Help! What's Happening?

Need to know what's going on? Try:

The ABC

Pollbludger

Possum Commitatus

If anyone has more suggestions, please post them in the comments!

Tell Me How to Vote!

So how should you vote? Damned if I know. But you can probably answer a few questions on www.HowShouldIVote.com.au. Don't make a decision based on your final result. That would be extremely stupid. What you can do is plug in your answers to a whole bunch of 'issues' and at the end, if you're lucky, you can see how candidates in your electorate match up with you. Including seeing their responses to the same questionnaire. I've said it before, in Australia there is no excuse for not voting in your own interests. We have an embarrassment of information sources readily accessible to each voter. If you voted for someone and you didn't really know what they were about, it is your fault.

Why preferential voting matters

I was surprised yesterday when one of my friends admitted that they weren't aware of the advantage of voting first for a minor party and preferencing a major party. She was just going to vote for the ALP first.

Preferential voting works as follows:

• You put a minor party (eg, Greens) first. Another party (eg, ALP) second.

• If the party that you placed first gets more than 4% of the primary vote, they get funding of roughly $2 per vote ($2.40?). If your first choice does not win the majority (50% + 1) of the vote, your vote is then transferred to your next preference (second count). And so on until a candidate receives the majority vote.

So, by voting for a minor party first, even if you know they won't win the majority, helps them by (hopefully) giving them funding for part of their campaign, and sends the message to the major parties that the smaller parties and their policies cannot be discounted.

Don't waste your vote!

Downer McClelland Debate

Downer: Labor are soft on people smuggling. Our bilateral trade agreements are awesome [not really]. We need to fight poverty in our regions (by not increasing the proportion of GDP as aid). Tries to take credit for drop in east Asian poverty. starts bashing Rudd. Keeps bashing Rudd. Labor hates developing countries and wants to plunge them into poverty. Nonsense about Peter Garrett was right. [muffled laughter from audience at Downer]. Claims Labor loves Bali bombers. [hahahaha], claims Iraq is improving. His voice breaks as he lies and cherry picks ridiculous statistics. We are winning the war on turr. Labor criticise us for being too tough. Claims we are a leader on climate change [hahaha god the man's a laugh a minute]. More rubbish [seriously, do they think they can just keep repeating things and they'll become true?]. Claims that giving the Indonesian govt. a pot of money will stop deforestation [haha]. Claims his foreign policy is built on Australian interests [oh, like aw?]. Blah blah, Labor inexperience, not only do the libs have special magic fairy dust to keep the economy growing they have magic dust to keep the terrorist at bay.

McClelland: Foreign policy has been bipartisan in the past. The first thing they did was stop being a good international citizen. We've lost our reputation, that's bad. Failed to ratify Kyoto, they've made us international pariahs. National security? Invading Iraq made us less safe. A better mate keeps his mates out of stupid fights. No WMD, a little wise counsel could have prevented this. 600,000 dead, 4 million displaced for Downer's “success”. Iraq is a terrorism hotbed. They knew it was going to increase terrorism (Csgrove and Keelty). What happened to months instead of years? They never had a plan for the mission. WMD to democracy, to protecting the Japanese, to oil to everything else. We're the only govt. that doesn't have a plan. Busts out AWB! 300 million had been paid by the AWB to Saddam right when our troops were risking their lives in the gulf. Downer was the minister responsible and is to blame for rorting sanctions. Downer claims he didn't know anything. We were Saddam's biggest bribers, no one has been held accountable. Frazer said awb wouldn't have happened on his watch because there was ministerial accountability.Iif Labor is elected we'll make sure we have our own voice and we'll focus on our region.

Sandra O'Malley AAP: Downer, you talked about international relationships? Will you stay on longer than you have?

Downer: I've been around for a long time... blathers on. Claims McCelland has no vision, says he has exciting visions for the future [who shall I bribe next?]

McClelland: Leadership speculation.

Brendan Nicholson, Age: Downer, when you've talked about Iraq you say, whatever you might think of our decision to go in, do you have any personal regrets? if you had to do it over again, would you? McClelland, I'm too dumb to realise you plan on removing only combat troops, please explain.

Downer: it was all about removing Saddam, things in iraq are wonderful! That's why I have to visit secretly! Invading Iraq was an awesome idea, everyone should get behind the US!

McClelland: Iraq has been a massive disaster, humanitarian, strategic, made terrorists bolder etc. Total clusterfuck. We're withdrawing our combat troops. We'll be keeping transport stuff, aricraft and ships.

Jeff barkers fin rev: A whole bunch of people argued for the elimination of nukes. Downer, you got rid of Labor's Canberra Commission initiative to get rid of nukes. You're a lot of talk about ending nukes but you sell uranium to non-NPT nations.

Downer bitches about not getting a turn previously. He did but he's a whiny little so and so. his thin, reedy wails continue till the moderator tells he had his turn.

Downer: Waffles and lies. We didn't get rid of the Canberra commission, we ignored it. More nonsense about the nuclear test ban treaty, violated by France, Pakistan and India. [Downer rejects your reality and substitutes his own]. We can't tell our best friends to talk about getting rid of nukes, [Despite saying that we could use our influence in his opening speech].

McClelland: we should be trying to ban nukes.

Graham Develle? Australian: Fiji, Solomons, PNG all basket cases. what are you going to about it?

Mclelland: The govt.'s tried but they haven't been able to develop ministerial level relationships. No one in our region likes us. We should stop reacting and sit down and develop progressive solutions with them. We have a partnership centre so we can cooperate.

Downer: Those Polys only respect power! You don't want to look weak or the nig nogs will walk all over you. Claims that he's proud he's pissed off all our neighbours because you have to teach them what's what. [I can't see how patronising ,states fiji has a 'coup culture', our neighbours hasn't worked]. He wrote Somare a letter [wow]. You need to bash these people around. [the man is a policy disaster area, South Australians should be even more ashamed of themselves].

unknown: What are acceptable means for interrogating terrorist suspects? Torture?

Downer: We have our own standards, [yes, ask David Hicks]. Blah blah, [ignores the fact that we keep handing them over to be tortured]. We're better than the terrorists. so long as we aren't sawing people's heads off on tv, we're the good guys.

McClelland: All torture does is create recruits. Even the Israeli supreme court ruled it illegal. Terrorists can only kill and destroy, only we can destroy our countries.

Unknown: Downer, you said you can speak French. Please speak some [hahahahaha] [laughter].

Downer: I can't speak French, ducks and weaves. He obviously can't speak a word of the language. Oh my god, what a wanker. He's twisting himself into knots. This is hilarious! claims he doesn't want to show off and impress us with his leet Francais SKILLZ. says [couldn't hear, double checked on video] "it's true if you speak French but I'm the minister for foreign affairs in Australia and he must speak French if you are Australian". [I knew it. You'd get thrown out of my standard 6 French class for something like that. And the pronounciation! Tourist French. It's an insight into how much of a pompous, self inflated, bumptious arse Downer is that he feels he can hold a candle to someone who can actually speak a language fluently while he is barely at schoolboy level] Everyone claps because they have no idea what he said, least of all Downer. His knowledge of the French language could be written on a very small matchbox.

McClelland: Europe is important.

unknown: will you accept Vietnam was a mistake? do you also agree in Iraq and 'nam intelligence was doctored. Since you dodged the previous question, would you do Iraq over again?

Downer: I did answer the question. I thought Iraq was the right decision. I'd kill all those people all over again. if Saddam had reestablished his doom nuke he could have strapped it to Godzilla and used it to threaten the world. Vietnam, dodges the question. The Liberals, we'd probably still be in Vietnam now.

McClelland: even the secdef in the US has said Iraq is a mistake. Hans Blix wanted a few more weeks to possibly save millions of lives. Iraq has been a disaster. thinks we have a right to mid-east oil.

unknown: [keep yelling at the radio]. You've lost interest in our region thanks to Iraq. McClelland, will we have a more independent foreign policy?

McClelland: Iraq has been a distraction. What about turr in the Philippines? most of al'Qaeda is in our region. We aim to be an independent voice for Australia. it'll be a partnership between equals.

downer: I'm always talking about Asia. we've given lots of money to Indonesia [that's part of the problem]. Claims there's been less turr in Asia [wha??]. Boring waffle.

closing:

McClelland: We'll reflect the values of the Australian people [please don't, i'm not interested in eternal war every time someone gets pick pocketed in Bali]. we'll do Kyoto and get rid of nukes, blah blah climate change. blah blah, we love America.

Downer: Everything's fine. Only we have the magic fairy dust that keeps everything fine. we'll tell you when it's safe to change. Booga booga union bosses. Begs voters to 'keep the team'.

Well that was painful. South Australia, fuck you. Stop voting in half-witted Downers. Please god, tell me he'll be retiring. and McClelland is even more boring than Stephen Smith. Are Labor really serious about foreign policy if they have a piece of beige linoleum tile as spokesman? I mean I know the Liberals just need someone to hold Bush's cheeks open for our dear leader but I was hoping for better from Labor. 0 points. I hope you ingrates appreciate that I'll never get that hour back. (If someone has some information about McClelland that'll really wow me, please let me know).

Campaign Launches

Now that both 'campaign launches' are done we can compare the two. In terms of tone Howard's struck me as something of a farewell event. Most of the lengthy affair was spent bashing Labor, calling people communists etc. It's the 21st century people, reds under the bed might get a few chuckles in retirement homes but it falls flat for the rest of us.

On the other hand Rudd's launch was short and punchy, about 1/2 an hour. After a perfunctory kicking of the Liberals he got straight to business. I got the impression of this being the culmination of something he's been planning for a long time. It didn't seem seat of the pants and unlike Howard, he didn't need to try to recapture his ideological ground. It was obvious that Howard had strayed onto Rudd's turf in his attempt to match education spending. Listening to the two of them, especially Howard's contempt for computers, it was obvious that Howard didn't realise that Rudd has believed in this stuff since at least 1998. That conviction was certainly conveyed.

When it came to actual substance I was amazed at how little there was in terms of new stuff from Howard. He spent $9 billion basically copying the 'education revolution' and adding a little extra. There was no mention of any other issues, except to continue the sound-bite scare campaign. Mark Vaile, to his ever lasting shame, got up in front of a coalition crowd in Queensland and didn't have anything new to offer on water, rural infrastructure, rural health or the future of the bush. It continues to amaze me that there are people living in areas where you're pretty much dead by the time you're diagnosed with cancer still vote National.

On the Labor side, well you can't say that there's no vision. The stuff Rudd laid out, even if he only meant half of it (which I doubt) will light the way to a competitive future for Australia. A move away from maintaining an economy for its own sake and actually making it work for people. Personally I'm hopeful that it'll mean a move towards actually making use of the incredible potential Australians have. Also he's managed to spend less than the Liberals have which must really sting.

It's not perfect but at least the raw material is there. It looks like there's actually some intellectual realestate for new ideas to develop.

The Senate: Queensland

Published by William Bowe at 5:28 am under Federal Election 2007

With two remarkable exceptions, Queensland has produced the same result at each half-Senate election since the first for six seats in 1990: two Labor, two Liberal, one Nationals and one Democrat. The first exception was in 1998, when One Nation overcame the punitive preference treatment that has thwarted them every other time by scoring a quota off their own bat. The winning candidate was Heather Hill, then a close confidante of Pauline Hanson, who foolishly sought re-election in the lower house rather than take the Senate seat herself.

Full post at The Pollbludger

The Senate: Victoria

Published by William Bowe at 8:54 pm under Federal Election 2007, General

Welcome to part two in a behind-schedule seven-part series on the various Senate contests.

Along with Western Australia and South Australia, Victoria is one of three states where the Coalition has never failed to win three Senate seats since six-seat half-Senate elections began in 1990.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Gillard Hockey Debate

This was on the radio so no one will report it I suspect.

Joe hockey: Redux of every government lie about Workchoices. Did you know you can better manage work and family when your employer forces you onto an AWA without awards and conditions? Me either. booga booga union bosses. Right balance, your interests are best served by being screwed.

Julia Gillard: Hockey's got a fear campaign. It's all lies. “Our fear campaign is based on fact.” comment. [pretty much everything except the punctuation in Hockey's statement was a lie- it was extraordinary]. Points out the government had no mandate for Workchoices and they spent a lot of money on advertising. Tells you everything you already know about Workchoices. 44% of AWAs remove all the award conditions supposed guaranteed by law. Mentions how women are worse off under Workcoices. Plan to extend it to essential services like allied health [my ass just clenched reflexively, that's my field!]. Blows economic 'arguments' for Workchoices out of the water. points out costs of compliance for business (who stupidly don't realise this). Labor's policy (Forward with Ponies and Cake) will be totally awesome. You know the drill. Selling out to big business while selling out to labor as opposed to just selling out to big business, it's an improvement. Says they'll keep right of entry for unions.

Sue Dunleavy Daily Torygraph: You'll be the first woman to run the country if Ruddy dies. How does this make you feel? Answer for your sex. Also both of you, women being paid less sucks, please explain.

Julia: Yay women! Only 25% of house of reps members are women. There should be more of them. Plays coy about being deputy PM. I'm concerned the gender gap has opened up so much. Retail and hospitality sector are really being screwed. Aussie women are $87 a week worse off.

Joe: I'm obviously not a woman. We've delivered more women in senior positions than any other govt. We are a modern party and govt. The gap has narrowed between men and women. It's womens' fault that they can't mine things and so get paid less.

Australian dude: Joe promises to resign if they make Workchoices worse. Will you promise to do the same if you don't roll back Workchoices?

Julia: Yes. [promises]

Joe: Peter Garrett said they'd change everything! He wasn't joking despite what the other witness to the conversation said!

Karen Middleton: Julia's stats, are they right or wrong? If they're wrong, why are you hiding your stats? Julia can you guarantee that all the people on AWAs will be better off under you?

Joe: [Lies. Same old lies. Dodges question]. Implies everyone is better off. Claims they've released data [truth being he's refused to release data- so make that another lie]. The data says that people who earn lots are better off under Workchoices, same as before. Hilariously resurrects trickle down theory. High earners will earn shitloads and you on your AWA will get some crumbs because it'll 'trickle down' to you, presumably while you're panhandling for change at the mall.

Julia: Joe hid all the data. Wouldn't tell us about actual wages. Why did he hide the data? Because it was crap that's why. [Was that a Rudd rhetorical question? Yes it was.] I can guarantee that our system won't work to disadvantage your working conditions in the same job.

Geoff Parry Channel Seven: Julia, Rudd is a me too leader, defend him!

Julia: Liberal leadership speculation. booga booga!

Joe: Me too Rudd! Tries l-plate Latham Rudd [R-Plate Rudd? Get him for speaking 'Asian' too!]. Who will they copy when we're gone? (I know Joe, I know. That's what we're hoping).

Mark Davis SMH: Unemployment. 3% unemployment is silly seeing as how we're pretty much at full employment. How will you guarantee inflation will stay low then?

Joe: We're after dole bludgers. Australia is running out of workers. Every last dole bludger should be working. Claims that a bricklayer straight out of apprenticeship is earning $75,000 a year in Rockhampton [ROCKHAMPTON! Looks like I wasted my time in uni] imagine if he lived in Launceston. Claims that interest rates will be low under the Libs again. [Muffled laughter as Joe charges the machine guns of reality armed with a spoon].

Julia: Failed promise on interest rates. Don't believe them. They lied about work participation. We're about skills and childcare. It's impossible for wages in rocky to affect wages in Launceston. We don't make irresponsible promises.

Steve Lewis, Govt. Gazette: South of your electorate a farmer is being rolled. Seeing as how the proportion of farmers in the population Is even smaller than that of union members, shouldn't you artificially inflate the number of farmers in your team? Also why don't you have any former models? Also is there anyone in the Labor party who ran a business?

Julia: Yes. I ran a business. Duh. Pre-selections are contests. Look at NSW Liberal contests. We have lots of diversity.

joe: We are diverse [laughter] Booga booga union bosses.

Ben Packham, Herald Sun: Joe and the PM say there won't be any more Workchoices changes. Yet you keep saying there will be. How can you guarantee workers won't be screwed. Labor will do a similar thing. How can you guarantee union bosses won't interfere in award setting?

Joe: I have no idea what I'm talking about so I'll use some buzzwords. Howard has given a commitment[!] That you won't be worse off! We want people to earn more money [except for when we say they're earning too much]. Trust us.

Julia: He's just blown a hole in his own argument. If I said I was going to consult the ACTU I'd hear booga booga union bossess. Joe just said that. We'll be hands off. It'll be an open and transparent process. Everyone can come to our party, not just big business.

Nick Butterly: Joe Mcdonald booga booga he'll be back.

Julia: I don't want to say anything about court proceedings. WTF do you mean, he'll be back? [he's a robotic union boss from the future, Julia!]

Joe: Booga booga union bosses. [wrote that before he spoke, wasn't disappointed]

Stephen Scott fin review: Wage pressure, should AWAs be used to crush wages? [yours firsStephen!]. Julia, some silly big business organisations have opposed your might. That was shortsighted. Do you wish to drive them before you and hear the lamentation of their women?

Joe: Yes we should screw wages over. Pulls out some dodgy stats debunked months ago.

Julia: Joe just shot himself in the foot again. The government is still hiding stats! We will let those big business guys who tried to fuck us back to the table. Sort of. We'll have a business advisory group [heh heh, clever].

Kate Hanen, Canberra Times: If Howard comes back will you get rid of the industrial relations commission? Julia will you put them in your Fair Work Australia.

Julia: We'll have some judge dude to run fair work Australia. We'll have an independent appointments system to fair work Australia. It'll even include the opposition [!].

Joe: You can't trust the Labor party booga booga union bosses.

summing up:

Joe: I'm gonna finish on a positive note! All my friends lost their jobs because of Paul Keating! when I was in a student union. Booga booga union bosses. Asks us to trade in work rights to have a job.

Julia: Holds up Howard's policy brief at the last election. They didn't take Workchoices to the last election. They've really screwed the pooch. On all levels, and they don't understand why people have turned against them. It's because they tried to ram through Workchoices. They'll try and ram it through again if they're reelected.

fin

The Senate: New South Wales

Published by William Bowe at 2:43 am under Federal Election 2007

Welcome to the first in a seven-part series in which each state’s Senate contest will go under the microscope in turn, with a bonus post at the end to cover the territories. As we will proceed in descending order of population, the series begins with New South Wales.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Younger people still under represented on electoral roll

From today's Crikey email:

Rolls close, young voters still under represented

Simon Jackman and Peter Brent writes:

Late on Friday afternoon, the Australian Electoral Commission published the total numbers on the electoral roll for the upcoming election.

The rolls had closed, for new enrolments and re-enrolments, on the evening of Wednesday 17 October - nine days previous – and for address changes on Tuesday 23 October.

Three Saturday papers looked at the data, all concentrating on the youth component. George Megalogenis in the Weekend Australian was upbeat, noting that “the number of 18-year-olds eligible to vote jumped by 10.3 per cent when compared with the previous election” Sarah Smiles in The Age was also positive, describing the “nearly 100,000 more Australians in the 18-29 age bracket on the electoral roll than at the last election.”

But Paul Bibby at the Sydney Morning Herald was less happy, claiming that “the proportion of 18- to 24-year-olds who are eligible to vote has not increased since 2004, remaining at 80 per cent, compared to 95 per cent for the rest of the adult population.”

So who was right? This is a tricky area, requiring assumptions and estimates, and we don’t have all the data available.

For a start, we ignore the million or so Australians living overseas. This is a huge number, but a story within itself.

The good news is that the national electoral roll, as a proportion of the number of Australians eligible to vote, is about the same as it was as of the close-of-rolls in 2004. In fact, our best estimate has it .1 percent higher.

That number is around 93 percent of the age-eligible citizenry. This is “good” because earlier in the year this looked to be a heroic task. But not going backwards is qualified praise, and that still leaves 7 percent of people off the roll.

Megalogenis’s numbers on 18-year-olds are correct, but in proportional terms the increase is less stark. In 2004, 18-year-olds comprised 1.43 percent of the electoral roll, now they account for 1.51 percent.

But the 18-24 subset has marginally shrunk: in 2004 it accounted for 11.27 percent of the roll, and this year 11.26 percent. At the same time, it appears that the size of this age cohort has actually slightly increased in the population (see the March 2007 release of Australian Demographic Statistics from the ABS), and so rates of enrolment of this group may actually be going backwards.

Smiles’ number is also only part of the story. The proportion the roll accounted for by 18-29-year-olds is actually a little smaller in 2007 than in 2004: 19.13 compared to 19.28 percent.

Bibby’s 80% should read “in the low 80s” but his 95% is about right, as is his general thrust: young people are significantly under-represented on the electoral roll.

And one final point. Last year’s changes to the electoral law, to close the rolls when the writs are issued, instead of seven days later, were justified by the government on the grounds that the last minute flurry of enrolments placed an intolerable burden on the AEC. This flurry – numbering 156,000 in 2004 – has traditionally come about because the AEC finally had a cut-off they could advertise: “if you don’t enrol by such and such a date, you miss out”.

In ending this practice, the government claimed the AEC could get the roll up to date in advance. And the evidence suggests that the AEC did, through “RockEnrol” and general advertising, gather significant numbers before the election was called.

But in the end what happened in 2007? By postponing the issue of the writs, the government left the rolls open after all – for three working days, rather than the old five - after calling the election.

During this time 77,000 new enrolments were processed. Why the government did this we don’t know, and we don’t know how much the AEC suffered under the burden, but we do know that without those 77,000, total roll numbers this year would look very unimpressive

GetUp! Campaign - The Senate

About 20 minutes ago I got the following email from GetUp!:

Dear friends,

For the first time in Australian history, three competing parties have come together in one political ad - under the GetUp banner - with an urgent plea to all Australians: Vote to end the Coalition's rubber stamp in the Senate!

Since the Coalition took absolute Senate control, they've made it a mere rubber stamp for their own policy. And if they retain control, they will have veto power over legislation on the issues that matter - from climate change to IR to Indigenous affairs.

Our recent polling shows that control of the Senate rests on a knife's edge - and with up to 2 million Australians yet to make up their mind how they will vote in the Senate, this ad can tip the balance. Can you donate $100, $50, or just $25 to get this ad on the air in the states where the balance of power will be decided?

www.getup.org.au/campaign/ThreePartyAd

This is not about GetUp taking sides, it's about a functioning house of review where no one party - whether Liberal or Labor - holds all the cards.

What's brought these leaders from the Greens, Labor and the Democrats together? Two years of frustration. Frustration that the Coalition has rejected 98% of other parties' amendments while passing literally 100% of their own. Frustration that ill-conceived legislation was passed on their watch without even the pretence of cross-party compromise.

The good news is that the Coalition holds its majority by just one seat. We're already running an intensive grassroots campaign in Canberra, South Australia and Victoria, where our efforts can tip the balance of power in the Senate - now we need your help to broadcast this ad and campaign all the way to the election to ensure that no matter who wins, we get democracy back. Click here now to watch the ad:

www.getup.org.au/campaign/ThreePartyAd

One of the good things about not being a political party is you can break the rules and bring people together across party lines in really exciting ways - like creating an election ad starring three major parties.

They've never done this before because never before in Australia have 200,000 people come together across party lines as an independent political force for change. You've astounded the establishment before - most recently when over 4,000 of you donated over $250,000 for our Climate Cleverer ad. Let's get this ad on the air where it really matters.

www.getup.org.au/campaign/ThreePartyAd

Thanks for making it happen,

The GetUp team

PS - Join our blog discussion here.

PPS - The Senate holds the key to action on the most pressing issues of our time. For instance, as the Senate stands now, the Coalition will have total veto power over any and all climate change legislation for the next three years. And what about "ripping up WorkChoices"? Sorry, but even if Kevin Rudd wins, a Coalition-controlled Senate could veto that too. So donate now to ensure we get the balance back. One party control of the Senate - whether Liberal or Labor - is bad for democracy. And remember, this election it's pretty much impossible for Labor to win majority control in the Senate.

While I'm not saying donate money to GetUp!, I am wanting you to consider what your Senate vote can do.

Screwed

Yup, pretty much.

Watching Insight on young voters from the Brisbane seat of Moreton. So far:

1 guy is voting Liberal because he's a concreter and got a pay rise, 'because of the IR laws'.

1 guy is voting Liberal because he lives at home with his parents and, 'the economy is real strong.'

The Greens speaker is clueless, basically promising a workers paradise with no mention of how to pay for it. Also it's a very uni-centric paradise, lots of talk about HECS etc. Life doesn't revolve around uni!

Most speakers don't even know what they want, let alone what any party wants to do.

A large number of speakers base their decisions on how their family/parents vote. What a tragedy. That is NEVER a good reason to decide who to vote for.

No one watches the news. Big surprise. Wouldn't do them much good anyway.

Insightful comment: Politicians need to be less formal and more relaxed talking to younger voters. Get to the point and give people a say. Howard's YouTube announcements are presented as a pathetic joke, a sad attempt to be relevant by a politician who doesn't get it. Agreed there. The Libs don't really get the 'net. Labor don't but they seem to be trying a bit harder and succeeding a bit more.

The BBQ factor again. Rudd's stripper incident (thanks Alexander Downer) played well, making Rudd look like a 'regular bloke'. Crusty old Labor polly doesn't get it. It's not about telling people what you stand for. It's about giving people the chance to find out what you REALLY stand for. Of course there's a bit of conflict there.

Also unions have failed to engage young people in the IR campaign. A lot of speakers don't seem to know anything about it at all. Lambs to the slaughter really.

Lots of talk about "strong economy" but only one person has talked about how Australian workers aren't getting their fair share. Also well said whoever mentioned the lack of the focus on the future with the govt.'s economic management. People want to know where are we going from here.

Global warming skeptic, votes Liberal of course. Reckons his vote can be won only by focusing on issues that directly affect him. Basically pay him and you win. Nice. Non Liberal aligned voters seem open to new information and appear willing to consider it. Liberal aligned voters on the panel seem to be pretty much in lockstep.

Show's over.

So, clearly we're doomed. The only young voters who care are in it for themselves. The rest just aren't sure. Damned by indifference. Are we going to look back on this election in 50 years and think back on how we could have made a difference but just couldn't be fucked?

Also, about this blog. We set it up for people to contribute, to talk about things they feel are important or just to express themselves. Why not make the leap from reader to contributor?

Election fun

Howard's announcement from yesterday:



"...the right leadership is the leadership that delivers the team that knows how to do the job. The right leadership is the leadership that has the experience to further expand the prosperity of the Australian economy and to ensure that everybody gets a fair share of it."

That made me snort. If he thinks that people are currently getting their fair share of it, then he's just having a nice old wank for the cameras.

"The right leadership is the leadership that is willing to take unpopular decisions in the short-term that have a long-term benefit for the Australian community."

Tell me, what unpopular short-term decisions have been made so far that have a long-term benefit? I cannot think of one myself.

This my favourite though:

"The right leadership is a group of men and women who will govern for all Australians and who will not be beholden to a narrow section of the Australian community."

While we know exactly what he thinks he's talking about (those scary, mean unions), lets just sit and think of all the people in the Australian community who have been repeatedly fucked over by the current government. Let's think of the LARGE section of the Australian community who has been.

But then we get right down to it, just in case you were too stupid to realise what he was getting at:

"...70% of whom are former trade union officials."

Hmmmm...wonder what card is going to be played ad nauseam over the next 6 weeks. Jesus christ. Everyone knows the ALP was founded on the backs of the workers! Of course former union officials are going to be high-ranking members! You have to be a member of a union to be in the ALP!

"Is it a government that is offering stability in it's key personnel..."

This from the man who has publicly stated that he will stand down partway through the term should he be re-elected! So, is the PM position not a key position?

He bangs on about balance? Robbing the country of the necessary checks and balances? How about a majority in the Senate Mr Howard? How about the fact that you have used your majority to force through legislation that would never have passed had there been a decent balance in the upper house? What about the concept of the Senate estimates committee? Forgotten about that, haven't we?

I can't talk anymore about his comments. It just makes me want to vomit.


On to Rudd:



"...new leadership with fresh ideas..."

Ideas that have yet to be announced. Far too much metooism in the ALP at the moment.

"...a goverment that's lost touch..."

They never had it to begin with.

He speaks of how the Liberals won't make changes. They will. That's the problem. The changes that they make are never for the better for the majority of people. So their problem isn't that things won't change, it is that things will continue to do so, to the detriment of the country.

What really shits me about both of them (Howard and Rudd) is that they only seem to think that families count in Australia. And by families they mean a married mum and dad and their kids. Not everyone wants kids. Not everyone can have kids. Hell, not everyone can get married!

Anyway, there are the speeches if you didn't get to see them yesterday. Please don't forget that there are other political parties in Australia. Certainly, the PM will end up being from one of the major two parties, but that does not mean that a vote for the Greens or the Democrats is a wasted vote, provided you vote correctly. That's the beauty of the preferential voting system.

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Federal election has been called

November 24

Seat du jour: Makin

Published by William Bowe at 5:55 am under Federal Election 2007

The north-eastern Adelaide electorate of Makin was created in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of Bonython, a seat made safe for Labor by Elizabeth to the north-east (until its abolition at the 2004 election). Makin currently extends from Para Hills and Walkley Heights near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. As my swing and vote result maps for Crikey demonstrate, Labor rules the roost as far east as Salisbury East and Modbury North, beyond which are suburbs with somewhat higher incomes. Census data prepared by George Megalogenis of The Australian shows the seat to be highly sensitive to interest rates, coming nineteenth on the ranking of electorates with the most mortgage payers and ninth on “couple families with dependent children paying off home”. However, it also ranks in the lowest quarter on mortgage burden (“median repayment divided by median income”) and the lowest third on “median household income for those paying off their homes”.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

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Seat du jour: Hasluck

Published by William Bowe at 4:22 am under Federal Election 2007

Located in Perth’s eastern suburbs, Hasluck was created when Western Australia gained an extra seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. As my maps for Crikey illustrate, it consists of three distinct population areas which lean to Labor in the north and south, and to the Liberals in the centre. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of elderly voters, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. The southern suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Other places

Published by William Bowe at 11:20 pm under Federal Election 2007

Once the preserve of a small band of moody loners, online psephology is becoming a boom industry as the federal election approaches. I have added a roll of external links to my sidebar for non-partisan sites specifically dedicated to the election, which are detailed below.

Full post at The Poll Bludger