll have been worth it. He's already lashed himself to mast on accountability so he's going to have very little room to maneuver. I guess it all depends on if the Libs fuck this up with their firewall, desperation strategy and the defeated coalition rump led by a smirking Costello frustrate him at every step.

Weekend YooToob

2007-11-17T17:41:00.000+10:00

Go for Growth!

Leave John Howard Alone!

Tony Abbott Admits Workchoices is a Rapefest

Endgame?

2007-11-17T13:58:00.000+10:00

Possum's Pollytics reckons the Libs will implode next week as the reality of their situation becomes apparent. Is it really that dire? If it is, what has Howard got left in the hat?

We are about to enter the most dangerous week the Liberal Party has ever faced in the history of its not inconsiderable life.

The political and media system has caught up to what we’ve been saying for the last 5-6 months (this site has actually been running 6 months to the day, as of yesterday).

The message is clear - the game is over.

That is what makes it so dangerous.

The polls are consistent, the fantasy of “Liberal strategists” being able to hide under the petticoat of fictitious marginal seat polling because “they’re closer than the national polls suggest” now looks like the façade it actually always was. The media have picked their winner, Uncle Rupert has moved behind Rudd in The Oz to match what has in reality been happening with his Tabloids and the Smage for weeks. This very morning Centrebet blew out to $4.60 - reflecting that even the punters are starting to get it, punters which haven’t got very much at all over the last 5 months.

Full post at Possums Pollytics

Rudd vs The Media

2007-11-16T15:18:00.000+10:00

Kevin Rudd has declined to appear on the ABC Insiders, choosing instead to appear on Rove. One of the features of this election has been the skillful manipulation of the media by Rudd. Throughout the campaign he's had the whip hand in the relationship, all but directing the media spotlight. First there's the heavy reliance on the internet to short circuit the media. This is important not because it reaches more people than the mass media, it doesn't. What it does do is force the media to simply report a prepackaged message. Instead of paying for advertising or appearing on carefully crafted ambush talk-shows Rudd has been able to control his message by creating a new supply of information he controls, forcing the media to cover it. Several times internet announcements have been used to hijack the media's very slow train of thought. This is significant in part because it shows his team 'gets' the nature of the internet as a medium but also because it recognises how our media behave. We're not ranked near the bottom of OECD press freedom for nothing. Australian media exists largely as a vehicle for the larger ambitions of the personalities within it. As such it must generate constant controversy with each personality vying to bring you the latest bun fight. This is the role they play for Howard. He only sets the wedge, the media hammer away at it.

If you look at the campaign, the media have tried to create the kind of petty squabbling they need to feed off. The strip club incident, the me-too copycat nonsense, the tax policy beat up etc. each time they've tried to turn the campaign into a bitchy scandal and Rudd into just another politician. That's not to say he isn't just another politician but his astute handling of the media has helped him sidestep the wedges Howard has tried. Take a look at the campaign launches. The media were caught flat footed by Rudd's exquisite reverse wedge on Howard. They all thought it would be two competing porkfests, instead Rudd chose the second last week of the campaign to put daylight between himself and Howard. In the context of the polls the campaign launches were meaningless and yet somehow Rudd was on the front page of practically every paper in the country simply for being different from Howard. Even now, trapped in the old media paradigm Howard's calling press conferences to attack Rudd's economic credentials, completely unaware that the battle was fought and lost two days ago, an eternity in Rudd's tactics.

So what does it all mean? When you compare Rudd's mastery of our rather brainless media elite to Howard's hostile, ham fisted approach (cultivate a set of servile, wooden-headed sycophants and give them access) does this mean they'll be less able to hold Rudd accountable for anything? Have we got a Blair on our hands? At least in terms of media management. Rudd is nowhere as cold and dead, as middle management as Blair. It bears thinking about.

John Howard's Dead Parrots Society

2007-11-16T13:02:00.000+10:00

While Howard and his cronies wait for something to turn up and they continue their mantra of empty smears, all Labor supporters should carpe diem.

Seize the day, enjoy it to the full. Might as well savour the next week. A week's a long cliche in politics!

If you've missed any of the LaborView videos, spend some time visiting the Broome Voices series for some serious reflections by local people.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Downer McClelland Debate

2007-11-15T15:50:00.001+10:00

Downer: Labor are soft on people smuggling. Our bilateral trade agreements are awesome [not really]. We need to fight poverty in our regions (by not increasing the proportion of GDP as aid). Tries to take credit for drop in east Asian poverty. starts bashing Rudd. Keeps bashing Rudd. Labor hates developing countries and wants to plunge them into poverty. Nonsense about Peter Garrett was right. [muffled laughter from audience at Downer]. Claims Labor loves Bali bombers. [hahahaha], claims Iraq is improving. His voice breaks as he lies and cherry picks ridiculous statistics. We are winning the war on turr. Labor criticise us for being too tough. Claims we are a leader on climate change [hahaha god the man's a laugh a minute]. More rubbish [seriously, do they think they can just keep repeating things and they'll become true?]. Claims that giving the Indonesian govt. a pot of money will stop deforestation [haha]. Claims his foreign policy is built on Australian interests [oh, like aw?]. Blah blah, Labor inexperience, not only do the libs have special magic fairy dust to keep the economy growing they have magic dust to keep the terrorist at bay.

McClelland: Foreign policy has been bipartisan in the past. The first thing they did was stop being a good international citizen. We've lost our reputation, that's bad. Failed to ratify Kyoto, they've made us international pariahs. National security? Invading Iraq made us less safe. A better mate keeps his mates out of stupid fights. No WMD, a little wise counsel could have prevented this. 600,000 dead, 4 million displaced for Downer's “success”. Iraq is a terrorism hotbed. They knew it was going to increase terrorism (Csgrove and Keelty). What happened to months instead of years? They never had a plan for the mission. WMD to democracy, to protecting the Japanese, to oil to everything else. We're the only govt. that doesn't have a plan. Busts out AWB! 300 million had been paid by the AWB to Saddam right when our troops were risking their lives in the gulf. Downer was the minister responsible and is to blame for rorting sanctions. Downer claims he didn't know anything. We were Saddam's biggest bribers, no one has been held accountable. Frazer said awb wouldn't have happened on his watch because there was ministerial accountability.Iif Labor is elected we'll make sure we have our own voice and we'll focus on our region.

Sandra O'Malley AAP: Downer, you talked about international relationships? Will you stay on longer than you have?

Downer: I've been around for a long time... blathers on. Claims McCelland has no vision, says he has exciting visions for the future [who shall I bribe next?]

McClelland: Leadership speculation.

Brendan Nicholson, Age: Downer, when you've talked about Iraq you say, whatever you might think of our decision to go in, do you have any personal regrets? if you had to do it over again, would you? McClelland, I'm too dumb to realise you plan on removing only combat troops, please explain.

Downer: it was all about removing Saddam, things in iraq are wonderful! That's why I have to visit secretly! Invading Iraq was an awesome idea, everyone should get behind the US!

McClelland: Iraq has been a massive disaster, humanitarian, strategic, made terrorists bolder etc. Total clusterfuck. We're withdrawing our combat troops. We'll be keeping transport stuff, aricraft and ships.

Jeff barkers fin rev: A whole bunch of people argued for the elimination of nukes. Downer, you got rid of Labor's Canberra Commission initiative to get rid of nukes. You're a lot of talk about ending nukes but you sell uranium to non-NPT nations.

Downer bitches about not getting a turn previously. He did but he's a whiny little so and so. his thin, reedy wails continue till the moderator tells he had his turn.

Downer: Waffles and lies. We didn't get rid of the Canberra commission, we ignored it. More nonsense about the nuclear test ban treaty, violated by France, Pakistan and India. [Downer rejects your reality and substitutes his own]. We can't tell our best friends to talk about getting rid of nukes, [Despite saying that we could use our influence in his opening speech].

McClelland: we should be trying to ban nukes.

Graham Develle? Australian: Fiji, Solomons, PNG all basket cases. what are you going to about it?

Mclelland: The govt.'s tried but they haven't been able to develop ministerial level relationships. No one in our region likes us. We should stop reacting and sit down and develop progressive solutions with them. We have a partnership centre so we can cooperate.

Downer: Those Polys only respect power! You don't want to look weak or the nig nogs will walk all over you. Claims that he's proud he's pissed off all our neighbours because you have to teach them what's what. [I can't see how patronising ,states fiji has a 'coup culture', our neighbours hasn't worked]. He wrote Somare a letter [wow]. You need to bash these people around. [the man is a policy disaster area, South Australians should be even more ashamed of themselves].

unknown: What are acceptable means for interrogating terrorist suspects? Torture?

Downer: We have our own standards, [yes, ask David Hicks]. Blah blah, [ignores the fact that we keep handing them over to be tortured]. We're better than the terrorists. so long as we aren't sawing people's heads off on tv, we're the good guys.

McClelland: All torture does is create recruits. Even the Israeli supreme court ruled it illegal. Terrorists can only kill and destroy, only we can destroy our countries.

Unknown: Downer, you said you can speak French. Please speak some [hahahahaha] [laughter].

Downer: I can't speak French, ducks and weaves. He obviously can't speak a word of the language. Oh my god, what a wanker. He's twisting himself into knots. This is hilarious! claims he doesn't want to show off and impress us with his leet Francais SKILLZ. says [couldn't hear, double checked on video] "it's true if you speak French but I'm the minister for foreign affairs in Australia and he must speak French if you are Australian". [I knew it. You'd get thrown out of my standard 6 French class for something like that. And the pronounciation! Tourist French. It's an insight into how much of a pompous, self inflated, bumptious arse Downer is that he feels he can hold a candle to someone who can actually speak a language fluently while he is barely at schoolboy level] Everyone claps because they have no idea what he said, least of all Downer. His knowledge of the French language could be written on a very small matchbox.

McClelland: Europe is important.

unknown: will you accept Vietnam was a mistake? do you also agree in Iraq and 'nam intelligence was doctored. Since you dodged the previous question, would you do Iraq over again?

Downer: I did answer the question. I thought Iraq was the right decision. I'd kill all those people all over again. if Saddam had reestablished his doom nuke he could have strapped it to Godzilla and used it to threaten the world. Vietnam, dodges the question. The Liberals, we'd probably still be in Vietnam now.

McClelland: even the secdef in the US has said Iraq is a mistake. Hans Blix wanted a few more weeks to possibly save millions of lives. Iraq has been a disaster. thinks we have a right to mid-east oil.

unknown: [keep yelling at the radio]. You've lost interest in our region thanks to Iraq. McClelland, will we have a more independent foreign policy?

McClelland: Iraq has been a distraction. What about turr in the Philippines? most of al'Qaeda is in our region. We aim to be an independent voice for Australia. it'll be a partnership between equals.

downer: I'm always talking about Asia. we've given lots of money to Indonesia [that's part of the problem]. Claims there's been less turr in Asia [wha??]. Boring waffle.

closing:

McClelland: We'll reflect the values of the Australian people [please don't, i'm not interested in eternal war every time someone gets pick pocketed in Bali]. we'll do Kyoto and get rid of nukes, blah blah climate change. blah blah, we love America.

Downer: Everything's fine. Only we have the magic fairy dust that keeps everything fine. we'll tell you when it's safe to change. Booga booga union bosses. Begs voters to 'keep the team'.

Well that was painful. South Australia, fuck you. Stop voting in half-witted Downers. Please god, tell me he'll be retiring. and McClelland is even more boring than Stephen Smith. Are Labor really serious about foreign policy if they have a piece of beige linoleum tile as spokesman? I mean I know the Liberals just need someone to hold Bush's cheeks open for our dear leader but I was hoping for better from Labor. 0 points. I hope you ingrates appreciate that I'll never get that hour back. (If someone has some information about McClelland that'll really wow me, please let me know).

Entry Poll: First Votes for Labor

2007-11-14T22:08:00.000+10:00

Bardi Dancers at Stonehenge 2006

The Bardi Dancers from Western Australia's Ardyaloon (One Arm Point) community, who performed at Stonehenge last year, were among the first Australians to vote in the Federal election. Mobile polling booths visited there and Lombardina/Djarindjin communities on Tuesday.

My entry poll taken while handing out ALP how-to-vote cards at each place, confirmed overwhelming support for Labor. The One Arm Point polling took place in the open air in high 30's temperatures. Hopefully an omen for more open government in the near future. We have to keep trying!

Original Post at: Labor View from Broome

Campaign Launches

2007-11-14T17:24:00.001+10:00

Now that both 'campaign launches' are done we can compare the two. In terms of tone Howard's struck me as something of a farewell event. Most of the lengthy affair was spent bashing Labor, calling people communists etc. It's the 21st century people, reds under the bed might get a few chuckles in retirement homes but it falls flat for the rest of us.

On the other hand Rudd's launch was short and punchy, about 1/2 an hour. After a perfunctory kicking of the Liberals he got straight to business. I got the impression of this being the culmination of something he's been planning for a long time. It didn't seem seat of the pants and unlike Howard, he didn't need to try to recapture his ideological ground. It was obvious that Howard had strayed onto Rudd's turf in his attempt to match education spending. Listening to the two of them, especially Howard's contempt for computers, it was obvious that Howard didn't realise that Rudd has believed in this stuff since at least 1998. That conviction was certainly conveyed.

When it came to actual substance I was amazed at how little there was in terms of new stuff from Howard. He spent $9 billion basically copying the 'education revolution' and adding a little extra. There was no mention of any other issues, except to continue the sound-bite scare campaign. Mark Vaile, to his ever lasting shame, got up in front of a coalition crowd in Queensland and didn't have anything new to offer on water, rural infrastructure, rural health or the future of the bush. It continues to amaze me that there are people living in areas where you're pretty much dead by the time you're diagnosed with cancer still vote National.

On the Labor side, well you can't say that there's no vision. The stuff Rudd laid out, even if he only meant half of it (which I doubt) will light the way to a competitive future for Australia. A move away from maintaining an economy for its own sake and actually making it work for people. Personally I'm hopeful that it'll mean a move towards actually making use of the incredible potential Australians have. Also he's managed to spend less than the Liberals have which must really sting.

It's not perfect but at least the raw material is there. It looks like there's actually some intellectual realestate for new ideas to develop.

The Senate: Queensland

2007-11-13T23:25:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 5:28 am under Federal Election 2007

With two remarkable exceptions, Queensland has produced the same result at each half-Senate election since the first for six seats in 1990: two Labor, two Liberal, one Nationals and one Democrat. The first exception was in 1998, when One Nation overcame the punitive preference treatment that has thwarted them every other time by scoring a quota off their own bat. The winning candidate was Heather Hill, then a close confidante of Pauline Hanson, who foolishly sought re-election in the lower house rather than take the Senate seat herself.

Full post at The Pollbludger

Why I Don't Read Or Buy The Australian

2007-11-13T10:04:00.000+10:00

Caroline Overington, typewriter monkey at the Government Gazette, was busted yesterday for doing openly what her paper does secretly. Mediawatch got hold of emails of her begging Danielle Ecuyer, Glenn Close to George Newhouse's Michael Douglas, to direct her preferences to Malcolm Turnbull.

"Have you decided how to preference yet??"
— Email from Caroline Overington to Danielle Ecuyer"

"no sweetie it is way too early, let's see what happens on policy
from the major parties- if anything!!!!!!
— Email from Danielle Ecuyer to Caroline Overington"

That was written after Overington scrawled a column saying Ecuyer planned to direct preferences away from Newhouse, who it seems she's been sharpening an axe for. Apparently the two of them went out for a few weeks, it didn't work out, and now she's back to boil his pets and derail his political career, er, run as an independent. Anyway, here's the money email.

"Too early! My girl, you've got four weeks!!
Please preference Malcolm. It would be such a good front page
story. Also, he'd be a loss to the parliament and George - forgive
me - would be no gain. ;)
— Email from Caroline Overington to Danielle Ecuyer"

How did she manage to type that with the Member for Wentworth's member in her mouth?

"I’m disgusted to have been lobbied by a journalist from The
Australian for my preferences.
— Statement from Danielle Ecuyer to Media Watch"

Hilarious! Read the whole transcript to see Overington's pathetic 'i was only kidding!' denials. Of course there's no mention of this on the GG's website and Overington will continue her employment as one of Rupert's flying monkeys but it must mean things are getting pretty desperate in the Liberal bunker if they have to resort to this.

The media as a whole have been absolute rubbish the whole campaign. Take the 'me too' meme for instance. They jump all over Rudd when he copies the government, yet when Howard copies every single Labor party campaign plank at his campaign launch and adds no new policies of his own they don't start chanting 'me too'. How about just reporting the fucking news instead of trying to be part of it?

Howard Wedges Rudd, Wins Vital Orangutan Vote

2007-11-12T01:44:00.000+10:00

Well, that's the crucial orangutan demographic sewn up! I guess when Howard said he'd be targeting swinging voters this is what he really meant. Now for the lowland gorilla and the marmoset vote!

Seat du jour: Boothby

2007-11-11T10:11:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 5:10 am under Federal Election 2007

The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby extends from Brighton and Marino on the coast through the outer edge of the coastal plain to Myrtle Bank, and out into the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. These are established areas marked by a high level of religious observance and relatively few young families. The seat’s Liberal leaning is softened slightly by the area around the Mitsubishi plant at Clovelly Park, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Videos

2007-11-10T15:59:00.000+10:00

Some people might be getting all the videos on the main page playing at once without clicking them. I can imagine how annoying that is. If you're having this problem please leave a comment stating what browser you're using and which version it is. If we can't fix it we'll just link to them. Apologies for any annoyance or inconvenience.

Tony Jones talks to Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd

2007-11-09T17:58:00.000+10:00

Tony Jones discusses the upcoming election with Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd. Don't politicians ever answer the question anymore? Despite that it was interesting to hear Rudd get to defend himself against the meeetooo mantra the bobble-headed media have been chanting.

Broadband

Dial-up

The Senate: Victoria

2007-11-09T12:22:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 8:54 pm under Federal Election 2007, General

Welcome to part two in a behind-schedule seven-part series on the various Senate contests.

Along with Western Australia and South Australia, Victoria is one of three states where the Coalition has never failed to win three Senate seats since six-seat half-Senate elections began in 1990.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

The gay vote

2007-11-09T12:06:00.000+10:00

Homophobia is a disease afflicting all sorts of people, not always those you expect. I was recently told of an unmarried man describing homosexuality as an abomination, even though his work requires him to regularly wear a dress and a funny hat and engage in theatrics.

One group of people you would not expect to be homophobic are those who hold to a liberal philosophy. The word liberal means to be tolerant, to be free from prejudice and bigotry. Australia is often described as a liberal democracy, but our federal government still denies some Australian citizens’ basic financial equity because of their sexual preference.

It is said that dozens of Liberals and many members of the Cabinet support an end to homophobic laws governing financial and work-related entitlements. Yet nothing has changed. When asked why, the Liberal fingers point at John Howard.

If the Liberals are not stirred by liberalism, what about votes? Are there more votes in keeping homophobic laws than in giving gays equal superannuation? It surely doesn’t matter. One would think the Coalition being financially fairer to gays would hardly make any gay-hating bigots and homophobes switch to Labor.

It hasn’t in the past, so will the pink vote really count in any seat at this election? Will the May 2007 report of the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission, entitled Same-Sex: Same Entitlements, finally focus gay strategic voting?

See the rest over at Online Opinion

NewsLtd wear their heart on their sleeve

2007-11-09T11:37:00.000+10:00

Nice guys. Really nice.

When you see the following headline, you can't help but assume that Rudd is the rival mentioned:

My next thought was, "Surely they can't be treating the fact that Bob Brown is gay as news?"

But then you look further and it becomes clear. It is a story about Johnny's "Sorry, but I'm not sorry," comments yesterday, with a link to a story about an independent candidate:

If implying that Rudd is gay is their idea of a smear, it's pretty fucking pathetic. Trying to "force" Rudd to say publicly that he's not gay? Wankers.

Reading the headline, it also seems to say that Howard isn't sorry that his rival is gay. Hmmmm...but I thought Johnny hated The Gay? I thought The Gay will cause the irrevocable breakdown of society and anarchy will ensue? Or is the use of inverted commas meant to imply that Rudd is happy? Well, we know that!

But really, tell me - what does the election campaign of an independent who decides to use hot guys to win a vote have to do with the rise in interest rates? Aside from both being dubious ways to try to win votes.

(H/T Hoyden. See also The Orstrahyun)

Book: Still Not Happy, John!

2007-11-09T10:18:00.000+10:00

Yes, yes, here it is. The long awaited review. Sorry guys. Finished it over a week ago and have not been able to bring myself to do the review. Not because the book was bad (it wasn't), but because it meant that I'd have to delve back into the world of the coalition. Bleugh.

Just before the 2004 election, Margo released Not Happy John. A book that looked into the questionable things the Howard government had done since gaining power in 1996. The current book is an extension of the earlier one. After all, there has been 3 more years and this time they've had a Senate majority, and we all know how well that has turned out.

The only criticism I have of the book (may as well get it out of the way early), is that, it doesn't have as much new material as I was expecting. But, by the same token, it was good to be reminded yet again of the things that have gone on over the past 11 years. While I remember the fiasco that was GWB addressing parliament, I forgot about Costello trying to get media ownership laws changed (and the ultimate success in 2006).

There is a new introduction, and the chapters each have post-script with a 2007 update. Part 5 is entirely new.

Oh god, there are so many situations presented to you in the book of the government's duplicity, arrogance and abuse of power that I can't cover them all in detail. My only hope is to give you a brief overview of a few so that you can go searching for info on your own (or, better yet, grab the book and have a read for yourself). Strap yourselves in.

GWB's visit in 2003
Aside from the lunch that was held at The Lodge and the invite list Howard tried to stop being made public, we have the absolute travesty that was GWB addressing parliament and the manner in which it was controlled, the behaviour of our own politicians and the complete and utter disregard for propriety. Oh, and let's not forget the way that the Secret Service was allowed to take over the security in our house of parliament. This is the part of the book that pisses me off the most (and pretty much the entire book pisses me off). The general public were not allowed to enter PH while GWB was there. Protesters were not allowed outside (except at a distance). "Non-essential" PH staff were told to take the day off. Control of both security and the media was given to the Americans. Our own media were being told by foreigners what they could and could not do in our house of parliament! Finally, Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle were expelled from the House of Reps by the Speaker (it was a joint meeting) at the behest of Tony Abbott. This was a breach of House rules and was unconstitutional.

Hu Jintao addresses Parliament
The day after GWB addresses parliament Hu Jintao does so, even though there is an understanding that this honour would only ever be given to visiting American Presidents. Brown and Nettles were unable to attend due to the previous expulsion which held for 24 hours. Official guests of the Greens were banned from the gallery. They are Australian citizens who just happen to be of Tibetan and Chinese descent. Chinese Embassy staff are given permission to vet official guests. In addition, the Chinese embassy sent a letter to Fairfax (and presumably to NewsLtd) stating that they were not to publish an open letter or any advertisments that may be placed by anyone associated with the Tibetan independence movement or Falungong. Fairfax refused.

WMDs. War.
Do I really need to discuss this one? No, didn't think so. Except to say that Howard referred to anti-war protesters as a "mob".

Ill treatment of Kylie Russell
SAS Sergeant Andrew Russell was the first Australian casualty in Afghanistan. On 23 October 2003 GWB announced that he was going to lay a wreath in his honour at the War Memorial. Kylie Russell was not invited. The government didn't bother to contact her to tell her. Her MP, Graham Edwards, had to tell her of it. He found out when Bush addressed Parliament. It wasn't until a week later, at the behest of Edwards, did Howard bother to contact her. He sent a letter, but didn't send so much as a photo of the wreath laying. In 2004 the US government treated Kylie Russell better than her own did. The US Ambassador met her at a function in Perth that was honouring her husband. She later presented with photos of the Bush visit, personally signed to her. She was also invited to the US, was gifted with airfares and visited the White House, Pentagon and SAS base. John Howard has never made an effort to meet Kylie.

Tax deductions to NGOs
Costello has tried to revoke the tax concessions and deductibility of donations to NGOs who make an attempt to influence (change) existing policies and laws. If the tax status is changed for NGOs, then few people would donate money to them and they'd have to shut down. Thereby reducing the amount of criticism the government has to face. The purpose of NGOs is to influence government policy so to reduce the numbers to those who are in agreement with the government is to silence yet another avenue of the voice of the people.

***

Throughout the book you also have the complicit nature of the MSM. The fear they have of the current government. When the media is stifled to such a degree that those who aren't cheerleaders for the government are afraid of what ramifications there are of being honest with the public, then you have some serious problems. This has been highlighted by the recent report commissioned by the media.

The 2006 cross-media ownership changes don't help things. Australians are getting a more narrow view of what goes on not just in our country, but the world. We need more independent media to get the information out there.

I cannot recommend this book enough.

***

In addition to the above issues, we have to remember some other things that have occurred during the current government's reign:

AWB (not just the oil-for-food scandal itself, but the hands-tying of the Cole Commission)

WorkChoices

Cornelia Rau

Vivian Alvarez

David Hicks

Mamdouh Habib

Anti-Terrorism Act 2005

Changing the electoral enrolment rules, ban on prisoners voting (later overturned by the High Court)

Mohamed Haneef

Detention of asylum seekers

These are the ones I can think of off the top of my head. Feel free to remind me of more in the comments and I will add them to the list.

UPDATE:

Thought of two more (and I can't believe I forgot them!):

Marriage Act

Refusal to give same-sex couples the same rights as hetero couples

Economist predicts further rate rises

2007-11-09T00:45:00.000+10:00

Associate Professor Steve Keen on the hidden effects of rate rises in today's economy. Cuts through the numbers rubbish and states it in terms of relative value. Probably no one will watch but if you have a mortgage it wouldn't hurt...

Broadband

Dial-up

Hat tip to MB

Howard: Go for Broke

2007-11-08T19:02:00.000+10:00

Falling interest rates show the government are good economic managers.
Rising interest rates show the government are good economic managers.

Mortgages have gone up more than 25% since the last election.

Do you still believe the Liberal Lies!

Post this image to any doubters!

Original Post at: Labor View from Broome

Maybe Keating was right after all

2007-11-08T13:59:00.000+10:00

Posted by the piping shrike at Thursday, November 08, 2007

A criticism Keating made in his notorious Lateline interview last June was the return to Rudd’s campaign of former Labor campaigners Epstein and Gray, both of whom Keating blamed for the Beazley defeats. At the time, this blog thought it a bit unfair given the main problem in those years was that the party had lost its old role that Keating himself had helped to end. However, without knowing exactly what role these two are playing in Labor’s current campaign, he may have had a point.

Full post at The Piping Shrike

Go for growth!

2007-11-07T20:24:00.000+10:00

By the end of the last election campaign, my nose had grown this big!

So, the government's "Go for growth" campaign seems to be working. What? You haven't heard? Oh, well now. Let me show you it.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the official cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.75 per cent. Mortgage rates are expected to follow within days.

The Age

Yay! Growth!

Also, J-Ho has finally come out (no, not like that! That will be Lexy D you silly billy!) and admitted what many of us have always known - he pinches ideas and words from Pauline Hanson:

I know that, I sympathise with them, I don't like it.

I bet he said through barely moving lips too. 'Cause he was trying to hide his joy that his "Go for growth" campaign is working! Duh. Later, after all the reporters had left, he stripped off his suit, ran around naked, then jumped and rolled around in a pile of fiscal reports. Mmmmmmm, fiscal reports.

The only reason that the PM didn't stand in front of the "Go for growth" slogan today like he normally does is 'cause he didn't want to rub it in Ruddie's face how well they are doing. He doesn't want Ruddie to feel bad, and feel like he can't possibly win the election. Gotta give the young whipper-snapper a speck of confidence in his abilities as a leader before he is crushed like a bug underfoot! See, Ruddie may be able to speak Mandarin, but does he like mandarins? J-Ho doesn't believe so, and he's sure that the Australian public can see through Ruddie's lies.

Go for growth!

Hockey schtick

2007-11-07T19:24:00.000+10:00

Workers would be able to take double their annual leave at half pay and up to a year of unpaid parental leave under a re-elected Coalition government.

And grandparents will get leave rights for the first time.

Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey today talked up the government's workplace reforms as he released its workplace relations policy, aiming for full employment.

The launch came during a nationally-televised debate with his Labor opponent Julia Gillard.

"(It is) a policy that targets three per cent unemployment, a policy that locks in a stable workplace relations system to the next term of government so that business can get about employing more Australians."

Under the new policy, workers with the agreement of their employers will be able to take double their annual leave at half pay.

Parents will be able to take up to 52 weeks of unpaid parental leave.

The Age

I think I've got the government worked out now. See, what WorkChoices was really about was making workers grateful for the changes in legislation.

(Hockey) stick with me here.

Take away the awards that allow for unpaid parental leave or leave half-pay, then, when enough people have signed AWAs and just when it looks like you're up shit creek at election time, announce that you are going to allow them to have unpaid parental leave and leave half-pay!

That way, you look like you're giving them something, but you're actually just giving them back what they already had. And those people on the AWAs? Sorry, you'll have to wait until you next get together with your employer to negotiate your working conditions!

Employers don't lose out 'cause they've gotten what they want, the government doesn't lose out (and they hopefully win back the hearts and ~~control of~~ the minds of the people) because they've not really given anything away, and the people still lose out!

Brilliant. Just fucking brilliant. You gotta hand it to them - it's genius.

Malcolm down with EI?

2007-11-07T18:20:00.000+10:00

Thanks to Crikey's blogwatch the Australian Elections blog has alerted us to someone who might be held responsible for the quarantine fiasco known as Equine Influenza. Randwick Racecourse is next to Malcolm Turnbull's Wentworth electorate. Moore Park and nearby areas are supposed to have a high number of racing industry workers. The blog claimed the traditional Liberal vote of 55% around this area has evaporated.

If only it were true! A quick check of the 2004 election results showed that the polling places nearest to Randwick such as Clovelly, Randwick North and Paddington South favoured the ALP with 55% Two Party Preferred. The racecourse itself is in Peter Garrett's Kingford Smith seat. Anyway, Turnbull could still catch flu if there is any significant swing amongst racing industry connections.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Labor helps rate rise become a Howard plus

2007-11-07T18:17:00.000+10:00

Posted by the piping shrike at Wednesday, November 07, 2007

The polls say that interest rates are not the direct responsibility of politicians and this blog believes it. What the public is being convinced on is that union influence and wages are. They are not only being told this by the government in its attack on union influence in the Labor front bench.

Full post at The Piping Shrike

Gillard Hockey Debate

2007-11-07T14:21:00.000+10:00

This was on the radio so no one will report it I suspect.

Joe hockey: Redux of every government lie about Workchoices. Did you know you can better manage work and family when your employer forces you onto an AWA without awards and conditions? Me either. booga booga union bosses. Right balance, your interests are best served by being screwed.

Julia Gillard: Hockey's got a fear campaign. It's all lies. “Our fear campaign is based on fact.” comment. [pretty much everything except the punctuation in Hockey's statement was a lie- it was extraordinary]. Points out the government had no mandate for Workchoices and they spent a lot of money on advertising. Tells you everything you already know about Workchoices. 44% of AWAs remove all the award conditions supposed guaranteed by law. Mentions how women are worse off under Workcoices. Plan to extend it to essential services like allied health [my ass just clenched reflexively, that's my field!]. Blows economic 'arguments' for Workchoices out of the water. points out costs of compliance for business (who stupidly don't realise this). Labor's policy (Forward with Ponies and Cake) will be totally awesome. You know the drill. Selling out to big business while selling out to labor as opposed to just selling out to big business, it's an improvement. Says they'll keep right of entry for unions.

Sue Dunleavy Daily Torygraph: You'll be the first woman to run the country if Ruddy dies. How does this make you feel? Answer for your sex. Also both of you, women being paid less sucks, please explain.

Julia: Yay women! Only 25% of house of reps members are women. There should be more of them. Plays coy about being deputy PM. I'm concerned the gender gap has opened up so much. Retail and hospitality sector are really being screwed. Aussie women are $87 a week worse off.

Joe: I'm obviously not a woman. We've delivered more women in senior positions than any other govt. We are a modern party and govt. The gap has narrowed between men and women. It's womens' fault that they can't mine things and so get paid less.

Australian dude: Joe promises to resign if they make Workchoices worse. Will you promise to do the same if you don't roll back Workchoices?

Julia: Yes. [promises]

Joe: Peter Garrett said they'd change everything! He wasn't joking despite what the other witness to the conversation said!

Karen Middleton: Julia's stats, are they right or wrong? If they're wrong, why are you hiding your stats? Julia can you guarantee that all the people on AWAs will be better off under you?

Joe: [Lies. Same old lies. Dodges question]. Implies everyone is better off. Claims they've released data [truth being he's refused to release data- so make that another lie]. The data says that people who earn lots are better off under Workchoices, same as before. Hilariously resurrects trickle down theory. High earners will earn shitloads and you on your AWA will get some crumbs because it'll 'trickle down' to you, presumably while you're panhandling for change at the mall.

Julia: Joe hid all the data. Wouldn't tell us about actual wages. Why did he hide the data? Because it was crap that's why. [Was that a Rudd rhetorical question? Yes it was.] I can guarantee that our system won't work to disadvantage your working conditions in the same job.

Geoff Parry Channel Seven: Julia, Rudd is a me too leader, defend him!

Julia: Liberal leadership speculation. booga booga!

Joe: Me too Rudd! Tries l-plate ~~Latham~~ Rudd [R-Plate Rudd? Get him for speaking 'Asian' too!]. Who will they copy when we're gone? (I know Joe, I know. That's what we're hoping).

Mark Davis SMH: Unemployment. 3% unemployment is silly seeing as how we're pretty much at full employment. How will you guarantee inflation will stay low then?

Joe: We're after dole bludgers. Australia is running out of workers. Every last dole bludger should be working. Claims that a bricklayer straight out of apprenticeship is earning $75,000 a year in Rockhampton [ROCKHAMPTON! Looks like I wasted my time in uni] imagine if he lived in Launceston. Claims that interest rates will be low under the Libs again. [Muffled laughter as Joe charges the machine guns of reality armed with a spoon].

Julia: Failed promise on interest rates. Don't believe them. They lied about work participation. We're about skills and childcare. It's impossible for wages in rocky to affect wages in Launceston. We don't make irresponsible promises.

Steve Lewis, Govt. Gazette: South of your electorate a farmer is being rolled. Seeing as how the proportion of farmers in the population Is even smaller than that of union members, shouldn't you artificially inflate the number of farmers in your team? Also why don't you have any former models? Also is there anyone in the Labor party who ran a business?

Julia: Yes. I ran a business. Duh. Pre-selections are contests. Look at NSW Liberal contests. We have lots of diversity.

joe: We are diverse [laughter] Booga booga union bosses.

Ben Packham, Herald Sun: Joe and the PM say there won't be any more Workchoices changes. Yet you keep saying there will be. How can you guarantee workers won't be screwed. Labor will do a similar thing. How can you guarantee union bosses won't interfere in award setting?

Joe: I have no idea what I'm talking about so I'll use some buzzwords. Howard has given a commitment[!] That you won't be worse off! We want people to earn more money [except for when we say they're earning too much]. Trust us.

Julia: He's just blown a hole in his own argument. If I said I was going to consult the ACTU I'd hear booga booga union bossess. Joe just said that. We'll be hands off. It'll be an open and transparent process. Everyone can come to our party, not just big business.

Nick Butterly: Joe Mcdonald booga booga he'll be back.

Julia: I don't want to say anything about court proceedings. WTF do you mean, he'll be back? [he's a robotic union boss from the future, Julia!]

Joe: Booga booga union bosses. [wrote that before he spoke, wasn't disappointed]

Stephen Scott fin review: Wage pressure, should AWAs be used to crush wages? [yours firsStephen!]. Julia, some silly big business organisations have opposed your might. That was shortsighted. Do you wish to drive them before you and hear the lamentation of their women?

Joe: Yes we should screw wages over. Pulls out some dodgy stats debunked months ago.

Julia: Joe just shot himself in the foot again. The government is still hiding stats! We will let those big business guys who tried to fuck us back to the table. Sort of. We'll have a business advisory group [heh heh, clever].

Kate Hanen, Canberra Times: If Howard comes back will you get rid of the industrial relations commission? Julia will you put them in your Fair Work Australia.

Julia: We'll have some judge dude to run fair work Australia. We'll have an independent appointments system to fair work Australia. It'll even include the opposition [!].

Joe: You can't trust the Labor party booga booga union bosses.

summing up:

Joe: I'm gonna finish on a positive note! All my friends lost their jobs because of Paul Keating! when I was in a student union. Booga booga union bosses. Asks us to trade in work rights to have a job.

Julia: Holds up Howard's policy brief at the last election. They didn't take Workchoices to the last election. They've really screwed the pooch. On all levels, and they don't understand why people have turned against them. It's because they tried to ram through Workchoices. They'll try and ram it through again if they're reelected.

fin

Johnson feels the burn in Ryan

2007-11-06T11:28:00.000+10:00

Michael Johnson: waving goodbye to his seat?

Oh good news. I love good news. Our electorate of Ryan is now considered 'marginal' by the Liberals and their sitting member, Michael Johnson, despite it previously being held with a margin larger than 10%. So they're throwing $15 million our way for a sports park. Or something. Who cares?

Member for Ryan Michael Johnson issued a statement in which he welcomed the money.

The "sports park" concept first emerged in a series of leaked emails last month between Mr Johnson and the Prime Minister's office, where Mr Johnson pleaded for help, describing how his Ryan electorate had been "upped to marginal" after recent polling.

In one email he writes: "John and Ian: I need substantial assistance and a commitment here. Both of you know full well that my support for Cameron and the Govt has been absolutely rock solid in the face of overwhelming local political and community pressure. Forget even the personal abuse directed at me.

"I am bleeding on this issue and expect support now. This is a slow burn."

*Happy dance!!!*

No personal animosity to Michael Johnson, but anyone who has supported the Howard government and their destructive, anti-social policies has got to go. I hope he's political dead meat.

Vote 1 Ross Daniels or vote 1 Evan Jones! I don't care, as long as the Libs lose Ryan. I suppose Ross Daniels probably won't find the time to meet with us now, he'll probably be out campaigning his arse off now that Labor seems to think they have a chance in the seat. Sure, the chances are minimal that they'll actually win it, but the fact that there is even the prospect of this occurring is cause for celebration.

*Happy dance!!!*

Dear Readers!

2007-11-06T10:59:00.000+10:00

Having been absolutely blown away by the sheer numbers of people madly clicking the contribute link and sending their thoughts our way, we've decided to do something different.

Take five minutes to think about the last election. Who did you vote for? Why did you vote for them? How about now? Who will you vote for? Why will you vote for them? Click on the contribute link and email us your thoughts. You can remain anonymous if you like and your email address won't be posted anywhere, scouts' honour!

Last election I voted Labor and preferenced the Greens, putting me among a group of about 12 people who were impressed by Latham's lack of bullshit and relative honesty. I couldn't care less that he got into fights and drank lots (wholly un-Australian activities if I ever heard of any). I liked his policies and it wasn't as if I was going to be inviting him over for dinner.

This time around I'll probably vote Green because job 1 is making sure no single party controls the senate. Also the Greens are the party least likely to restrict my freedoms, probably because they don't have any power but I'll cross that bridge if we ever get to a Greens government.

Your turn.

ps thanks to those that have posted comments, it's always good to get feedback.

Why it’s all about John

2007-11-06T10:51:00.000+10:00

Possum's Pollytics has an interesting take on the importance of Howard to the Liberals' chances in the election.

Possum Comitatus @ 7:03 am

Since February, the Coalition political strategy has played out on the ground as an attempt to focus attention on Rudd. Whether this has been more by accident than design is probably worth pondering as well, but for all the “look at Kevin” programs, not a great lot has been achieved.

Full post at Possums Pollytics

Newspoll: 53-47

2007-11-06T10:48:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe under Federal Election 2007

Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Maybe we have a better chance at getting Liberal supporters to contribute now...

Seat du jour: Bennelong

2007-11-06T10:42:00.000+10:00

The Prime Minister's electorate of Bennelong covers the northern shore of the Parramatta River from Gladesville west to Ermington, extending north through Denistone and Ryde to Epping. While the Ryde area has leaned to Labor in the post-war era, riverside suburbs to the south and east have made Bennelong a fairly safe seat for the Liberals since its creation in 1949.

Full post at The Poll Bludger (Crikey Edition)

NT Invasion: Unfinished Business

2007-11-06T10:17:00.000+10:00

If you missed Tracking the Intervention on Four Corners last night, make sure that you catch tonight’s replay at 11.35 tonight, use the VCR or see it online by clicking the image above. Matthew Carney visited Maningrida and Finke communities for the report. If you still think that the Northern
Territory intervention is about child abuse or empowering aboriginal people, you will be challenged by the evidence.

Whoever wins the election, there is unfinished business to redress what is going on.

The health checks have almost nothing to do with abuse and are duplicating resources such as the Health Clinic in Maningrida. Opportunities and money are being squandered in shameful ways.

The death of CDEP is forcing people off meaningful employment and back on to welfare and destroying programs that offer hope. Outside managers with unprecedented powers but questionable experience are taking over communities. Listen for the embarrassed pause when the new saviour in Maningrida is asked what experience he has in indigenous communities. Four months after the invasion and he can’t answer the simplest questions. Maningrida does not need more outsiders like Counicl CEO’s who think their communities are zoos.

An enormous amount needs to be done with (not to) communities to address the challenges they face. This is not the way to do it.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Save our Senate

2007-11-04T21:18:00.000+10:00

The Save our Senate ad that GetUp have produced (and was discussed in the email from them) has been up on YouTube for a while now. Given that we may not really see it on TV, I thought I'd put it up here.

This actually ties in nicely with something I want to post about anyway.

I finished reading Still Not Happy John during the week. I'll post more on it later, but there is something that was in the book that I think people need to be aware of.

As you know, Howard currently has control of the Senate. The election gives you the power to change this. You can ensure that Howard loses control of the Senate. The Senate that voted in WorkChoices. The Senate that has slowly had its accountability eroded by the current government.

Canberra in particular, we're looking at you. Why? Well, let's let Margo explain:

...you have the ability to empower the Senate on your own. You'd have to do something amazing, but it can be done. The ACT elects two senators who, unlike senators representing the states, take their seats immediately, not on 1 July next year. Labor always gets one ACT senator; the Libs the other. But if 9,000 Liberal voters transfer their Senate vote to the Greens or Labor, Howard's Senate control is over.

Margo Kingston, Still Not Happy John, p 438

How many people are aware of that? Not too many, I'm willing to bet.

Something I found out about from TAMS about a month or so ago (and I'm still not sure why I didn't already know), the NSW seat of Eden-Monaro is considered to be the bellwether seat* of the election. For the past 30-odd years, whoever wins Eden-Monaro, generally wins the government. Interesting, huh?

What is also very interesting is that Labor is running Mike Kelly as the candidate in the seat. Mike Kelly is the Colonel who assisted in exposing the corruption that formed the AWB scandal.

Very interesting indeed.

UPDATE: Peter Martin writes about the possibility of the government losing the Senate seat.

*The Poll Bludger did a post about the seat back in June. I swear I found the post after I wrote that it was a bellwether seat (as it is also described by William). It is, after all, the perfect word to describe it.

Really Mr Howard?

2007-11-04T21:10:00.000+10:00

The latest ad from the ALP. I've seen it twice today already.

The worm is a dirty Commie! Get him!

2007-11-04T10:08:00.000+10:00

THE secret is out: the Nine Network's worm is a left-leaning university student, or maybe a bored left-wing pensioner, prepared to work for $30 a day.

GG

According to "young conservative" Michael McLaren who attended the Swan-Costello "debate" on Tuesday the worm is a lefty. Don't believe him? Well, let us look at the evidence that the Government Gazette presents us:

(crickets)

Yep, got me convinced.

(h/t LP)

Unfairly dismissed? Who cares!? Look at all these shiny new jobs!

2007-11-04T09:28:00.000+10:00

J-Ho was on Insiders today.

He's very proud of the fact that they've removed unfair dismissal laws. 'Cause by doing so, it has allowed for the creation of all these shiny new jobs!

How can you find that a problem? God, you people are so ungrateful.

Sorry Big Ted. You're gonna have to take one for the team. I'd rather stick bamboo under my fingernails before voting for that prick.

Yes, this is not an ordinary election

2007-11-03T20:12:00.000+10:00

Posted by the piping shrike at Saturday, November 03, 2007

Leaving aside Mr Shanahan’s strange way of seeing margin of error only applying in the government’s favour not Labor’s, it is definitely true that the swing in the marginals is not as pronounced as that happening in the government’s safe seats. Newspoll trend surveys have been showing the same thing even in Beazley’s day. The 5-10% swings by state that Newspoll reports in the marginals is not out of line with what the those trend surveys has been showing.

Full post at The Piping Shrike

Weekend YouTube!

2007-11-03T18:40:00.000+10:00

A Worker on Work Choices- John Howard Your Rights At Work

Reasons to Vote Liberal [2007 Election Campaign Ad]

Family First Slams Rudd Labor Preference Deal With Greens

Equine flu: not responsible... again!

2007-11-03T16:04:00.000+10:00

With the possible exception of the West Australian newspaper which wanted a scalp early in the piece, the media took to their stalls over the outbreak of equine influenza. Perhaps it is not too late to hold someone accountable, albeit in the context of an election campaign.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald Minister fobbed off flu alert (SMH 3 November 2007)

BARELY two years before equine influenza paralysed the horse industry and hobbled this year's Melbourne Cup, the Federal Government gave a written assurance that quarantine protocols were so stringent an outbreak of the disease "could not occur".

Warren Truss was the "responsible" minister then. Ian Callinan's inconveniently timed inquiry resumes this week. Current minister Peter McGauran will no doubt cry, "nobody told us anything". Like Howard and Downer they were too busy not listening about the AWB bribes to Saddam Hussein.

View more things they're not responsible for at: "John Howard: not, not... responsible".

Original Post at: Labor View from Broome

Just watch it.

2007-11-02T21:35:00.000+10:00

Just so, so good:

I could watch it all day long...

Outer limits

2007-11-02T12:45:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 5:11 am under Federal Election 2007

There is now enough data available to dispel the notion that the election campaign would break the trend evident in polling throughout the year. The Labor camp is accordingly lifting its barrage from the front line and taking aim at the reserve trenches. The following apparently safe Liberal seats are said to be raising hopes in one camp and fears in the other:

Full post at The Poll Bludger

The Senate: New South Wales

2007-11-02T12:41:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 2:43 am under Federal Election 2007

Welcome to the first in a seven-part series in which each state’s Senate contest will go under the microscope in turn, with a bonus post at the end to cover the territories. As we will proceed in descending order of population, the series begins with New South Wales.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Seat du jour: Corangamite

2007-11-01T12:52:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 6:04 am under Federal Election 2007

Since its creation at federation, Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne. The electorate was entirely rural until 1955, when it crept into Geelong’s outer suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont. Labor’s only wins have been in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Bring Out Your Dead

2007-11-01T12:40:00.000+10:00

Possum Comitatus has an excellent analysis of last fortnight's Newspoll, you really should read it. It has graphs.

Today we have the quarterly Newspoll you have when you aren’t having a quarterly Newspoll - a sample of 3413 voters taken over the last fortnight, broken down into States, city type and demographics.

Full post at Possum's Pollytics

2007-10-31T19:05:00.000+10:00

Ross Daniels, Labor candidate for Ryan, happened to be campaigning outside Toowong Village shopping centre when we went there a couple of hours ago. He happily posed for a photo, which one of the ladies with him took using our camera (making sure to get the shopping centre tower in so people could tell where we were!).

We wished him luck -and boy do we ever, even though we'll probably both vote Green- but he'll need more than that to overturn Michael Johnson's massive margin and grab the seat. Too many wealthy Howard-lovers here... in fact, whenever a bitchy, expensively-dressed housewife tries to run us over with a shopping trolley in Coles, Gam and I often look at each other and say "Liberal voter!".

Roxon Abbott Debate

2007-10-31T14:49:00.000+10:00

No worm. Boo!

Mr Abbott was due to arrive for a 12.30pm debate with Ms Roxon, but arrived at 1.05pm, about 20 minutes after the debate commenced.

The minister was travelling to the national capital from Melbourne, where he made a major health announcement with Prime Minister John Howard.

The event went ahead anyway and Ms Roxon, given the right to speak first, was visibly angry.

Roxon: (not 'visibly angry' at all- in fact looking rather pleased about this golden opportunity to put the boot into Abbott) Makes cracks about having to debate herself. Lays into abbot for not turning up. Whack whack whack. [Let's hope tony is delivering a baby on a freeway somewhere rather than expecting the debate to wait for him while he makes pompous 'policy' announcements in Melbourne.] We have big challenges to face blah blah, blame game. Relates state-fed health situation to a bad marriage. Mentions aboriginal children, next generation etc. Mentions preventive health and cracks about picking a hospital in a marginal electorate... We're gonna take responsibility, and invest heavily, [maybe there might be a pay rise for speech pathologists... what? what? the fuck you lookin' at?], talks about nursing etc blah blah. Talks about her and Rudd revealing a plan to have hospital report cards later today. Says Abbott has always been against health reform (unless it's taking us back to the 14th century and forced childbirth). Talks about the piecemeal political quick-fix tactics under Abbott. Talks about how Abbott attacked Bernie Banton (nice one, Tony). Mentions how the Federal government are underfunding the states. (Roxon takes her time, not having anyone to debate... rousing applause at the end).

[There's still no one to debate. Roxon takes questions].

Danielle Cronin Canberra Times: Is labor going to run out of money to pay for hospitals?

Roxon: The $2 billion plan is a long term commitment and we'll invest more. Will prioritise health negotiations and have actually put up money to fund them, unlike the government.

Abbott: (still hasn't bothered to show up)

Mark something, smh: (Noting his question was intended for Tony Abbott, but Roxon may as well have a go at it anyway) Talks about how the Medicare safety net tends to benefit rich people.

Roxon: Good crack about being able to do an impersonation of Tony Abbott to answer the question- it's quite good apparently. Talks up private sector, looks like she's committed to propping up the parasitic private sector with taxpayer money. Talks about improving bulk billing etc and making Medicare better available.

Laura Tingle, Financial Review: Go through how the healthcare agreement negotiations will proceed given how you're gonna work with the states but reserve the right to act like the government if they don't play ball?

Roxon: Talks about targets and how the commission will help determine targets. Will start talking to the state health ministers the day after the election. Points out how Abbott couldn't be bothered to do the same in a timely fashion.

Jane Bunts (AAP?): The govt. has spent more than you, what are you giving voters?

Roxon: It's not all about money, no point pouring billions into stupid, pointless schemes. Points out how they've spent millions on unspendable, non working dental intervention schemes in the Northern Territory, under which not a single person aged under 25 has received treatment.

Announcer: (appoints Roxon acting health minister).

Hedley Thomas, The Australian: We had promises to cut waiting lists from the State government in Queensland. That caused the Bundaberg hospital scandal. How will you avoid this happening again?

roxon: we can do more than one thing at once we're increasing pay for nurses, incentives and investing properly. thus i'm not worried about elective surgery. we're working with
?: you've talked about ending the blame game. the nsw govt. has fucked up health etc. you haven't put back all the funding the govt. took out. why should we risk “wall to wall labor”?

Roxon: We've promised to increase the Federal contribution to the health system. It's a country-wide problem and it's the government not taking an active role in health. We have a plan to take over hospitals if they don't work, so don't worry.

(Abbott waltzes in. People clap for some odd reason.)

Abbott makes his opening statement, 20 minutes into the 'debate'.

Abbot: (Feigns contrition) Thanks for being so patient. I didn't mean to make a grand entrance. Blah blah, i'm honoured to have been health minister [let's hope it stays past-tense]. We have made the health system teh awesome. We've made the PBS fantastic (except for Bernie Banton, who can get fucked). Bashes the states. says they need better management not more money. But they will provide more money anyway, he promises. States will be compelled to add another layer of bureaucracy to collect yet more data about what they're doing. Also the old chestnut about health boards, with yet more bureaucrats. (Carefully avoids saying what's gonna happen once the new boards have 'uncovered' problems at the hospital- presumably blame the states). Starts to sound hoarse. Only the government has a credible plan, Labor are addicted to breaucracy (despite having just been trumpeting plans to create 2 new breaucracies). Blames states again. Booga booga. blathers on, someone claps but aborts (haha).

Qn, The Age: (To Nicola Roxon) You've backed away from banning junk food advertising to kids etc. How much control do you really have?

Roxon: I'm a mum, I know the effect advertising can have on kids. We're waiting for the ACMA review on advertising. Extends further than just TV advertising. Says they'll look at things in a responsible way and they'll follow ACMA reviews. talks about how they're going to support teaching kids about food etc. Says she and Rudd have a good working relationship on the issue.

Abbott: Roxon has been overruled by Rudd (attacks Labor for backing down on the ban, then proceeds to reaffirm his own opposition to a ban). It's the parents' responsibility to protect their kids from multi-billion dollar advertising campaigns.

Rhianna King, the West Australian: You backflipped on letting all hospitals be run by local boards and used evasive language to say which hospitals would actually get them.

Abbott: The buck won't stop with Kevin Rudd. The buck should stop with someone. Just not us. So we'll have local boards and blame them instead.

Roxon: Abbott has no clear plan for local boards. We spent a lot of time talking about the Mersey hospital fuck up. The Howard government has been struggling with AWAs etc. in the Mersey.

Clinton Porteus, Courier Mail: You're late, you've blundered again. Why couldn't you turn up on time?

Abbott: My campaign launch was more important.

Roxon: The government is out of touch and arrogant. Abbot wouldn't even bother planning on being places on time.

Michelle Grattan: You supported the Federal government taking over the health system. Now you no longer believe in it. Could you take us through your thought processes in your backflip?

Abbott: I always thought that the local village idiot should be running local hospitals. We're not retreating, we're attacking in a different direction.

Roxon: it's just going to be another level of bureaucracy.

Mark Merrill, SMH: John Howard said we should be proud Medicare is fair. It really isn't- it's better for rich people because of your policies. You lie?

Abbott: No, I'm not. The Safety Net is good. We've done enough. It's all the states fault. They can like our deal or lump it.

Roxon: If Howard gets back in it'll be take it or leave it instead of negotiation with the states. No partnership, no reform.

Laura Tingle: Health care agreements- are you just going to hand over money to the states? Cherry pick hospitals? Will you have extra conditions etc?

Abbott: We want to deliver the best healthcare. We're so not interested about putting hospital workers on AWAs. (Flounders desperately on the detail of his hospital board policy).

Roxon: Tony lies. He issued a public service determination to say the Mersey hospital workers wouldn't be on AWAs. Why won't he reassure workers now?

(closing statements)

Abbott: Judge this government by its record and its promises. Judge our sincerity etc. We are awesome. Good managers. We've made everything better now than it was 11 years ago when Keating had just thought it up. We'll end the blame game by starting a new one.

Roxon: You have a choice. An old government with a dodgy record, 65% of the country in workforce shortage, 1/3 of people avoid healthcare because they can't afford it [like me- I need to get my wisdom teeth out and can't afford it]. They only have a plan to force nurses on AWAs and a crappy record. We have a clear vision for the future etc. The future. Mums and dads. The buck stops with us. A real plan, not an election plan. We'll invest etc.

fin

Xenophobia alive and well...

2007-10-31T14:47:00.000+10:00

Immigration, refugees and multiculturalism are issues that no-one in the centre left parties likes to talk about during election campaigns. The spectre, not to mention the reality, of Pauline Hanson is ever present not just on All Soul's Day.

Xenophobia seems to be well and truly alive in Australia if you go by some of the comments in response to my article Australia’s multicultural society works! in ONLINE Opinion. It has always disturbed me that the easiest thing to teach our children is hate.

If you missed last night's SBS Insight program catch the repeat on Friday afternoon. It looks at the African immigration issue from the perspective of local Noble Park people.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Newspoll: 54-46

2007-10-30T23:49:00.000+10:00

Published by William Bowe at 10:39 pm under Federal Election 2007

Lateline has announced a Newspoll result that gives some element of hope for the Coalition, with Labor’s lead narrowing to 54-46 from an implausible 58-42 last week. More to follow.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Swan Costello Slapfight

2007-10-30T17:20:00.000+10:00

Almost forgot this was on... the joys of being a student

Missed the first half hour- didn't miss much.

Long rambling question from some Government Gazette git. Karen Middleton is half asleep, don't blame her. Basically it's: what are you gonna do re: work choices?

Swan: Our system doesn't rape you up the ass... as hard.

Wormy: (doesn't really care).

Swan: blah blah productivity etc.

Costello: we've struck the right balance with WorkChoices!

(audible clunk as wormy hits the floor).

Costello: Booga booga unions, booga booga inflation. (Wormy's interest is at record lows). Back to banging on about unions, booga booga etc.

Middleton: Eden Monaro voters want spending on health etc, not tax cuts. Will you reconsider your tax cuts because a bunch of lying greedy hypocrites claim they don't want tax cuts?

Swan: No. We can have our cake and eat it too. We're endin the blame game, education revolution etc.

Wormy: Oh Wayne!

Costello: Economic future, build capacity, we will deliver it (Captain Smirk isn't doing it for wormy). Bangs on about the 1993 election and how Labor took back tax cuts 13 years ago.

Wormy: 13 years ago? I was barely legal then!

Qn (?): blah blah, debt truck, what happened with that whole debt thing? It's a bit big no?

Costello: (insert lame joke- wormy doesn't get it). We have no responsibility for the national debt (!) it's the states' fault, except for when it's good.

Wormy: jesus, I don't care.

Costello: Ok, well things are going so well we need to be in massive debt!

Wormy: Ecomanomics I know it!

Swan: Our debt is terrible, the mining boom is saving our asses.

Wormy: Oooh you make current account deficits sound sexy, Wayne!

Swan: We should be doing better and making our exports better! Blah blah, long term, the future etc. (wormy likes).

Levy, Telecrap: Leadership speculation. Tell voters what the 3 main differences will be between your govt. and a Howard govt.

Costello: Lame joke, massive smirk.

Wormy: (looks around for a paper bag).

Costello: We are a team, we make Australia strong like bull!

Wormy: (puts bag on costello's head, draws bushy eyebrows on it).

Costello: We've had our differences and we want to continue to do it. I will be exactly like john howard. Kevin Rudd me too etc. You won't have us to kick around!

Swan: Costello will rape you with uber WorkChoices, it'll be only minimum wage left!

Wormy: you sound like Kevin... I like him! They live in the past!

Coorey, smh: Why won't you fund the states? They have to resort to gambling and hookers!

Swan: We're not changing anything but the government has starved the states and played a blame game and haven't spent on infrastructure! End the blame game!

Worm: yeah, don't play games with my heart, Johnny!

Costello: We work very hard, the states have it so good!

Wormy: meh.

Costello: Labor will change the allocations! Blah blah econo-speak

Wormy: That sounded clever!

Costello: (passes the buck to the states).

Wormy: meh.

Costello: Booga booga wall to wall Labor!

Wright, The West Australian: your tax cuts are increasing inflationay pressure!! Look at NZ example. What are you doing about it?

Costello: NZ is a different country, except for being just like us.

Wormy: ???

Costello: (starts spruiking tax plan, complete with rudd-esque rhetorical questions).

Wormy: I like money!

Costello: (blathers on about how awesome he is).

Swan: Our tax cuts are staged. we need to account for the aging of the population and give people more money to vote for us! wormy: I like money!

Chick from Dow Jones: How will you make the Reserve Bank board independent?

Swan: We won't have any fundraisers on the board

Costello: (smirks) The ACTU give you money.

Qn: Do you believe the polls where lying liars say they want spending on hospitals?

Swan: No.

Costello: No. (smirks)

Wormy: They really understand my depth and value as a human being!

Clinton Porteus, Courier Mail: No one thinks you'll make a good treasurer, Swannie. Costello, you lied about interest rates. Why should we trust you?

Swan: Silly question. I have experience- I'll have more than Costello did when he started. I've talked to real people instead of smirking at pythons.

Wormy: I like him, he gets me!

Costello: Booga booga- I'm safe, he isn't. There could be danger, danger!!! Around the corner!! Bbooga booga!

Wormy: you're scary....

Andrew Green, ch 7: Has the treasury advised you if Aussie families have never been better off? And what will be different about your government, Swan?

Costello: (Dodges the question- basically admits that 'you've never been better off' came out of his ass).

Wormy: you bastard!

Swan: Rate rises, we'll start a war- no, a jihad on inflation! Costello doesn't even think there's a housing crisis!

Wormy: I'm doing it tough yo!

Swan: We look out for you, the little guy and we'll make sure that kitten prices are kept within the reach of the average allowance for a 9 year old girl!

Wormy: oooh!

Michelle Grattan: (rambling question about promises).

Costello: we always keep our promises...

Wormy: hmmm....

Costello: I'm passionate! Like rudd, see? Passion! Passionate passionate passionate!

Wormy: Ew, put your passion away.

Swan: Haha they r liars!

Wormy: lolz.

(closing statements)

Costello: I've learned life lessons handing out tax cuts. Booga booga, we're a safe pair of hands! (waves hands) Technical colleges, blah blah etc. The economy is the only important thing in the world! I can cure cancer with my economy [I shit you not he actually said words to that effect].

Wormy: wha? Still, I like you better than Howard.

Costello: (steals rudd's 'passion', coins hokey “large ambitions for a large country”).

Swan: The economy is the most important thing in the universe! It will edumacate the kids and fix the hospitals. Howard government is asleep at the wheel. (Mentions helping poor people!) The government doesn't understand you. They want to buy your vote. They suddenly care about education. Education is a core Labor value.

Wormy: mmm education...

Swan: The future, I'll invite myself to your dinners to listen to your problems and I'll end the blame game. I will build the eonomy!!!

Cut to Ray Martin ("I'm Ray Martin!). Audience wakes up and sleepily rubs eyes. Ray Martin plugs phone poll (for stupid people with lots of money, always goes Liberal).