Seats du jour: Leichhardt and Ryan

Published by William Bowe at 2:22 pm under Federal Election 2007

A look at two seats in very different parts of Queensland which the Liberals are reckoned to be in serious danger of losing, despite double-digit margins.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Seat du jour: Herbert

Published by William Bowe at 2:17 am under Federal Election 2007

The Townsville-based electorate of Herbert was created at federation, when it extended north to Cairns and south to Mackay. The latest redistribution has maintained a long-running trend by drawing the electorate into Townsville, reducing its area from 1,997 square kilometres to 389 through the transfer of territory south of the city to Dawson. Support for Labor is stronger in and around the town centre than in the interior suburbs, especially after the latter produced particularly strong Liberal swings in 2004

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Seat du jour: Boothby

Published by William Bowe at 5:10 am under Federal Election 2007

The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby extends from Brighton and Marino on the coast through the outer edge of the coastal plain to Myrtle Bank, and out into the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. These are established areas marked by a high level of religious observance and relatively few young families. The seat’s Liberal leaning is softened slightly by the area around the Mitsubishi plant at Clovelly Park, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Johnson feels the burn in Ryan

Michael Johnson: waving goodbye to his seat?

Oh good news. I love good news. Our electorate of Ryan is now considered 'marginal' by the Liberals and their sitting member, Michael Johnson, despite it previously being held with a margin larger than 10%. So they're throwing $15 million our way for a sports park. Or something. Who cares?

Member for Ryan Michael Johnson issued a statement in which he welcomed the money.

The "sports park" concept first emerged in a series of leaked emails last month between Mr Johnson and the Prime Minister's office, where Mr Johnson pleaded for help, describing how his Ryan electorate had been "upped to marginal" after recent polling.

In one email he writes: "John and Ian: I need substantial assistance and a commitment here. Both of you know full well that my support for Cameron and the Govt has been absolutely rock solid in the face of overwhelming local political and community pressure. Forget even the personal abuse directed at me.

"I am bleeding on this issue and expect support now. This is a slow burn."

*Happy dance!!!*

No personal animosity to Michael Johnson, but anyone who has supported the Howard government and their destructive, anti-social policies has got to go. I hope he's political dead meat.

Vote 1 Ross Daniels or vote 1 Evan Jones! I don't care, as long as the Libs lose Ryan. I suppose Ross Daniels probably won't find the time to meet with us now, he'll probably be out campaigning his arse off now that Labor seems to think they have a chance in the seat. Sure, the chances are minimal that they'll actually win it, but the fact that there is even the prospect of this occurring is cause for celebration.

*Happy dance!!!*

Seat du jour: Bennelong

The Prime Minister's electorate of Bennelong covers the northern shore of the Parramatta River from Gladesville west to Ermington, extending north through Denistone and Ryde to Epping. While the Ryde area has leaned to Labor in the post-war era, riverside suburbs to the south and east have made Bennelong a fairly safe seat for the Liberals since its creation in 1949.

Full post at The Poll Bludger (Crikey Edition)

Outer limits

Published by William Bowe at 5:11 am under Federal Election 2007

There is now enough data available to dispel the notion that the election campaign would break the trend evident in polling throughout the year. The Labor camp is accordingly lifting its barrage from the front line and taking aim at the reserve trenches. The following apparently safe Liberal seats are said to be raising hopes in one camp and fears in the other:

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Seat du jour: Corangamite

Published by William Bowe at 6:04 am under Federal Election 2007

Since its creation at federation, Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne. The electorate was entirely rural until 1955, when it crept into Geelong’s outer suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont. Labor’s only wins have been in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Ross Daniels, Labor candidate for Ryan, happened to be campaigning outside Toowong Village shopping centre when we went there a couple of hours ago. He happily posed for a photo, which one of the ladies with him took using our camera (making sure to get the shopping centre tower in so people could tell where we were!).

We wished him luck -and boy do we ever, even though we'll probably both vote Green- but he'll need more than that to overturn Michael Johnson's massive margin and grab the seat. Too many wealthy Howard-lovers here... in fact, whenever a bitchy, expensively-dressed housewife tries to run us over with a shopping trolley in Coles, Gam and I often look at each other and say "Liberal voter!".

Seat du jour: McMillan

Published by William Bowe at 9:36 pm under Federal Election 2007

McMillan extends from Pakenham in Melbourne’s outer east through West Gippsland to the outer reaches of the Latrobe Valley, and along the coast from Wonthaggi through Wilsons Promontory to Welshpool

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Our Saturday bike ride- and how Bob Brown got away

On Saturday we went for a bike ride. Intending to go to New Farm, we first rode over the Eleanor Schonell bridge to the Mrs Flannery's at Woolloongabba to buy coffee beans. Because we haven't ridden anywhere in ages I've lost all my 'cycling muscles', so we stopped on the ES bridge to take some photos before heading to Mrs F's. Nice to see the view of the river down toward Indooroopilly and Sherwood for a change.



Gam took some pictures of the Dutton Park cemetery. We have fond memories of the place thanks to an 'adventure' where we caught the wrong train and hopped off there, unsure of our Brisbane geography, only to be caught in a storm and having to walk through the cemetery to the Ferry in the pouring rain, with thunder and lightning all around us- and me barefoot thanks to one of my sandals breaking!



By the time we'd got to Mrs Flannery's, Gam had pity on me and said we could always do New Farm next weekend, so we rode to Southbank for a New Zealand Natural ice cream. Normally we shy away from visiting Southbank on the weekend, because it's chock-full of smoking bogans and their spawn. Thanks to the refurbishment of the fake beach it was much quieter. Still a high proportion of smokers among the people there, but because there were far fewer people than usual it wasn't anywhere near as bad. Gam (as always) had Cookies and Cream ice cream, while I had an Orange Choc-chip ice cream. I couldn't remember if I liked the orange choc-chip or mint better- I think the orange and chocolate ice cream I was thinking fondly of was the Haagen Daasz in the City (which is usually an awful ice cream experience thanks again to all the goddamned smokers that pollute the place). The New Zealand Natural Orange Choc-Chip flavour isn't really orange-y or tangy at all. But it is a really attractive fluoro orange colour! Come to think of it, the photo below doesn't really do justice to the colour- it seems to look more of a peachy colour...



As we were about to leave Southbank we spied a small group of people with Greens flags attached to their bikes and wearing Greens t-shirts, so we asked them if we could take a couple of photos. It turned out that Bob Brown had been in New Farm that morning and they had been to see him speak (d'oh!!!). The guy in the photo is Wally Guthrie, membership secretary for the Mount Cootha branch of the Queensland Greens, while his wife Elizabeth Guthrie is the Greens candidate for the seat of Brisbane!

Elizabeth Guthrie, candidate for the federal seat of Brisbane, with husband Wally.

Wally has asked us to help hand out Greens how-to-vote cards on election day. I've always considered myself an open-minded voter, but I said to Gam the other day that with this federal election being the third I'll have voted in, and my fundamental disagreements with the principles (or lack of) espoused by the major parties, I can see myself unwittingly ending up a lifelong Greens voter. So perhaps we'll be taking Mikey's advice and joining up in the near future, as long as the Greens don't have clauses in their charter that prevent us from mouthing off whenever we feel like it. At the very least we'll likely be doing the HTV thing on election day. And signing up for email updates to better keep our eye on Bob Brown's whereabouts. Curse my weak legs and our Saturday morning sleep-in!

Wally Guthrie and some friends.

Pollyspotting: Michael Johnson

Our local member (we live in the safe Liberal seat of Ryan), spotted this morning when I saw a bunch of guys in yellow shirts conducting a synchronised waving exercise every time a car passed them on Benson St, Toowong. I had to wait a bit before I could see the signs they were standing in front of, but sure enough they had Michael Johnson's face plastered all over them. Typically, I forgot the camera and had to make do with my mobile, so you can't even really recognise anyone... Johnson is the little dude in the stripey shirt. In the last photo I think a couple of them might have even noticed me snapping them and waved, because the wave I caught on camera wasn't nearly as choreographed as the ones they were doing for the cars.

I had two hunches this morning- one was to take my camera when dropping Gam off at the train station, and the other was to wear my Kevin07 t-shirt. Both ignored. Dammit.

Seat du jour: Makin

Published by William Bowe at 5:55 am under Federal Election 2007

The north-eastern Adelaide electorate of Makin was created in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of Bonython, a seat made safe for Labor by Elizabeth to the north-east (until its abolition at the 2004 election). Makin currently extends from Para Hills and Walkley Heights near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. As my swing and vote result maps for Crikey demonstrate, Labor rules the roost as far east as Salisbury East and Modbury North, beyond which are suburbs with somewhat higher incomes. Census data prepared by George Megalogenis of The Australian shows the seat to be highly sensitive to interest rates, coming nineteenth on the ranking of electorates with the most mortgage payers and ninth on “couple families with dependent children paying off home”. However, it also ranks in the lowest quarter on mortgage burden (“median repayment divided by median income”) and the lowest third on “median household income for those paying off their homes”.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Seat du jour: Hasluck

Published by William Bowe at 4:22 am under Federal Election 2007

Located in Perth’s eastern suburbs, Hasluck was created when Western Australia gained an extra seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. As my maps for Crikey illustrate, it consists of three distinct population areas which lean to Labor in the north and south, and to the Liberals in the centre. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of elderly voters, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. The southern suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.

Full post at The Poll Bludger