Rudd's Cabinet & Ministry

Cabinet and Ministry

Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister.

Julia Gillard, Deputy Prime Minister, Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, Social Inclusion. [this is a good indication of things that are going to be important in a Rudd govt.]

Wayne Swan, Treasurer. [meh, just do what the RBA tells you]

Chris Evans, Leader of the Government in the Senate, Immigration and citizenship. [can't be worse than Andrews]

John Faulkner, Special minister of State, Cabinet Secretary, Vice president of the executive council. [excellent choice here. Faulkner is a real stalwart in parliament, streets ahead of the filthy Eric "aids and" Abetz.

Simon Crean, Trade. [I suppose we'll see what he can really do, can't be worse than Vaile, as long as he doesn't bribe Saddam again]

Stephen Smith, Foreign Affairs. [great tactic, Smith could kill a party in a whorehouse that backed onto a liquor store. Our foreign partners will sign anything to get away]

Joel Fitzgibbon, Defence. [let's see what happens when super hornet gate comes out...]

Nicola Roxon, Health and Ageing. [another good choice, much better than the former minister for asbestos].

Jenny Macklin, Family, Housing, Community services and Indigenous Affairs. [another good performer].

Lindsay Tanner, Finance and Deregulation. [well he is an articled clerk...]

Anthony Albanese, Infrastructure, Transport and Regional development, Local Government, Leader of the House.

Stephen Conroy, Deputy Leader of the Government in the Senate, Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy. [a potential banana skin?]

Kim Carr, Innovation, Industry, Science and Research. [Another lefty, yay!]

Penny Wong, Climate Change and Water. [another stellar performer and organiser, she'll do well here I think]

Peter Garrett, Environment, Heritage and the Arts. [placed where he can't do too much damage]

Robert McClelland, Attorney-General. [should show slightly more signs of life than the previous occupant. Whatever you do Robert, DO NOT open that sarcophagus in the corner of your new office.]

Joe Ludwig, Human Services, Manager of Government Business in the Senate. [I worry that this guy could be Rudd's Downer... I hope not.]

Tony Burke, Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. [Has he ever even seen a cow?]

Martin Ferguson, Resources and Energy, Tourism. [Pro nuclear power energy minister... hmmm...]

Outer Ministry

Bob Debus, Home Affairs.

Chris Brown, Assistant Treasurer, Minister for Competition Policy and Consumer Affairs.

Alan Griffin, Veterans Affairs.

Tanya Plibersek, Housing, Status of Women.

Brendan O'Connor, Employment Participation. [oddly renamed "Brenda O'Conner" by the SMH]

Warren Snowdon, Defence Science and Personnel.

Craig Emerson, Small Business, Independent Contractors and the Service Economy, Minister Assisting the Finance Minister on Deregulation. [should do well]

Nick Sherry, Superannuation and Corporate Governance.

Justine Elliot, Ageing. [she isn't Christopher Pyne]

Kate Ellis, Youth, Sport.

Parliamentary Secretaries

Maxine McKew, Prime Minister and Cabinet. [Max the axe, is Rudd keeping his potential enemies close? That woman is a serious potential leadership threat]

Greg Combet, Defence. [he's probably as confused as we are]

Mike Kelly, Defence.

Gary Gray, Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development.

Bill Shorten, Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs. [once single handedly rescued two Tasmanian miners using nothing more than a teaspoon and a video camera]

Bob McMullan, Foreign Affairs. [see, I told you boring people to death was our new foreign affairs policy position]

Duncan Kerr, Foreign Affairs.

Anthony Byrne, Prime Minister and Cabinet.

Ursula Stephens, Social Inclusion and the Voluntary Sector.

John Murphy, Trade.

Jan McLucas, Health and Ageing.

Laurie Ferguson, Immigration and Citizenship. [hmm...]

My list of demands

Hello. I'm one of the many people who voted to put you in office. Guess what? That makes me one of your many employers.

Normally when you are put in a new job in the PS, you'll get a copy of your JD, and 3-6 months probation. Given your circumstances, you already know what your JD is, and 6 months probation? Try 3 years, at which point we (the Australian people) will reassess.

Now I know you'll have many people pulling you this way and that, wanting things because of your position, but really, we all know that the PM only has as much power as parliament is willing to give him. But having said that, that doesn't mean you can't try - your influence is one bargaining chip you do have. And let's face it, the ALP is hardly going to oust you from your position in a leadership scuffle now that you've helped win back government from the racist, misogynist, power hungry Liberal Party.

But I do have a list of demands. Really, I know that they won't all be met in your first term in office, but damn, you can always try - lay the groundwork at the very least. In no particular order (because as far as I'm concerned, they're all very important), here are some of the ones that come to mind at this moment.

Get our troops out of Iraq. I noticed on Friday that you have stated this will happen by mid-2008. Good job. Now actually follow through please.

Reinstate accountability in the Senate. You know what I mean - committees keep the Senate in line, and the Howard government made damn sure three years ago that they would not be held accountable for their behaviour.

People are going to hate me for this but - no tax cuts. Not during your first term. Don't introduce them in the 2008 budget. The only time you could do so would be in the 2009 budget, but that will be dependent on many factors. If you do it in 2010 and you've not done it in previous years, it will be seen as an election grab, no matter how you justify it.

Reduce spending. For the love of god, reduce spending. The Howard government loved to throw money around as though it grows on trees and they have paid the price - interest rate rises, even when they were warned to slow down. Don't make the same mistake. Yes, interest rates are virtually guaranteed to go up in the next 12 months, and a recession appears to be looming, but that doesn't mean you should just sit around and wait for it to hit.

Now this next one may seem contrary to my previous demand, but increase funding for public schools and hospitals. I know education is one of your big priorities, and that's great, but you may just have to increase state funding. Mental health. Address it. ASAP. Don't just concentrate on the elderly or young people - there are millions of people who don't fall into that category and a portion of them have mental health issues that are inadequately addressed. This definitely needs to be addressed in conjunction (but not solely) with the criminal justice system.

Workchoices. Duh. Now, don't completely abolish AWAs - in some circumstances they are good. But for the rank and file - not good. People want their penalty rates, their overtime, their weekends. They want to be guaranteed a minimum level of rights. Do I need to say that reintroducing unfair dismissal laws would be a good idea? Oh, speaking of - release the statistics that the Howard government refused to release that would back up their claims that removing the laws was great for workers. I don't expect the laws to be reintroduced in their old form, but get the unions together with business, see if something can't be worked out that is good for all. Remember that the ALP was first and foremost for the worker - people like my dad left the party years ago because of the gradual shift to the right. Don't allow yourselves to move any further in that direction. After all, I think we can safely say it is because of an intense dislike for workchoices that you got elected.

Repeal the Marriage Amendment Bill of 2004. (pdf) You know the one. The one that says you can only get married if you and your partner are of different genders. You supported it, remember? Marriage is about love and commitment, not about who has a penis and who has a vagina. I've said it before and I'll keep saying it - not everyone in a committed relationship wants to get married, whether they are straight or gay. The fact that people want to be legally recognised as a couple shouldn't be contingent on whether or not the person they love is of the same sex as them. Gay marriage will not destroy life as we know it. As a first step, you can make sure that homosexual de facto couples get exactly the same rights as heterosexual de facto couples. This also includes access to IVF and adoption.

Kyoto. I know you've already said you'll ratify. Good. Just a reminder.

Detention centers and "queue jumpers". Introduce a maximum time that people will be left in detention centers when seeking asylum (I suggest 6 months - no more). Do not put children in there full stop. While I'd like the detention centers to be completely abolished, I know you aren't going to do that, so this is my compromise. Also - repeal the "Pacific Solution". It is bullshit.

Be honest with Australia about the terrorism threat. There is no doubt in my mind that Howard & Co exaggerated the level of threat for political gain. Their encouragement of xenophobia and racism is ruining Australia's international reputation. You need to make sure that people know that this kind of bigotry will not be tolerated (or encouraged) like it has been in the past 11 years. Multiculturalism is not just a pretty idea, it is essential for harmony.

Fixed terms. You yourself know what it feels like to be held hostage to the whims of the government in announcing when the election will be held. People like to be able to plan. People like to be able to know that the government of the day isn't going to try to shove some more legislation through before they announce an election. People like to know when they are planning to get rid of the government, that there is a clearly defined end in sight. Three or four years - up to you. I'd prefer three, but that is a personal preference. You actually said during the campaign that you would introduce them - please don't let that be a non-core promise.

This is all I can think of at the moment. I know there are plenty more. You do have your work cut out for you - 11 years of the Howard government has resulted in a lot of rubbish to wade through. So you'll probably hear from me again.

In the tradition of employers everywhere, I also reserve the right to add to or amend any of these issues. It's part of the fun.

Good luck, we will be watching.

Sincerely,

MB

The Poll That Counts No.1: Around the booths

I represented YouDecide2007 as a citizen journalist at the Tallyroom on Saturday night. An amazing experience! During Howard's concession speech I videoed the people on the floor of the media centre watching him: Bill Hefferan, Steve Price, Penny Wong, Sharon Burrows and many more.

Still editing. First episode "The Poll That Counts No.1: Around the booths" is on Youtube.

All episodes will be posted to Youdedcide2007, and TeacherTube as well to get around the censors. Watch this space!

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Welcome to our new PM

Kev - this still holds true:


Just because you're now PM, don't think we won't be watching. Because quite a few of us didn't vote for you as our primary candidate. Remember that.

As one of the people in your electorate (and how often does a person get to say they were one of the people who voted in the PM?), I think I am well placed to demand that you not become complacent. I have a list of things you should address that I will tell you about in due course.

In the meantime, congratulations. The real work now begins!

VICTORY!!!

We've won. Go out and celebrate the repudiation of Howardism. No party will ever, ever again dare to threaten the rights of working Australians. Howard appears set to reinforce the lesson of Stanley Bruce. Push the Aussie worker and they'll bloody well push you back!



This lesson is still valid, Kevin Rudd. Never forget what your mandate is, or become as slack and complacent as Howard.

Also Howard loses with a lower primary than Mark Latham LOL!!!

Rudd. 7:30 Report.

pic via crikey

Ruddy's turn tonight.

I'm bummed I missed his press club address today. Oh well.

"The Rudd Government". Has a nice ring to it!

Hawke/Keating paid political price for risks they took. Resulted in forming platform for Australia's economic growth. Points out that under Fraser interest rates were high too, not just under Hawke/Keating. Kerry basically telling him to shut up - covered that last night with J-Ho! Doesn't want audience to fall asleep.

Keeping eye on inflationary pressures is key.

Do you agree the GST was right for Australia? "You can't unscramble the omelette" Huh? "But do you now accept it was right for Australia?" By undoing it, you would cause chaos - only reason for not touching GST. Need simpler ways to comply for business. "Do you believe the GST was bad policy?" Affects lower end of the income spectrum more.

Um. I'm a bit bored. La la la.

Housing! Are you comfortable in allowing the RB to slow the growth of the economy by increasing interest rates? "I accept the independence of the bank." "Very important we take a hard line approach to unnecessary expenditure." If RB says public spending is causing more inflation, would you reassess your spending promises? He's banging on about how they're going to spend less than Howard and save more than Howard. Snore.

"Stop the crazy spend-a-thon."

Points out that all the govt does is spend and bitch (about the ALP) as their campaign. Heh heh.

Oops. Sorry. Spaced out. Something about the ALP historically?

Kevvie loves his metaphors. WorkChoices "dicing" things. Omelettes, dicing. Was he hungry when he did this interview?

"You could drive a Mack truck through that safety net." (Workchoices.)

"Brissy." Go Brissy! Ahem. Sorry.

Blah. Banging on about the union backgrounds of the shadow cabinet. "I will govern in the national interest."

Ooooohhhhh - H R Nicholls Society. You went there! Woo hoo! (Costello was founder).

I love Kerry. He's so good at forcing pollies to get back on track and answering the question asked.

"Genesis of our IR system ... will have as it's core component..." something about wages. Sorry.

Nauru. How quickly would you move to shut down? No advice on that. Have appropriate offshore detention facility (Christmas Is). Why not use it instead? What? Why use it at all??????? You disappoint me, Mr Rudd. "Pacific solution is just wrong...best way is to use Christmas Island." Sigh.

I'm so voting Greens. Yeah, yeah. I know I was anyway. But this reminds me why.

Climate change - Can you continue to responsibly ignore nuclear power? No decent attempt to look into renewable energy. Solar technologies have gone offshore. Solar, wind, geothermal will be looked at. Nuclear? We have large range of alternatives. Responsibilities regarding the export of uranium - repeats that other countries don't have as many options available to them. Didn't really answer the question, but Kerry didn't follow up.

Presidential style? "I believe very much in taking advice...evidence based policy. What works?" So will take advice from cabinet and elsewhere.

And that is it. Hate to admit it, but I got really bored and kinda spaced out. Probably cause his voice remains so calm and he doesn't get rattled. Unlike other people who get all snarky!

"The Australian" Editorial 23/11/07

"The Australian" Editorial
Friday 23 November 2007

It's (not just marking) time!

A decisive win on Saturday is essential for the health of Australian politics. The Australian Labor Party may need 52% to gain a majority. The Coalition parties could scrape home with less than 50%, perhaps even less than 49%. Our democracy would be severely damaged by such a result.

The disillusionment amongst younger voters would be profound. Their interest in politics has revived recently with the desire for positive change and the belief that it can be achieved. It is not just changing the government but reinvigorating our whole approach to politics. Climate change and broadband are more than policy issues for the decision-makers of the coming decades. They are iconic. Symbols of new ways of shaping the future.

Many of those who are turning against the Howard government believe that his team are politically and morally bankrupt. Some of the more glaring examples include: Iraq, the AWB bribes scandal, the shoddy treatment of Australian citizens such as Cornelia Rau and Vivian Alvarez Solon, the political manipulation of the Hicks, Habib and Haneef cases, the orgy of taxpayer-funded propaganda, blatant pork barrelling, the expedient about-faces on global warming and reconciliation, and the cynical introduction of Work Choices. The vilification of refugees and the abuse of basic human rights have reached new lows. The first ever joint John Howard/Peter Costello interview smacked of the kind of hypocrisy that young people reject.

The government’s strength has been the economy but Kevin Rudd has presented a convincing case that Labor will be effective economic managers. The debate has become more complex than three years ago. It's not just interest rates or a booming mining sector. Uncontrolled growth, poor productivity and skills shortages have brought financial stress to both the business community and individuals. Mortgage stress and housing affordability are not just catch phrases. Growing personal debt and unfettered balance of trade deficits present challenges that neither side has yet to face. The exchange rate cannot be sustained at such high levels without major ramifications for whole sectors of the economy, especially exporters.

The Liberal party seem to have run out of steam. They are increasingly out of touch and tainted by political expediency and self-preservation. The treasurer has had ample opportunity to present his vision and plans for Australia’s future. He has failed this challenge. He has been very poor alternative leader of the opposition.

Leadership is about creative ideas and renewal. It is not just marking time. We urge the Australian voters to elect a Rudd Labor government with a clear mandate for the revitalisation that we urgently need.

(Rupert Murdoch's election editorials are always so predictable. I thought I'd write my own. If you have your own or would like to make additions, please use comments below.)

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Rudd on Rove

LABOR leader Kevin Rudd has shown a more relaxed side on a television chat show as the election campaign enters its last week.

Mr Rudd has refused to claim election victory despite polls showing that he has a commanding lead but told the Rove show last night that he could deliver a knockout blow to Prime Minister John Howard - in a bar-room brawl.

When the Labor leader told host Rove McManus he didn't hate Mr Howard - he just wanted him out of government - McManus suggested Mr Rudd would still beat him in a fight.

"If I couldn't, wouldn't there be a real problem?" Mr Rudd said.

"The guy's 20 years older than me."

Mr Rudd also fielded questions during a light-hearted interview about turning gay, eating ear wax and the difference between a nerd and a geek.

The prime minister has so far declined invitations to appear on the talk show.

news.com.au

We caught the second half of this and despite Rudd's cop out on who would he turn gay for (his wife, bizzarely) his performance was excellent. He came across as accessible and it was obvious he was making a gesture towards young voters (I'll come to where you are instead of demanding you come to me like Howard). If he didn't have it before the youth vote will be all but sewn up after that. It's nice to see a politician not terrified of the electorate like John Howard obviously is.

Rudd's First 100 Days

As the final countdown to the November 24 poll begins, Mr Rudd outlined to The Sun-Herald his top five policy goals for the first 100 days if Labor forms government.

Declaring Christmas and Boxing Day the only holidays the first Labor cabinet in 11 years would enjoy over the summer break if victorious, he promised to oversee the implementation of policies in all portfolios.

"I believe leadership is about leading, with clear-cut direction," he said.

If victorious Mr Rudd wants to become known as "the education prime minister". He set five key goals for a Labor government's first three months:

1. Ratify the Kyoto Protocol. "We need to make sure we are around the negotiating table immediately ... for the next round of commitments on reducing global greenhouse gas emissions."

2. Start immediately to negotiate with the states on reform of hospital practices. "That is of crucial importance - we've got $2.5billion on the table but we'll need to frame a co-operative agreement around performance measures."

3. Begin the roll-out of the high-speed broadband network, along with connections to schools. In tandem, open up tenders for the $1 billion school computer program.

4. "Hit the ground running" with the implementation of the $2.5 billion program to upgrade trades training centres in secondary schools. "I went back to C block [the technical faculty] at [his old school] Nambour High the other day - it hadn't changed since I was there. It was like walking into a museum."

5. Begin negotiations with the Americans and Iraqis for the staged withdrawal by mid next year of Australian combat troops. "I have been very blunt with President Bush ... I have a no-surprises policy when it comes to these things."

Mr Rudd said a Labor government would start work immediately. "Christmas and Boxing Day we can have off, then it's to work."

The Labor leader said he wanted to be known as "an education prime minister", someone who didn't just talk about education but fundamentally transformed education as funded, delivered and measured from early childhood through to rocket science.

"This is the pathway to every person's future opportunities."

SMH

I think we're going to be just fine under a Rudd government. I'm a bit suspicious but why commit to a numbered list of things you're going to do and get them printed in national newspapers if you aren't going to do them? I mean people will be able to drag this out, you don't make a rod for your own back like that unless you're serious. I suppose it's always possible this would be a never ever GST moment but somehow I doubt it. Personally I feel like we'll be getting a PM who'll govern for us instead of for the over 55s.

I'm not given to flights of optimism and have little use for narcissistic nationalism but, damn it, Rudd makes me hopeful for our nation, hopeful in a way that can only be betrayed. I just can't see how or where it's going to come. Is he pulling out of Iraq to invade Iran? Does he secretly work for the Exclusive Brethren?

That list is like a 14 year old boy waking up next to a naked, horny Salma Hayek. It just can't be real, but there it is, and suddenly instead of enjoying your dream you've got her under the lights, quizzing her about how she got in, who sent her and what happened to her clothes. Even if he only does two things on that list it'll have been worth it. He's already lashed himself to mast on accountability so he's going to have very little room to maneuver. I guess it all depends on if the Libs fuck this up with their firewall, desperation strategy and the defeated coalition rump led by a smirking Costello frustrate him at every step.

Rudd vs The Media

Kevin Rudd has declined to appear on the ABC Insiders, choosing instead to appear on Rove. One of the features of this election has been the skillful manipulation of the media by Rudd. Throughout the campaign he's had the whip hand in the relationship, all but directing the media spotlight. First there's the heavy reliance on the internet to short circuit the media. This is important not because it reaches more people than the mass media, it doesn't. What it does do is force the media to simply report a prepackaged message. Instead of paying for advertising or appearing on carefully crafted ambush talk-shows Rudd has been able to control his message by creating a new supply of information he controls, forcing the media to cover it. Several times internet announcements have been used to hijack the media's very slow train of thought. This is significant in part because it shows his team 'gets' the nature of the internet as a medium but also because it recognises how our media behave. We're not ranked near the bottom of OECD press freedom for nothing. Australian media exists largely as a vehicle for the larger ambitions of the personalities within it. As such it must generate constant controversy with each personality vying to bring you the latest bun fight. This is the role they play for Howard. He only sets the wedge, the media hammer away at it.

If you look at the campaign, the media have tried to create the kind of petty squabbling they need to feed off. The strip club incident, the me-too copycat nonsense, the tax policy beat up etc. each time they've tried to turn the campaign into a bitchy scandal and Rudd into just another politician. That's not to say he isn't just another politician but his astute handling of the media has helped him sidestep the wedges Howard has tried. Take a look at the campaign launches. The media were caught flat footed by Rudd's exquisite reverse wedge on Howard. They all thought it would be two competing porkfests, instead Rudd chose the second last week of the campaign to put daylight between himself and Howard. In the context of the polls the campaign launches were meaningless and yet somehow Rudd was on the front page of practically every paper in the country simply for being different from Howard. Even now, trapped in the old media paradigm Howard's calling press conferences to attack Rudd's economic credentials, completely unaware that the battle was fought and lost two days ago, an eternity in Rudd's tactics.

So what does it all mean? When you compare Rudd's mastery of our rather brainless media elite to Howard's hostile, ham fisted approach (cultivate a set of servile, wooden-headed sycophants and give them access) does this mean they'll be less able to hold Rudd accountable for anything? Have we got a Blair on our hands? At least in terms of media management. Rudd is nowhere as cold and dead, as middle management as Blair. It bears thinking about.

Campaign Launches

Now that both 'campaign launches' are done we can compare the two. In terms of tone Howard's struck me as something of a farewell event. Most of the lengthy affair was spent bashing Labor, calling people communists etc. It's the 21st century people, reds under the bed might get a few chuckles in retirement homes but it falls flat for the rest of us.

On the other hand Rudd's launch was short and punchy, about 1/2 an hour. After a perfunctory kicking of the Liberals he got straight to business. I got the impression of this being the culmination of something he's been planning for a long time. It didn't seem seat of the pants and unlike Howard, he didn't need to try to recapture his ideological ground. It was obvious that Howard had strayed onto Rudd's turf in his attempt to match education spending. Listening to the two of them, especially Howard's contempt for computers, it was obvious that Howard didn't realise that Rudd has believed in this stuff since at least 1998. That conviction was certainly conveyed.

When it came to actual substance I was amazed at how little there was in terms of new stuff from Howard. He spent $9 billion basically copying the 'education revolution' and adding a little extra. There was no mention of any other issues, except to continue the sound-bite scare campaign. Mark Vaile, to his ever lasting shame, got up in front of a coalition crowd in Queensland and didn't have anything new to offer on water, rural infrastructure, rural health or the future of the bush. It continues to amaze me that there are people living in areas where you're pretty much dead by the time you're diagnosed with cancer still vote National.

On the Labor side, well you can't say that there's no vision. The stuff Rudd laid out, even if he only meant half of it (which I doubt) will light the way to a competitive future for Australia. A move away from maintaining an economy for its own sake and actually making it work for people. Personally I'm hopeful that it'll mean a move towards actually making use of the incredible potential Australians have. Also he's managed to spend less than the Liberals have which must really sting.

It's not perfect but at least the raw material is there. It looks like there's actually some intellectual realestate for new ideas to develop.

Tony Jones talks to Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd

Tony Jones discusses the upcoming election with Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd. Don't politicians ever answer the question anymore? Despite that it was interesting to hear Rudd get to defend himself against the meeetooo mantra the bobble-headed media have been chanting.

Broadband


Dial-up

Go for growth!

By the end of the last election campaign, my nose had grown this big!

So, the government's "Go for growth" campaign seems to be working. What? You haven't heard? Oh, well now. Let me show you it.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the official cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.75 per cent. Mortgage rates are expected to follow within days.

The Age

Yay! Growth!

Also, J-Ho has finally come out (no, not like that! That will be Lexy D you silly billy!) and admitted what many of us have always known - he pinches ideas and words from Pauline Hanson:

I know that, I sympathise with them, I don't like it.

I bet he said through barely moving lips too. 'Cause he was trying to hide his joy that his "Go for growth" campaign is working! Duh. Later, after all the reporters had left, he stripped off his suit, ran around naked, then jumped and rolled around in a pile of fiscal reports. Mmmmmmm, fiscal reports.

The only reason that the PM didn't stand in front of the "Go for growth" slogan today like he normally does is 'cause he didn't want to rub it in Ruddie's face how well they are doing. He doesn't want Ruddie to feel bad, and feel like he can't possibly win the election. Gotta give the young whipper-snapper a speck of confidence in his abilities as a leader before he is crushed like a bug underfoot! See, Ruddie may be able to speak Mandarin, but does he like mandarins? J-Ho doesn't believe so, and he's sure that the Australian public can see through Ruddie's lies.

Go for growth!

Picking Winners #3: 1998 Reflections

1998 saw a national swing of 4.61% to the ALP, giving it 50.98% of the two-party-preferred vote. It only won 67 of the 148 seats or 45.27%. A depressing reflection for Labor voters. With a uniform swing in every electorate, the ALP would have won 17 of the 18 seats which it did capture, plus 11 more.


This graph of seats which changed hands includes Hume which switched from National to Liberal, Curtin and Moore won by the Libs from independents and Kalgoorlie won by the Libs from the former ALP member and then independent. These swings are not towards the ALP.



Most of the large swings against the government were in safe ALP or Coalition seats. A lot of "wasted" votes. With only 0.93% more in 8 marginals Kim Beazley would have saved us 9 years of Mr. Sneaky.

Kevin Rudd will be hoping that this pattern does not repeat itself in 2007 or that the national swing is enough to overcome this.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Some election fun

So, how will it be decided? Find out here.

Yeah yeah.

Debate stuff

Note: I'll update this as I find more posts on the debate - be sure to check in periodically. My summary can be found here.


The Editor did some liveblogging over at Grods. Way better than mine. Check it out.

Gam did great stuff (see below) too. Sarah has summed the debate up nicely.

Ah, Mikey. Can expect good stuff there. Also has comment on the worm.

typingisnotactivism on Howard's fuck you to the aboriginal community.

UPDATE (these are ones I found this morning before work, only got a chance to put them up now):

Duckpond debate post. Top stuff

Club Troppo's brief summary and analysis

Peter Martin's blunt comments on Howard's economics

2007 Debate Live Blog

Mmmmmoooooore

Howard killed the feed because 9 had the worm. He'll be monstered in the press tomorrow. I can't clean this mess up. My hands are about to drop off. Sarah will fix it. This is a draft. God...

Rudd speaks first, worm in paroxsyms of orgiastic pleasure, reaching for the skies. Only drops when he starts in with the Peter Costello crap.

Howard's turn. Worm hits rock bottom and starts to dig. He also takes too long talking.

Question time.

Howard says he's awesome and keeps banging on about it's not all about the economic boom

Rudd responds. Why haven't we invested our wealth wisely? Wormy like. Oh wormy like. Who's your daddy Mr worm?

Qn: Rudd, you copy Howard, why should we throw him out?

Rudd: I'm an economic conservative.

Worm: I don't give a fuck, get back down there and keep hitting that spot. Oh yeah, that's it. More future. Wormy like. Oh, say climate change again.

Howard replies: You're not an economic conservative, you need to believe it!

Wormy: Meh.

Howard. Let me hit you with some Hansard... blah blah tax, blah blah voting.

Worm: meh.

Howard: Tarrifs?

Worm: nah.

Howard: OK. how about tax policy! Peter Costello.

Wormy: Do Not Want!


Qn: Howard leadership succession:

Howard: Peter will succeed me well into my next term. Here's some group love- Wormy, Me and Peter together. Alexander Downer!

(Worm throws up a little in its mouth. Still not breaking half way. Worm drops with every mention of Costello).

Rudd: Don't worry about the economy, I'm just like Howard. It's OK. Now, check this shit. Muthafuckin Howard as treasurer.

Wormy: Oh god! (Wormy goes weak at the knees).

Qn: Unions, Rudd, booga booga!

Rudd: Deflection. Howard has lawyers. Wormy hates lawyers. Also your team hates you. My team is diverse. James Hardie. Justice. Booya!

Howard: Lawyers are diverse. Union officials = teh bad. Wormy still hates lawyers. Especially short balding ones. Rudd smiles and takes some notes, winking at Wormy. Booga booga, wall to wall Labor governments.

Wormy: meh.

Qn, Alison: Economy's hot but how will you ease the squeeze? (Deja vu, anyone?)

Howard: I feel your pain.

Wormy: the fuck you do. OK, tax reform, Rudd copied.

Wormy:... tell me more...

Howard: Tax relief, here's some cash.

Wormy: I ain't no ho! Well maybe... keep talking. I feel flirty. Child care, education. etc.

Rudd: Tax, baby. I'm gonna take from the rich and be your sugar daddy.

Wormy: oh yeah!

Rudd: Tax rebates, school etc, tax rebates, costs of childcare etc.

Worm: Don't stop big Kev, don't stop!

Qn, Alison: Interest rates are coming, won't you make more interest rates hikes more likely?

Rudd: Don't you worry about that, baby. Education. Wormy: what did i ask you? Doesn't matter.

Qn: Will you say there will be no interest rate rises under a Rudd government?

Rudd: Howard was irresponsible to promise to keep interest rates at record lows. Wormy: hello sailor!

Howard: Monetary policy, debated surplus, help the reserve bank. Paul Keating.

Wormy: Who?

Howard: Reserve bank, independence. My interest rates are much better than Keating's.

Wormy: what does my ex have to do with it?

Qn: Apologise to home owners for interest rates.

Howard: Blah blah, no. Would I lie to you? Wormy: yes. Keating blah blah.

Qn, Paul Kelly: Interest rates, your $34 billion in tax cuts will increase them, Howard. Are you responsible for hiking rates? (this man works for gov. gazette?)

Howard: Interest rates, higher inflation. Surplus keeps interest rates low. Strong economy blah blah. I want to keep wages low.

Wormy: Wha? too much talking granddad.

Howard: (sweats).

Paul Kelly: scent of a wounded stag in his nostrils.

Howard's voice cracks. Wormy, why do you no wanna pay for me no mo?

Rudd: Hey baby, Let my hit you with more Howard as treasurer- You fucked up mate. I'm honest. Labor made mistakes in the past, I cop to them. You don't. I'm so honest, I'll only love you baby.

Wormy: Ruddy, don't stop talking lover. Rudd: Plan, education revolution.

Qn: Govt. gazette: You copy govt. you copy, tax revolution not education.

Rudd: We have a plan, for trades in secondary schools, kids education, numeracy. Kid's education, revolution.

Wormy: I still happy.

Rudd: Howard is going in the wrong direction, I take from the rich and give to the hospitals. Wormy like.

Howard: (losing it) HECS! OECD! Yells at Rudd and waves a finger. Wormy: settle down!

Qn, Laurie Oakes: The unions support you, won't you owe them and feed voters' kids to the ACTU?

Rudd: Don't worry about that baby, I'm flexible. I can do you any way you like. Don't worry, I'll bash the unions too. And baby, don't be sacred of the unions, they were there when good things happened with Hawke Keating. They cleaned up after granddad. (Libs in the audience are getting antsy and have to be told to shut up by the mediator). Howard's being slaugtered.

Howard: Booga booga, unions, no one is in a union so 70% is ridiculous. Internal labor politics. Former trade union officials.

Wormy: Meh.

Qn, Oakes: You have more IR plans in store don't you Howard? How do I know you won't rape me?

Howard: Don't worry, would I fuck you in the ass?

Wormy: (backs up against the wall and refuses to move).

Howard: come on baby, it's for the economy, I'll use lube.

Wormy: No!

Howard: It'll stop strikes!

Wormy: I don't know...

Howard: Workchoices is good for you! (Howard blathers on and on as he has for every question. Wormy falls asleep).

Qn, Oakes: You're lying aren't you? You hid IR legislation going into the last election and lied to voters, saying you had no plans for a uniform national IR system! Why would we believe you going into this election?

Howard: It was for your own good!

Wormy: You bastard! (dives down).

Howard: You'll get paid well if you take it up the ass!

Wormy: Really? I mean, No!!!

Howard: blathers on (and on and on) again.

Rudd: Good to get a word in! Howard's a liar! Interest rates, broken promises. He lied about Workchoices till you grabbed the the senate and tried to fuck wormy. Peter Costello will screw you too! And I won't fuck you in the ass. Look how many other people he's screwed? You can't trust him.

Wormy: mmmm... I like you.

Qn: Peter Hartcher. You want to cut greenhouse gases. How will you have progress markers?

Rudd: I'm good on climate change baby, my pad has aircon, Howard's got a sweaty tin shack. Targets, blah bah benchmarks. MY aircon's been installed by real experts!

Wormy:... nice...

Rudd: Howard and co. didn't want aircon, come to my place.

Qn: what would you actually reduce?

Rudd: Kyoto, blah blah. Wormy:... talk to me about the future some more honey... Rudd: The future. Worm: Ahhhh.

Qn: Paul Kelly: Targets, you need them.

Rudd, we already got them. The future. Wormy: that's the spot.

Howard: I believe in global warming blah blah, no targets though. We have a plan to upgrade the tin shack baby! Come back!

Wormy: Meh.

Howard: Blather blather. Cleaner coal. (cleaner coal?!)

Qn, Hartcher: Your fake Kyoto is a fake, Bush won't be bound by any targets.

Howard: I can tell Bush to join! Bush always does what I tell him!

Worm: I don't want to party with him!

Howard: It's ok baby i can control him.

Wormy: OK.... tell me more...

Rudd: China is critical. They won't act internationally because we won't sign Kyoto, I have morals and I'm thinking about babies, with you honey.

Wormy: Oh Kruddy!

Rudd: clean coal (wtf)? hybrids, renewable energy etc. Howard isn't comitted to climate change. He just wants to get in your pants. To put in his nuke reactor.

Wormy: OMG!

QN: Hartcher, Howard can you control Bush?

Howard: I can control Bush.

Wormy: the fuck you can. *plummets*

Howard: Baby I was a statesman at APEC.

Wormy: I still don't want to play with him!!

QN, Chris Ulman: Has terrorism gone up since Iraq?

Howard: No.

Wormy: I don't believe you. Oh wait, I do, I remember why I let you fuck me now...

Qn: Iraq is a terrorist training camp.

Howard: Al Qaeda is in retreat, I won't answer your question.

Rudd: Howard won't answer the question. British intelligence told us we'd be more at risk. Howard didn't listen baby. Iraq is a fuck up, worse than 'nam. More terrorists baby, he a bad man! Mick Keelty got monstered for telling the truth. I'm a tough man, string up the Tangos. But I also have a soft side, pay people to stop blowing shit up.

Qn: Will you withdraw all troops?

Rudd. All combat troops out. Staged withdrawal, baby. Everyone else will probably stay.

Howard: (knocks over his mike) I won't withdraw. Rudd has to withdraw all or nothing. I might withdraw them, they'll be doing training, don't worry.

Wormy: You're not Rudd!

Howard: I'll ask the yanks to let us leave.

Qn: Rudd, you do lots of 'me too'. What do you stand on?

Rudd: I'm strong on Iraq. I make pragmatic choices. I only protect Aussies from the death penalty. I don't intervene on the terrorists' side. I believe in the future.

Wormy: Don't stop Kruddy! Don't stop!

Rudd: the future, passion, core elements.

Qn: Reconciliation. Why won't you say sorry?

Howard: I'm sorry people were badly treated in the past. I have nothing to apologise for.

Wormy: I don't really like abos...

Howard: I'm your man, me and Mal Brough. And Downer.

Wormy: don't like Downer.

Howard: I'm going to send in more troops. I won't make a symbolic apology. Blathers on too long.

Rudd: We want to protect the little kids, it was terrible so we backed Howard, for the kids. (Wormy like). (Rudd Faces howard. Talks about respect and building bridges) . I like babies.

Wormy: Ooh Kruddy, build my bridge!

Rudd asks: IR, redundancies. Is it possible that you can lose redundancy pay?

Howard: No, you need fair compensation.

Worm: I could lose what??

Howard asks: If you believe in climate change why didn't you spend longer talking to Bush.

Rudd: He said don't talk about it. Bush wouldn't change his mind so I ditched him. I'm the man for the future, you slept for 11 years. *Bashes bush) You didn't talk to him at all. (Wormy orgasms).

Rudd qn: Iraq: Why should we believe you when you say you wouldn't send in more troops? It's like interest rates and Workchoices. You said before the last election that you had no plans to send in troops, then immediately after the election you doubled the number of Australian troops in Iraq,

Howard: You believe me right?

Wormy: no.

Howard: (waves the flag accuses Rudd of politicising the armed forces- haha) We'll beg the allies to let us leave. I'm good at begging.

Wormy. You smell like old man.

Howard: (blathers some more) What about making Bush look good?

Wormy: Fuck him.

Howard: You've talked about pricing and interest rates. Can you guarantee things like I do?

Rudd: We said we can do things to help, not say you've never had it so good.

Wormy: likes.

Rudd: Taxes, rebates etc. (Worm likes even more).

Rudd: I'm gonna investigate the petrol prices with our commissioner!

Wormy: Mmmmm petrol.

Rudd closing: I'm a kid from QLD. A kid with a plan, baby, it's gotta mean something. Feelings, and the future, baby, and passion and revolutions and broadband. And I'm all about the bush!

Wormy (creams its pants).

Howard: (Sounds tired, almost asleep) Beware of the promises, I have money. Big piles of money. I've been around a long time. A patchy plan on education, other than restarting the culture wars. We are heroic and lets be proud of ourselves (steals education revolution idea).


P.S. Annabel Crabb is a bobblehead.

Could Labor's soft strategy lead to loss?

Could even John Howard make these men look impotent?

This is something that's been bothering me all week, mainly because the same thing happened during the disastrous 2004 election campaign: Labor clearly has the same people running their advertising campaigns as they did back then. This was worrying me back in July, and I really hoped the ALP would wake up to themselves in the meantime. What we should be doing is seeing ads putting some steel-toed boots into the ribs of the Libs while they're down in the polls. Some more anti-Workchoices ads. Some more 'John Howard has been asleep on climate change' ads. Some ads reminding people of how Howard spent $2 billion of their money on ads promoting himself and his policies (and maybe a promise to change the rules so that can't happen again? Helloooo?). Anything that will remind people of why they shouldn't be voting for Howard, and I don't mean more of those lame anti-Costello ads.

Instead we've been getting nice, bland Kevin Rudd, speaking in measured tones, soft enough to appeal to grandmas yet forceful enough to sound statesmanlike, with soft, inspirational music playing in the background. Enough, Kevin! You can be a statesman after you win the frigging election. Anything earlier is just playing make-believe. It didn't work for Mark Latham and it won't work for you. The polls are heading in Howard's favour already, and presidential-style ads aren't going to stop his $34 billion vote-buying spree having an impact on the electorate.

One positive to come out of this week is actually Rudd's response to the $34 billion in tax cuts- given his past form I expected Labor to fall for the same trick as last election, making lots of promises in support of schools, the healthcare system etc and then promising tax cuts on top of it all to match the government and consequently looking weak on their fiscal management.

Just one final note- how much of an ass is Wayne Swan? I guess there's the possibility that he's under instruction to 'stay on message', in which case he's been given the wrong message, but in interviews this week he seems to be running around trying to be Peter Costello to Kevin Rudd's John Howard, once again missing the opportunity to put the boot into Workchoices and the effect it has on ordinary people's earnings.

Oh, and you know who I think we should be seeing more of? Julia Gillard.

Somebody slap them!

Union attacks

Mr Hockey, whose Liberal Party has launched scathing election advertisements highlighting the 70 per cent of Labor frontbenchers with a union background, said it was incredible Labor intended to govern with such a high union representation.

"[The role of unions] is essentially over," Mr Hockey told ABC Radio today.

"That's because we have a system with a strong, independent umpire that is providing protections for workers.

"Because the unions do not cover 80 per cent of the workers out there, we find that people are turning to the Workplace Authority and the Workplace Ombudsman to obtain information and to get protection."

Mr Hockey said workers who were not union members could turn to the Workplace Ombudsman for advice, but the Labor Party wanted to dismantle that office.

He said Australians viewed unions as irrelevant and were choosing not to join them, a trend that started under former Labor prime minister Bob Hawke.

SMH

No, the reasons people aren't joining the unions is because they still have an old-fashioned view of them, and the government scare campaign over many years has wormed its way into the minds of the populace. The unions are not good at positive self-promotion.

Very few unions are as militant as they were. Because over the years they were achieving many of the goals they aimed for. But now, they have a higher profile because the government is systematically eroding their achievements. My grandfather must be rolling over in his grave. (He was heavily involved in unions. Actually even got a mention in a book about them - the name of which escapes me at present.) People started leaving the unions when Hawke was PM because they had yet to catch up with the general feelings of the public. But now they have.

Personally, I don't think much can be achieved nowdays by going on strike. Because unlike in my grandfather's era, there is less of a feeling of community in the population. If people went on strike back then, other people would support them and the reasons for the strike. People wouldn't become scabs because they knew they faced ostracisation, which doesn't happen so much now because big-business has such a foothold in the minds of the public and all people seem to care about is profit over the well-being of the people who help achieve that profit.

The public has become complacent. And now we are facing the consequences.

"I don't think anyone would have thought that in 2007 it would be credible for Kevin Rudd to go to an election with 70 per cent of his frontbench made up of former union officials, and that would be a dramatic increase in the number of union officials that, say, Bob Hawke had," he said.

Irrelevant. I'll keep saying it - you must be a union member to be in the ALP*. So naturally the chances of the bulk of the frontbench being former union officials is high. Being a union official is a politicised position. It is a natural stepping stone for someone in the ALP who wants to make a difference in the government. End of story.

Just because a politician is a former union official it does not mean that they will allow themselves to be unfairly influenced by the unions. They know that come the next election, if people are unhappy with their performance, they will be given the boot - so in a way, their involvement with the union movement can be seen as something that prevents them from making extreme choices.

The ACTU has hit back at a Liberal Party campaign highlighting the union affiliations of Labor's frontbench team, saying it is insulting to working families.

ACTU president Sharan Burrow said a television advertisement released yesterday by the Liberals was wrong to suggest unions were anti-business.

The ad was also insulting to the millions of Australians whose job security and living standards were protected by unions.

"The job of all unions is to protect secure, well-paid employment for Australian working families," she said.

"To achieve this we need profitable businesses that value their workers. (my empahsis)

Workers who are valued are happy. Happy workers are more productive. This means that businesses achieve more.

I'll concede that not all business will use WorkChoices as a means to take advantage of their workers. But there are those that will. And until you can guarantee that no workers will be unfairly treated, you cannot write off the unions. An agency set up by the government should not be relied on as the only organisation that will ensure that worker's rights are protected.

The government scare campaign will continue. You've probably seen the latest bit of propaganda by now. See it here if you've not.



Labor have hit back with Rudd calling out Howard's scare campaign with a "Fresh Ideas" ad.

*apparently this is untrue. As I said in my comment - a number of years ago before I'd gotten around to joining the QPSU, I rang the ALP and was informed I'd need to be a union member. Is this a recent thing? Can anyone enlighten?

But I don't believe that it makes my comments any less valid. Given that the ALP is traditionally aligned with the unions, it is hardly a surprise that most, if not all, of the pollies have union affiliations of some description.

Election fun

Howard's announcement from yesterday:



"...the right leadership is the leadership that delivers the team that knows how to do the job. The right leadership is the leadership that has the experience to further expand the prosperity of the Australian economy and to ensure that everybody gets a fair share of it."

That made me snort. If he thinks that people are currently getting their fair share of it, then he's just having a nice old wank for the cameras.

"The right leadership is the leadership that is willing to take unpopular decisions in the short-term that have a long-term benefit for the Australian community."

Tell me, what unpopular short-term decisions have been made so far that have a long-term benefit? I cannot think of one myself.

This my favourite though:

"The right leadership is a group of men and women who will govern for all Australians and who will not be beholden to a narrow section of the Australian community."

While we know exactly what he thinks he's talking about (those scary, mean unions), lets just sit and think of all the people in the Australian community who have been repeatedly fucked over by the current government. Let's think of the LARGE section of the Australian community who has been.

But then we get right down to it, just in case you were too stupid to realise what he was getting at:

"...70% of whom are former trade union officials."

Hmmmm...wonder what card is going to be played ad nauseam over the next 6 weeks. Jesus christ. Everyone knows the ALP was founded on the backs of the workers! Of course former union officials are going to be high-ranking members! You have to be a member of a union to be in the ALP!

"Is it a government that is offering stability in it's key personnel..."

This from the man who has publicly stated that he will stand down partway through the term should he be re-elected! So, is the PM position not a key position?

He bangs on about balance? Robbing the country of the necessary checks and balances? How about a majority in the Senate Mr Howard? How about the fact that you have used your majority to force through legislation that would never have passed had there been a decent balance in the upper house? What about the concept of the Senate estimates committee? Forgotten about that, haven't we?

I can't talk anymore about his comments. It just makes me want to vomit.


On to Rudd:



"...new leadership with fresh ideas..."

Ideas that have yet to be announced. Far too much metooism in the ALP at the moment.

"...a goverment that's lost touch..."

They never had it to begin with.

He speaks of how the Liberals won't make changes. They will. That's the problem. The changes that they make are never for the better for the majority of people. So their problem isn't that things won't change, it is that things will continue to do so, to the detriment of the country.

What really shits me about both of them (Howard and Rudd) is that they only seem to think that families count in Australia. And by families they mean a married mum and dad and their kids. Not everyone wants kids. Not everyone can have kids. Hell, not everyone can get married!

Anyway, there are the speeches if you didn't get to see them yesterday. Please don't forget that there are other political parties in Australia. Certainly, the PM will end up being from one of the major two parties, but that does not mean that a vote for the Greens or the Democrats is a wasted vote, provided you vote correctly. That's the beauty of the preferential voting system.