Gam and I made a bit of a mad scramble to get to the Greens' Queensland campaign launch today. Gam had clinic, so he caught the train to Ipswich at 7:30am and returned early at around 12pm so we could ride to Ahimsa House at West End for the launch. We'd originally planned on catching the City Cat there, but upon finding we'd have to wait half an hour, Gam said it would be faster to ride there over the William Jolly bridge. And so it would have been if the route from the Coronation St riverside bike path over the bridge and to Ahimsa House hadn't been a veritable obstacle course filled with death traps and what seemed like a total lack of pedestrian crossings and traffic lights. It must have been the least pedestrian and cyclist-friendly part of Brisbane we've ever been to.
Consequently, we were late.
We arrived about 5 minutes before Bob Brown finished his speech and crept around trying to find good spots to take photos from without trampling on or blocking the views of the roughly 50 or so people who attended. The light inside was pretty terrible and after the speech Bob Brown headed outside for a chat to the media.
On his way out he was accosted by several people including Gam, who asked him to pose for a photo with me- Gam said we were nobodies and would he mind having his photo taken with me, and of course Bob Brown said that wasn't at all true and happily posed for a photo. Classic photo position with his hand behind my back, which I realised was all sweaty and gross because we'd ridden there and I had been wearing a backpack. Sorry about that, Bob! He had the good grace not to look disgusted :)
I later told Gam he should have introduced himself as 'the inventor of lolhowards'. Which isn't strictly true given that one blogger did one back in May and Gam's first one was in July, but it still would have sounded good!
Gam snapped about a million pictures while Bob Brown did his speech outside- the idea is that you've got a better chance of getting a good one if you snap loads, and I suppose it's true to some extent. He also tried hard to get a nice photo of the Greens' Queensland senate candidate Larissa Waters- we think she looks a tad manic and scary in her campaign photos and we figured we could do better:
Gam also snapped a nice picture or two of the media:
We also caught up with the Greens' candidate for the federal seat of Brisbane, Elizabeth Guthrie, who we first met by chance at Southbank a couple of weeks ago. In the same vein as the Facebook group 'I wish I lived in Bennelong so I could vote for Maxine' I almost wish we lived in the seat of Brisbane so I could vote for Elizabeth. She seems lovely. Guess I'll have to settle for Dr Evan Jones, our local Greens candidate (Ryan).
All in all an interesting experience. Not particularly exciting (unless you count the near death experiences trying to cross the roads where there were no pedestrian crossings for miles... and we were near a primary school and a park!). There was a nice moment when a bunch of kids doing what looked like a gym class in the school hall across the road started cheering and waving at Bob Brown. Gam wondered if they even knew who he was, but then some of them started yelling 'go the Greens!', so I suppose they did. It was terribly cute and would have been a great photo opportunity if there hadn't been the stupid business of having to have the kids' parents sign release forms before any photographs could be used, so no photos were taken. You can bet your arse John Howard or Kevin Rudd would have sprinted across the road to take advantage of an opportunity like that, traffic not withstanding.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Greens Queensland Campaign Launch
Disposable heroes of hypocrisy
jadamo76 has a few posts about the former union members in the Liberal Party. He also points us in the direction of Peter Martin's post on the subject.
Hello to our workers union members:
- Tony Abbott
- Brendan Nelson
- Andrew Robb
- Malcolm Turnbull
And the student unions:
- Joe Hockey
- Peter Costello
- Tony Abbott (again)
- Gary Humphries
- Sophie Mirabella
Ms Fits also touches on the Costello history.
I just love politics.
*apologies to Mr Franti
John Howard: not, not... responsible
Midnight Oil, if I've unintentionally messed with your copyright to "Forgotten Years", please excuse me as it is in a noble cause!
Original Post at 'Labor View from Broome'
Could Labor's soft strategy lead to loss?
Could even John Howard make these men look impotent?This is something that's been bothering me all week, mainly because the same thing happened during the disastrous 2004 election campaign: Labor clearly has the same people running their advertising campaigns as they did back then. This was worrying me back in July, and I really hoped the ALP would wake up to themselves in the meantime. What we should be doing is seeing ads putting some steel-toed boots into the ribs of the Libs while they're down in the polls. Some more anti-Workchoices ads. Some more 'John Howard has been asleep on climate change' ads. Some ads reminding people of how Howard spent $2 billion of their money on ads promoting himself and his policies (and maybe a promise to change the rules so that can't happen again? Helloooo?). Anything that will remind people of why they shouldn't be voting for Howard, and I don't mean more of those lame anti-Costello ads.
Instead we've been getting nice, bland Kevin Rudd, speaking in measured tones, soft enough to appeal to grandmas yet forceful enough to sound statesmanlike, with soft, inspirational music playing in the background. Enough, Kevin! You can be a statesman after you win the frigging election. Anything earlier is just playing make-believe. It didn't work for Mark Latham and it won't work for you. The polls are heading in Howard's favour already, and presidential-style ads aren't going to stop his $34 billion vote-buying spree having an impact on the electorate.
One positive to come out of this week is actually Rudd's response to the $34 billion in tax cuts- given his past form I expected Labor to fall for the same trick as last election, making lots of promises in support of schools, the healthcare system etc and then promising tax cuts on top of it all to match the government and consequently looking weak on their fiscal management.
Just one final note- how much of an ass is Wayne Swan? I guess there's the possibility that he's under instruction to 'stay on message', in which case he's been given the wrong message, but in interviews this week he seems to be running around trying to be Peter Costello to Kevin Rudd's John Howard, once again missing the opportunity to put the boot into Workchoices and the effect it has on ordinary people's earnings.
Oh, and you know who I think we should be seeing more of? Julia Gillard.
Somebody slap them!
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Union attacks
Mr Hockey, whose Liberal Party has launched scathing election advertisements highlighting the 70 per cent of Labor frontbenchers with a union background, said it was incredible Labor intended to govern with such a high union representation.
"[The role of unions] is essentially over," Mr Hockey told ABC Radio today.
"That's because we have a system with a strong, independent umpire that is providing protections for workers.
"Because the unions do not cover 80 per cent of the workers out there, we find that people are turning to the Workplace Authority and the Workplace Ombudsman to obtain information and to get protection."
Mr Hockey said workers who were not union members could turn to the Workplace Ombudsman for advice, but the Labor Party wanted to dismantle that office.
He said Australians viewed unions as irrelevant and were choosing not to join them, a trend that started under former Labor prime minister Bob Hawke.
No, the reasons people aren't joining the unions is because they still have an old-fashioned view of them, and the government scare campaign over many years has wormed its way into the minds of the populace. The unions are not good at positive self-promotion.
Very few unions are as militant as they were. Because over the years they were achieving many of the goals they aimed for. But now, they have a higher profile because the government is systematically eroding their achievements. My grandfather must be rolling over in his grave. (He was heavily involved in unions. Actually even got a mention in a book about them - the name of which escapes me at present.) People started leaving the unions when Hawke was PM because they had yet to catch up with the general feelings of the public. But now they have.
Personally, I don't think much can be achieved nowdays by going on strike. Because unlike in my grandfather's era, there is less of a feeling of community in the population. If people went on strike back then, other people would support them and the reasons for the strike. People wouldn't become scabs because they knew they faced ostracisation, which doesn't happen so much now because big-business has such a foothold in the minds of the public and all people seem to care about is profit over the well-being of the people who help achieve that profit.
The public has become complacent. And now we are facing the consequences.
"I don't think anyone would have thought that in 2007 it would be credible for Kevin Rudd to go to an election with 70 per cent of his frontbench made up of former union officials, and that would be a dramatic increase in the number of union officials that, say, Bob Hawke had," he said.
Irrelevant. I'll keep saying it - you must be a union member to be in the ALP*. So naturally the chances of the bulk of the frontbench being former union officials is high. Being a union official is a politicised position. It is a natural stepping stone for someone in the ALP who wants to make a difference in the government. End of story.
Just because a politician is a former union official it does not mean that they will allow themselves to be unfairly influenced by the unions. They know that come the next election, if people are unhappy with their performance, they will be given the boot - so in a way, their involvement with the union movement can be seen as something that prevents them from making extreme choices.
The ACTU has hit back at a Liberal Party campaign highlighting the union affiliations of Labor's frontbench team, saying it is insulting to working families.
ACTU president Sharan Burrow said a television advertisement released yesterday by the Liberals was wrong to suggest unions were anti-business.
The ad was also insulting to the millions of Australians whose job security and living standards were protected by unions.
"The job of all unions is to protect secure, well-paid employment for Australian working families," she said.
"To achieve this we need profitable businesses that value their workers. (my empahsis)
Workers who are valued are happy. Happy workers are more productive. This means that businesses achieve more.
I'll concede that not all business will use WorkChoices as a means to take advantage of their workers. But there are those that will. And until you can guarantee that no workers will be unfairly treated, you cannot write off the unions. An agency set up by the government should not be relied on as the only organisation that will ensure that worker's rights are protected.
The government scare campaign will continue. You've probably seen the latest bit of propaganda by now. See it here if you've not.
Labor have hit back with Rudd calling out Howard's scare campaign with a "Fresh Ideas" ad.
*apparently this is untrue. As I said in my comment - a number of years ago before I'd gotten around to joining the QPSU, I rang the ALP and was informed I'd need to be a union member. Is this a recent thing? Can anyone enlighten?
But I don't believe that it makes my comments any less valid. Given that the ALP is traditionally aligned with the unions, it is hardly a surprise that most, if not all, of the pollies have union affiliations of some description.
A new approach for The Greens
Jeremy has figured out a new campaign approach for The Greens. It's pretty damn good and would certainly make people think about what the party really stands for rather than all the crap that other political parties (and "interested observers" who don't even vote) like to say they represent.
Check it out.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Ask a Polly
Ross Daniels, Labor candidate for Ryan, has replied to the email we sent out, asking about his opinion re: Andrews and Sudanese migrants. He directs us to his blog post on the issue and says he'd be happy to meet us. Right. so here's your big chance to ask a real live Labor party candidate a few tough questions! Stick them in the comments and we'll ask them and post the replies (within reason)! Thanks to Mr Daniels for being so generous with his time. Here's his blog post on the Sudanese migrants issue. Have a look at the rest of his blog, the bloke seems to have his own opinion.
The kids are alright
“YouTube generation is poised to deliver the killer blow to John Howard’s election chances”, read the headline in Sunday’s Sun-Herald. The evidence: polling agency Taverner’s remarkable finding that Labor held a 73-27 lead among Sydney and Melbourne voters aged 18 to 29.
Full post at The Poll Bludger
Labor has its fake campaign too
The media has become as awed of the ritual of the campaign as they were of the Budget in May when Costello announced the last round of tax cuts. If they are surprised that such a major launch is announced now rather than later in the campaign when it might make more electoral sense, then it is because they under-estimate the urgency of the Liberals' morale that a strong start of a big round of tax cuts are intended to address. However if the media is taking the Liberals campaign start too much at face value, they are making the same mistake with Labor's start on Workchoices. Labor has its internal needs too.
Full post at The Piping Shrike
Wider than the generation gap
Posted by Andrew Elder at 11:30 AM
We've come a long, long way together
Through the hard times and the good
I have to celebrate you baby
I have to praise you like I should
I have to praise you
I have to praise you
I have to praise you
I have to praise you like I should
- Fatboy Slim Praise You
Wider than the generation gap is the credibility gap of the Howard government, and those of its boosters who have not turned dingo like Albrechtsen.
Full post at Politically Homeless
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Screwed
Watching Insight on young voters from the Brisbane seat of Moreton. So far:
1 guy is voting Liberal because he's a concreter and got a pay rise, 'because of the IR laws'.
1 guy is voting Liberal because he lives at home with his parents and, 'the economy is real strong.'
The Greens speaker is clueless, basically promising a workers paradise with no mention of how to pay for it. Also it's a very uni-centric paradise, lots of talk about HECS etc. Life doesn't revolve around uni!
Most speakers don't even know what they want, let alone what any party wants to do.
A large number of speakers base their decisions on how their family/parents vote. What a tragedy. That is NEVER a good reason to decide who to vote for.
No one watches the news. Big surprise. Wouldn't do them much good anyway.
Insightful comment: Politicians need to be less formal and more relaxed talking to younger voters. Get to the point and give people a say. Howard's YouTube announcements are presented as a pathetic joke, a sad attempt to be relevant by a politician who doesn't get it. Agreed there. The Libs don't really get the 'net. Labor don't but they seem to be trying a bit harder and succeeding a bit more.
The BBQ factor again. Rudd's stripper incident (thanks Alexander Downer) played well, making Rudd look like a 'regular bloke'. Crusty old Labor polly doesn't get it. It's not about telling people what you stand for. It's about giving people the chance to find out what you REALLY stand for. Of course there's a bit of conflict there.
Also unions have failed to engage young people in the IR campaign. A lot of speakers don't seem to know anything about it at all. Lambs to the slaughter really.
Lots of talk about "strong economy" but only one person has talked about how Australian workers aren't getting their fair share. Also well said whoever mentioned the lack of the focus on the future with the govt.'s economic management. People want to know where are we going from here.
Global warming skeptic, votes Liberal of course. Reckons his vote can be won only by focusing on issues that directly affect him. Basically pay him and you win. Nice. Non Liberal aligned voters seem open to new information and appear willing to consider it. Liberal aligned voters on the panel seem to be pretty much in lockstep.
Show's over.
So, clearly we're doomed. The only young voters who care are in it for themselves. The rest just aren't sure. Damned by indifference. Are we going to look back on this election in 50 years and think back on how we could have made a difference but just couldn't be fucked?
Also, about this blog. We set it up for people to contribute, to talk about things they feel are important or just to express themselves. Why not make the leap from reader to contributor?
Workers and homebuyers beware!
At his Press Conference with Costello yesterday, John Howard explained why Work Choices will keep interest rates low and contain inflationary pressure:
...one reason why we’re not concerned is that we have an industrial relations system that in fact contains wage pressure.That can only mean that under Work Choices wages will be lower than under the Rudd alternative. Yet he has been telling us for months that it is delivering real wage increases. He can’t have it both ways.
Coalition announces new tax package (The Australian, Press conference transcript, 15 October 2007)
I’ve been doing a little Maths about interest rates using the 6.5% figure rather than Howard’s slip of 6.25%.
Firstly, before the last 5 rises of 0.25% the rate was 5.25%. That means we have had an increase of nearly 24% in mortgage payments since the last election claim that the government will keep rates at record lows.
Secondly, an increase of 0.25% on a loan of $400,000 is $1,000 per year. The 1.25% increase represents $5,000 per year. Oooops…there go our tax cuts.
No apologies if the figures are wrong. Howard didn't but then he never apologises.
Original post at: Labor View from Broome
Tax cuts for the Liberals
Back in May when the politically astute Treasurer handed down his twelfth budget, he included tax cuts totaling $31.5bn over four years. Commentators saw it as a political triumph and forcing Rudd onto the back foot. Rudd's response was to run a telly ad on his personal conservative values and talk in Parliament about something to do with putting more lathes in schools. In the end, the polls barely moved.
Full Post at The Piping Shrike
It's in the bag, baby! ...Or is it?
This post by comicstriphero pretty well sums up my own feelings about the impending federal election.
Despite all my fretful, paranoid self-chastisement upon each and every optimistic thought.
Despite the hours spent going back over old news articles and blog posts from October 2004, in an attempt to re-live the sting and despair.
Despite the analysis of the ‘softness’ of the current polls, which should really have brought me back down to earth.
I admit it.
I have gotten my hopes up.
"Yeah baby! This thing is in the bag! Nothing could possibly go wrong now!"
I guess it might seem like there is nothing wrong with this...
More here.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Election fun
Howard's announcement from yesterday:
"...the right leadership is the leadership that delivers the team that knows how to do the job. The right leadership is the leadership that has the experience to further expand the prosperity of the Australian economy and to ensure that everybody gets a fair share of it."
That made me snort. If he thinks that people are currently getting their fair share of it, then he's just having a nice old wank for the cameras.
"The right leadership is the leadership that is willing to take unpopular decisions in the short-term that have a long-term benefit for the Australian community."
Tell me, what unpopular short-term decisions have been made so far that have a long-term benefit? I cannot think of one myself.
This my favourite though:
"The right leadership is a group of men and women who will govern for all Australians and who will not be beholden to a narrow section of the Australian community."
While we know exactly what he thinks he's talking about (those scary, mean unions), lets just sit and think of all the people in the Australian community who have been repeatedly fucked over by the current government. Let's think of the LARGE section of the Australian community who has been.
But then we get right down to it, just in case you were too stupid to realise what he was getting at:
"...70% of whom are former trade union officials."
Hmmmm...wonder what card is going to be played ad nauseam over the next 6 weeks. Jesus christ. Everyone knows the ALP was founded on the backs of the workers! Of course former union officials are going to be high-ranking members! You have to be a member of a union to be in the ALP!
"Is it a government that is offering stability in it's key personnel..."
This from the man who has publicly stated that he will stand down partway through the term should he be re-elected! So, is the PM position not a key position?
He bangs on about balance? Robbing the country of the necessary checks and balances? How about a majority in the Senate Mr Howard? How about the fact that you have used your majority to force through legislation that would never have passed had there been a decent balance in the upper house? What about the concept of the Senate estimates committee? Forgotten about that, haven't we?
I can't talk anymore about his comments. It just makes me want to vomit.
On to Rudd:
"...new leadership with fresh ideas..."
Ideas that have yet to be announced. Far too much metooism in the ALP at the moment.
"...a goverment that's lost touch..."
They never had it to begin with.
He speaks of how the Liberals won't make changes. They will. That's the problem. The changes that they make are never for the better for the majority of people. So their problem isn't that things won't change, it is that things will continue to do so, to the detriment of the country.
What really shits me about both of them (Howard and Rudd) is that they only seem to think that families count in Australia. And by families they mean a married mum and dad and their kids. Not everyone wants kids. Not everyone can have kids. Hell, not everyone can get married!
Anyway, there are the speeches if you didn't get to see them yesterday. Please don't forget that there are other political parties in Australia. Certainly, the PM will end up being from one of the major two parties, but that does not mean that a vote for the Greens or the Democrats is a wasted vote, provided you vote correctly. That's the beauty of the preferential voting system.
Watch Out For Those Vikings
Niall writes:
Greens candidate Boccabella got 33% of primary in the Brisbane by-election last night [sat]; although she probably captured a fair few little L liberals who didn't have any other options and probably some QLP semi-protest voters, this close to a federal election those sort of numbers suggests to me a solid greens platform in the wealthy centre of Brisbane, which I expect will transform into a wider acceptance of the Greens as a legitimate choice in the inner Brisbane seats both by voters but importantly by other parties. This result (which it must be pointed out was somewhat higher than some pollsters suggest could be possible) provides greater leverage for preference deals.
From these numbers, I was impressed at the Viking vote is larger than the ONP vote, even if this is an inner city seat - although admittedly due mostly, I suspect, to old Erik have place number one on the list, as despite my searching around I still can't find out who he is or what he stands for, aside from the fact he once worked as a historiographer (and because he was out polled by the informal). Anyhow, go Saxons!
Newspoll: 56-44
After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent.
Full post at The Poll Bludger
Galaxy: 51-49 in Queensland marginals
The Courier-Mail has published a Galaxy poll of the Queensland marginals Bonner, Moreton, Longman and Herbert, which shows a collective Labor lead of just 51-49. Based on results in these seats in 2004, Adam Carr calculates a swing to Labor of 5.1 per cent – enough to
Full post at The Poll Bludger
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Environmentally Friendly
Whales near Coral Bay
(Photo: Heather Milton)
LaborView is back. We have just returned from a couple of weeks visiting the North West Cape, known internationally for the Ningaloo Reef and during the Cold War for the controversial U.S. communications base at Exmouth. It’s still spying on our neighbours but Australia is supposed to be in charge.
Ningaloo Reef has been in the news lately and has brought the third comment on environmental issues in as many weeks from the local Liberal MHR Barry Haase. The first was in opposition to a call by Broome wildlife identity Malcolm Douglas to reject a gas plant on the Maret Islands off the far north Kimberley coast. Wildlife stalwart under fire over gas plant comments (ABC 28 September 2007)
The second involved a controversy over why the Federal government has yet to nominate the Ningaloo Reef for world heritage listing. MP rejects claims of Commonwealth inaction on Ningaloo listing (ABC 5 October 2007)
The third was a response to ALP candidate Sharon Thiel’s opposition to nuclear waste dumps or reactors in WA. He’s against waste facilities.
Graeme Campbell, the former member for Kalgoorlie, stirred the pot by reminding voters:
When I was the Federal member, on two occasions I said I was in favour on the long-term storage of nuclear waste and my vote went up.It will be interesting to see if he is a candidate this time. Perhaps he’ll join Pauline Hanson again. I’m sure he could get some mileage out Sudanese refugees.
Federal uranium stoush (Kalgoorlie Miner 11 October 2007)
Original post at: Labor View from Broome
Election 2007: Bennelong Time, Prime Minister
Our friend Niall sent us the link to this YouTube video, saying it's so good it even beats the Chaser's Stairway to Kevin, and he was right. Awesome video. If I get to have my 'Howard Loses' party I'll be playing the Led Zepplin song in honour of the occasion.
PM’s announcement to recognise Indigenous Australians in our Constitution
Posted by Andrew Bartlett under Indigenous Issues
John Howard’s announcement in a speech to the Sydney Institute that – if re-elected - he will seek to hold a referendum to formally recognise indigenous Australians in our Constitution is unexpected, but I think it is very welcome.
I’ve already seen comment brimming with cynicism about this announcement, suggesting it’s a pre-election stunt or even a way to keep the Prime Ministership away from Peter Costello for more than half of the next term if he does manage to get re-elected.
Personally, I couldn’t care less what his other motivations might be. And of course it would have been better if he’d tried to do something like this ages ago. But it’s still a good step, albeit only a first step, towards implementing just one measure amongst the many needed to properly recognise and respect the unique role the First Australians play in our nation’s past, present and future.
Full post at The Bartlett Diaries
Larissa Waters Responds
Dear Gameli,
As I said to a recent forum hosted by the Ethnic Communities Council of Qld,
I think recent comments by Kevin Andrews, Pauline Hanson and Gary Hardgraves
are racist and ignore the real facts, which show very low levels of crime in
the Sudanese community.
I have publicly apologised to Sudanese Australians on behalf of Kevin
Andrews. The 6,000 Sudanese Australians in Queensland are all welcome here,
along with their families. I hope they can forgive us for individuals like
Pauline Hanson and Kevin Andrews, who do not represent the bulk of warm,
generous Australians.
On more formal policy matters, The Greens do not support the use of
'integration' concerns as a reason to adjust immigration quotas. It is not a
relevant criteria when assessing humanitarian refugees. Increased support
services for newly arrived refugees is the obvious answer to any settlement
problems not a knee jerk, politically suspect decision to ban African
refugees.
A full copy of the speech I gave at the ECCQ event is attached for your
information.
Kind regards, and thanks for seeking my comment,
Larissa
Larissa Waters
B.Sc (Envt), LLB (Hons), Grad Dip (LP), Solicitor
Greens Lead Senate Candidate for Queensland
North Brisbane Branch Convenor
www.larissawaters.net
Don't forget to suggest a question for Ross Daniels!
Reconciliation and Range Rovers
Filed under: strategy — Possum Comitatus @ 10:56 am
“I’m convinced we are dealing today with a new alignment of ideas and individuals; a coming together of forces I have not witnessed in 32 years of public life.
As always, the Australian people themselves are the best guide.”….. John Howard
The PM is right in more ways than he probably meant to let on.
That alignment of individuals is the blue and white collar workers on the one hand, and affluent professionals and their spouses on the other. The former make up the seats that provides the Coalition its governing majority, the latter makes up the seats that provide the Coalition its very existence.
Over the last few weeks, Liberal polling has seemingly been undertaken in seats like Kooyong, Goldstein, Higgins, Wentworth, North Sydney, Ryan etc. We know this, because my email box gets filled up with people telling me that they’ve just been polled, where they live and the name of the company that polled them. These seats aren’t just “seats” in the normal meaning of the word; they are the very heart of the Liberal party that pumps leadership blood and fund raising capability through the body of the entire organisation.
Without those types of Range Rover seats, there is no functioning Liberal party.
Howard to get his arse kicked
YOUNG voters, fearful about jobs, are poised to deliver a savage blow to John Howard's fifth-term election prospects, an exclusive Sun-Herald/Taverner poll has found.
The Prime Minister will visit Yarralumla today to advise Governor-General Michael Jeffery of his wish to dissolve Parliament and call a federal election for either November 24 or December 1.
He will do so as the devastating poll reveals his long-time critical support among older voters has also eroded dramatically.
The poll, conducted in NSW and Victoria, revealed Mr Howard entering the election campaign a whopping 18 per cent behind Labor on a two-party preferred basis - 59 per cent to 41 per cent.
Across nearly all demographics and among men and women Labor has leapt ahead, pointing to a landslide victory for the Opposition.
If mirrored on polling day, it would mean a loss to the Government of more than 20 seats.
Hatred of Mr Howard's workplace laws emerged as the critical factor in the dramatic shift in support away from the Government.
First-time voters and the under 29s cited fears about jobs and employment security as the reason they would not vote for the Government.
SMH
Younger people are less likely to vote for the Liberals anyway, so that comes as little surprise. But the wrinkly vote, the vote that - along with the religious conservative vote - is generally the one that gives him an edge.
Theoretically, the IR changes are going to be the thing that kicks the government while they're down. Good. Let's just hope that people remember all the things that the government has done to screw people over.
Insiders is on at the moment. They are expecting the election to be called in hours.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria
Published by William Bowe at 8:45 pm under Federal Election 2007
Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Holding out for a better offer
Published by Andrew Elder
(Published in today's Crikey newsletter)
I live in Bennelong and received a survey form from my local MP. It contains no Liberal Party livery and shows the local member in an open-necked blue shirt and cargo pants with pamphlets in his hands, as though he were a local running for council.
Why is he asking for my opinions now? Isn’t it too late to tailor his messages? Why no Liberal logos, and why hasn't the election been called yet? None of the explanations offered so far are convincing.
I suspect the reason the election hasn't been called yet is because donations to the Liberal Party have dried up.
Full post at Politically Homeless
Seat du jour: McMillan
McMillan extends from Pakenham in Melbourne’s outer east through West Gippsland to the outer reaches of the Latrobe Valley, and along the coast from Wonthaggi through Wilsons Promontory to Welshpool
Full post at The Poll Bludger
From one red morgue to another
Nick XenophonToday has brought a fascinating development in the battle for control of the Senate, with South Australian Legislative Council “No Pokies” member Nick Xenophon throwing his hat into the ring. Xenophon pulled off one of the most sensational achievements in Australia’s recent electoral history at the election last March, when his ticket polled 20.5 per cent of the statewide vote – only 5.5 per cent less than the Liberal Party.
Full post at The Poll Bludger
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Road to nowhere
The past few days have seen a lot of discussion in the media about the state of play in all-important Queensland. On Monday, Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that the Liberals’ internal polling was worse in blue-ribbon Ryan than in any other Coalition-held Queensland seat, apart from Bonner. Liberal member Michael Johnson reportedly blames this on the government’s determination to solve western Brisbane’s traffic problems by building the Goodna bypass rather than upgrading the Ipswich Motorway, a decision made with a view to shoring up the Ipswich-based seat of Blair.
Full post at The Poll Bludger
Reuters poll trend: 56.8-43.2
Reuters’ twice-monthly poll trend, a weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen, shows a slight easing of Labor’s two-party lead since September 16, down from 57.7-42.3 to 56.8-43.2. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49.5 per cent to 49.0 per cent and the Coalition’s is up from 38.2 per cent to 39.1 per cent. Both leaders are down slightly on the preferred prime minister rating, Kevin Rudd from 49.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and John Howard
Full post at The Poll Bludger
McClelland Fucks Up
Robert McClelland, a man who's been a front bencher for nearly ten years, recently decided Kevin was having it a bit too easy and decided to attack John Howard. The problem with this is that Robert chose to attack Howard's strongest point, uphill.
Let's face facts. We need Rudd to remove the Liberal majority. This is the primary goal at this election. McClelland has had several opportunities to break ranks and make principled statements on govt. hipocrisy re: human rights. the 2001 election and the Pacific solution come to mind. Why now, on the anniversary of the single biggest issue that cost Labor the last election, would he choose to make noises on the issue?
Yes he's just stating Labor party policy but he's a fucking idiot to do it now. The death penalty wasn't an election issue. Now it's an issue that will only hurt Labor. The sections of the electorate Labor needs to win the election are not exactly known for their principled stands on human rights. He may as well have come out and said he wanted Osama to have a fair trial. Now the media have the sort of silly he said she said bullshit issue they love to keep going and the govt., with a desperation born of impending doom are pounding away at the issue, lying away about Labor supporting Bali bombers. If anything the govt.'s hysterical, overblown reaction might minimise the damage.
If Rudd hasn't issued an order to party members to shut their yaps, he's an idiot. When you're in government you can make all the quixotic statements you want. Until then, shut up and do what it takes. I don't buy the argument that Rudd's leaning towards the dark side. Would you rather have a principled opposition wandering the political wilderness while we get 3 more years of a bigger liberal majority? No? Didn't think so. It's not as if anyone is under the delusion that Howard would ever be more likely than Rudd to allow his ministers to listen to their consciences.
This post seemed to piss people off so I've reproduced it here. Flame away lurkers!
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Our Saturday bike ride- and how Bob Brown got away
On Saturday we went for a bike ride. Intending to go to New Farm, we first rode over the Eleanor Schonell bridge to the Mrs Flannery's at Woolloongabba to buy coffee beans. Because we haven't ridden anywhere in ages I've lost all my 'cycling muscles', so we stopped on the ES bridge to take some photos before heading to Mrs F's. Nice to see the view of the river down toward Indooroopilly and Sherwood for a change.
Gam took some pictures of the Dutton Park cemetery. We have fond memories of the place thanks to an 'adventure' where we caught the wrong train and hopped off there, unsure of our Brisbane geography, only to be caught in a storm and having to walk through the cemetery to the Ferry in the pouring rain, with thunder and lightning all around us- and me barefoot thanks to one of my sandals breaking!
By the time we'd got to Mrs Flannery's, Gam had pity on me and said we could always do New Farm next weekend, so we rode to Southbank for a New Zealand Natural ice cream. Normally we shy away from visiting Southbank on the weekend, because it's chock-full of smoking bogans and their spawn. Thanks to the refurbishment of the fake beach it was much quieter. Still a high proportion of smokers among the people there, but because there were far fewer people than usual it wasn't anywhere near as bad. Gam (as always) had Cookies and Cream ice cream, while I had an Orange Choc-chip ice cream. I couldn't remember if I liked the orange choc-chip or mint better- I think the orange and chocolate ice cream I was thinking fondly of was the Haagen Daasz in the City (which is usually an awful ice cream experience thanks again to all the goddamned smokers that pollute the place). The New Zealand Natural Orange Choc-Chip flavour isn't really orange-y or tangy at all. But it is a really attractive fluoro orange colour! Come to think of it, the photo below doesn't really do justice to the colour- it seems to look more of a peachy colour...
As we were about to leave Southbank we spied a small group of people with Greens flags attached to their bikes and wearing Greens t-shirts, so we asked them if we could take a couple of photos. It turned out that Bob Brown had been in New Farm that morning and they had been to see him speak (d'oh!!!). The guy in the photo is Wally Guthrie, membership secretary for the Mount Cootha branch of the Queensland Greens, while his wife Elizabeth Guthrie is the Greens candidate for the seat of Brisbane!
Wally has asked us to help hand out Greens how-to-vote cards on election day. I've always considered myself an open-minded voter, but I said to Gam the other day that with this federal election being the third I'll have voted in, and my fundamental disagreements with the principles (or lack of) espoused by the major parties, I can see myself unwittingly ending up a lifelong Greens voter. So perhaps we'll be taking Mikey's advice and joining up in the near future, as long as the Greens don't have clauses in their charter that prevent us from mouthing off whenever we feel like it. At the very least we'll likely be doing the HTV thing on election day. And signing up for email updates to better keep our eye on Bob Brown's whereabouts. Curse my weak legs and our Saturday morning sleep-in!
Wally Guthrie and some friends.Evan Jones Responds
Evan JonesThis weekend we sent the following email to several candidates in our electorate, Ryan, as well as several other QLD politicians from all parties.
Dear Mr Jones
We'd like to get in touch with you to ask for your comment on Mr Kevin
Andrews' recent comments regarding African migrants to Australia. As a
candidate in the upcoming election and as an individual, how do you feel
about his comments?
Evan Jones, Greens candidate for Ryan responds thusly:
Dear Gameli,
I hope you are well.
In regards to your question, I am appalled and sickened by Mr Andrews racist comments regarding the conduct of the Sudanese community in Australia.
I work in Stones Corner where there are a relatively large number of Sudanese refugees. I have never noticed any antisocial behaviour and, unless you count the kids playing football, I have certainty never seen any gangs.
Further more, police reports in the media have vindicated the Sudanese community from any abnormal trends.
I am also perplexed at the introduction the non-humanitarian consideration of 'integration' to the refugee intake process.
There is a humanitarian disaster in Darfur, and the plight of the refugees coming from that region is extreme. This is reason to commit more strongly to assisting in what ways we can, not a reason to pull back from our human responsibility.
Australia is a wealthy country, well able to afford to be more compassionate. We also have a rich tradition of multi-culturalism. What ever political gains the government thinks it can get by selling xenophobia I trust that the majority of Australia will not buy into it.
Yours,
Evan Jones
Australian Greens
Ryan
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Westpoll: 53-47 in WA
The West Australian today carries its monthly Westpoll survey of around 400 voters, which shows Labor’s two-party lead in WA increasing to 53-47 from 51.6-48.4 last month. Compared with the 2004 election results, this points to a swing to Labor of 8.4 per cent – which would
Full post at The Poll Bludger
Rudd’s anti-politics national tour
Anyone thinking the government will be able to make up ground during the campaign will not be encouraged by how it is handling the hospital issue. It shows everything that is wrong with its political tactics and there is no reason why that will change once the campaign starts. It started badly with its move to stop the closure of the Mersey Hospital's intensive care unit in August. For a government struggling to have a credible national agenda, stepping off the national stage to fight with the states over a local hospital funding issue was a disastrous move.
Full post at The Piping Shrike
Some Australians are more equal than others
Posted by Andrew Bartlett: Sat 6 Oct 2007
On Friday night I attended and spoke at a pre-election forum in Brisbane organised by the Ethnic Communities Council of Queensland. It was focused on the issues of immigration, citizenship, multiculturalism and refugees & asylum seekers. Other speakers apart from me were Laurie Ferguson from the ALP, Teresa Gambaro from the Liberals, Larissa Waters from the Greens and Jan Pakallus from the Citizens Electoral Council.
The forum happened to coincide with the pre-meditated and deliberate public attacks on Australians with Sudanese heritage by the Immigration Minister, Kevin Andrews, supported by the Prime Minister and other Coalition members. Not surprisingly a number of Australians there who were originally from Sudan were present who were less than happy and made their anger plain to Teresa Gambaro. I had a tiny bit of sympathy for her, as I doubt she personally supports Kevin Andrews’ comments – but only a bit.Full Post at The Bartlett Diaries
Andrew Bartlett is a Democrats Senator from Queensland.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Not With My Money - a GetUp campaign
When the Government saturated us with their Climate Clever advertising campaign, GetUp members rallied to raise an unbelievable quarter of a million dollars plus to successfully air our climate spoof ad during the AFL Grand Final.
But government spending of our taxes to advertise their party policies must stop now. Before another dollar of public money is spent, sign the urgent petition to tell Mr Howard and Mr Rudd that we demand an end to government advertising designed to spruik not inform:
www.getup.org.au/campaign/NotWithMyMoney
Every day of inaction is literally costing us $1 million in advertising. Some of it is legitimate but this Government has spent more than any other on its own advertising - estimated at almost $2 billion. Our Government is now one of the biggest advertisers in Australia, and one of the highest spending governments in the world. It is all with our money, but without our consultation or consent.
The last federal Labor government did the same, as do current state Labor governments - and while the Greens and Labor are making some positive noises there is nothing effective in Australian law to prevent this unbridled abuse of public trust and purse. Now rumours abound that John Howard even intends to break with time-honoured convention and continue taxpayer-funded propaganda during the election period itself. Sign the petition now - and we'll put your name to the $2 billion invoice we'll send to the government for our monies spent:
www.getup.org.au/campaign/NotWithMyMoney
Imagine what $2 billion of our taxes could do - close the Indigenous health gap, fill the shortfall in public schools funding, double the Government's spending on climate change. But that money has been largely wasted on political self-interest, and that is simply insulting to Australian taxpayers.
Thanks for being a part of this,
The GetUp team
PS - Malcolm Turnbull MP, Peter Garrett MP and Senator Christine Milne have all posted blogs on the Gunns pulp mill approval at GetUp's new blog pages. Click here to read their messages and join the discussion.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Equal rights for all couples
Anyone who reads my regular blog would know that I feel strongly about the issue of gay marriage. The fact that our country doesn't feel the need to legally recognise de facto gay and lesbian relationships is ludicrous, let alone the fact that the government has legislated that marriage is between a man and a woman. Quite frankly, it is disgusting and not something that any Australian should be happy about.
Sadly, the Liberals are supported by the ALP in their belief that marriage should only be between members of the opposite sex, so no matter which major party you vote for, your gay friends and family, should they want to get married, are unable to. They are not afforded the same rights that you and I take for granted. So, no matter who you vote for, to be a member LGBT community means that you are second-class citizens in a supposed democratic country.
Queer Penguin has done a post about the ALP issue, you should check it out.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Still Not Happy John
Who read Not Happy John? Pissed you off, didn't it?
Margo Kingston has released an updated version - Still Not Happy John. If it is anything like the previous, it will seriously piss you off. Based on the previous book, I can recommend this one. Not that I've read it (yet).
NHJ site here
Pollyspotting: Michael Johnson
Our local member (we live in the safe Liberal seat of Ryan), spotted this morning when I saw a bunch of guys in yellow shirts conducting a synchronised waving exercise every time a car passed them on Benson St, Toowong. I had to wait a bit before I could see the signs they were standing in front of, but sure enough they had Michael Johnson's face plastered all over them. Typically, I forgot the camera and had to make do with my mobile, so you can't even really recognise anyone... Johnson is the little dude in the stripey shirt. In the last photo I think a couple of them might have even noticed me snapping them and waved, because the wave I caught on camera wasn't nearly as choreographed as the ones they were doing for the cars.
I had two hunches this morning- one was to take my camera when dropping Gam off at the train station, and the other was to wear my Kevin07 t-shirt. Both ignored. Dammit.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Newspoll: 56-44
Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago.
Full post at The Poll Bludger