King Rat

Just who is Brendan Nelson? Well let's see what he was like in 1994...

BMJ 1994;309:562 (3 September)

News

Focus: Sydney: The rise and rise of Brendan Nelson

S Chapman

Earlier this year a colleague returned to Sydney from what had promised to be a dull meeting of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians in Hobart, the drizzle soaked capital of Tasmania. But he beamed from ear to ear. His glee was at the oration given by Brendan Nelson, the 36 year old national president of the Australian Medical Association.

Nelson, a Tasmanian GP who wears a diamond earring, had torn into the medical profession for its sleepy social reform agenda. He berated them for shirking all the big public health debates other than those that were self serving. He urged them to use their knowledge, positions, and privilege to support the things that really mattered in their communities. At the end of his speech nearly all stood and applauded.

Nelson took over the AMA' presidency in 1993, after serving an apprenticeship to the affluent, avuncular orthopaedic surgeon Bruce Shepherd. During the 1993 federal election Shepherd campaigned on behalf of the (now deposed) Liberal leader, John Hewson, prompting Prime Minister Paul Keating to describe him as the "most ugly, most rapacious union leader" in Australia.

Nelson, in contrast, is from what the Labor party calls a "true believer" background. Grandson of a communist and son of a Labor loyalist he had been a Labor party member, but he resigned when he took up AMA politics so as to be seen as nonpartisan in his dealings.

Nelson has transformed the public face of AMA politics. Once seen as the guardian of medical privilege the AMA is now most often heard through Nelson's plain speaking about oppressed groups, reform, and bungling bureaucracy. The Australian media find him irresistible. While many in the Australian health system are mesmerised by the emperor's new clothes of the 1990s (health outcomes, customer focus, etc) Nelson speaks no nonsense talk about real health problems. In the past 12 months he has breathed life into debates about drug policy, euthanasia, homosexual law reform, environmentalism, immunisation, declining funding for medical research, and hotels supplying women with free drinks to attract hard drinking men. His most sustained efforts have been directed at Australia's appalling Aborginal health record, the health consequences of unemployment, and hounding the tobacco industry.

In August it was widely reported that Nelson would be forsaking medical politics for the popular variety. He confirmed that he had been approached by both main parties, and the main intrigue now focuses on which way he will jump. He remains tight lipped. The Liberal party in Australia has been out of power since 1983, and despite rhetoric about a new direction, remains bereft of leadership. Nelson would give the party a charisma transplant but at great risk of arousing Australian's suspicion of turncoats and political opportunists.

The Labor party keeps no seats warm for old comrades who "rat" on the party by leaving it. For some too Nelson remains tainted by his past association with Shepherd's overt support for the Liberals and by the abiding suspicion that the profile he gives to public health issues is a Trojan horse for the AMA's real business: the preservation of doctors' incomes.

But many suspect that Nelson's first duty is to social medicine - to the unemployed, Aboriginal health, the further humiliation of the tobacco industry - all subjects where the Liberal party has a weak record. These are issues where he is at his most animated. Those who know him find the public stand consonant with the private man. He has often said pragmatically that political change requires working from with in a major political party. Labor therefore seems most likely. If Nelson jumps into the desperate-for-talent Liberal boat he may just sink with it.

How prophetic. Nelson appears to become captain of one of the Titanic's lifeboats. He's now leader of a party so dumbstruck by defeat they've opted for a former union boss and Labor party member to lead their party. This is after having run a massive scare campaign on union bosses. There's a rumour that Nelson won because he wouldn't say sorry to Indigenous Australians while Turnbull would. If this ideological blind-spot is all that's holding the Liberal party together, it's going to be a long three years for them.

A staged implosion – an update

Posted by the piping shrike at Monday, November 26, 2007

Well that was quick. Costello’s refusal of the leadership has undermined the brief stability given by the Liberals holding up reasonably well in their blue ribbon metropolitan seats. In doing so he paid back the party that had refused to give him the leadership on a plate a year ago.

The obvious barb in Costello’s press conference was the attack on the NSW Liberal Party, blaming them for the Lindsay fiasco. He probably had a point.

Full post at The Piping Shrike

Facing up to Howards legacy

Possum Comitatus has a good analysis of the Liberal party's rock and a hard place leadership problem

It’s a tough choice for the top job of the Chief Eater of the shit sandwich, and that’s exactly what being the first Opposition leader of a routed government is all about.

For the next 3 years, as every misdemeanour or gross political felony that the previous government committed is thrown back in their face, when every dirty little policy secret or suppressed statistic is released into a hungry news cycle, the next leader has to sit there and go “Mmmmm Hmmm - tastes like chicken“.

It doesn’t matter what opposition leaders say for the first term - no one listens to them anyway. The only reason people know that opposition leaders exist in their first stint out of government is because they just happen to be the poor Shmo’s that become the target of a new government’s political retribution.

Now honestly - who can see Malcolm Turnbull sitting there sucking that up?

Full post at Possums Pollytics

Lexy D

Pic via Crikey

Downer on the 7:30 report. Tosser.

He claims he doesn't have the "enthusiasm" for the position of opposition leader. Hmmm...I suspect it is more that the party doesn't have the enthusiasm for him.

Banging on about his contact internationally due to his 11 years as Foreign Minister

Not "dramatically" surprised about Costello.

"I will continue to help the liberal party and I will listen to what they want me to do in the future." ???

Now saying that Turnbull has great experience when yesterday on Insiders he said he'd "only" been there for 3 years. Not Turnbull, Abbott and Nelson not neophytes.

My god, he's getting even more annoying.

Kissing Costello's arse. "Didn't ever have the numbers" for leadership. Interesting. "At any time." !!!!

What motivated the PM to ask ministers if he should stay, then reject the advice? All the wonderful work they did during 2007 didn't make any difference in the polls. Oh. Kerry said he has heard that Howard rejecting advice affected his relationship with Downer. Downer denying (of course he will). "He thought he was the person best able to win the election..."

Bwahahahahaha

****

From yesterday's Insiders:

And the first thing the Liberal Party should do in order to win the 2010 election is get behind Peter Costello as the new leader of the Liberal Party, because I think he will be a very formidable Leader of the Opposition and I think he will very much get Kevin Rudd's measure. S

Hmmmm

BARRIE CASSIDY: But was it a mistake, though, to revisit the issue during APEC, to take soundings and then to essentially ignore the advice that came back to him?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, I think it was sensible for the Prime Minister to look at our situation.

Look, to be honest with you, I'll tell you one thing retrospectively, my view through this year was that it didn't look to me as though we were going to win the election. I didn't of course say that publicly and you wouldn't have expected me to. It would be suicidal to do that sort of thing, but as the year wore on there wasn't a very positive public response to a range of different initiatives, for example the $10 billion Murray Darling initiative was very well supported by the public, was a wonderful thing to do, something I've wanted to see happen all my adult life.

But it didn't shift the opinion polls. When we brought down a very popular budget in May, yes, popular with the public in terms of the initiatives, didn't shift the opinion polls.

And when we intervened in the Northern Territory in the Indigenous communities there again, the actual initiative was very popular with the public but it didn't shift the opinion polls.

I must tell you that throughout the year I have had a fairly gloomy view of our prospects. So inevitably in those circumstances, a lot of us talked about it and what we could do to try and impervious our situation, so I do think that's wise?

I think that was very wise, but who knows what a better solution could be. History just doesn't record that.

BARRIE CASSIDY: But surely that underlines it. If you a gloomy prognosis on your prospects, Peter Costello was available, you're now saying he will be an excellent leader of the Liberal Party, surely it would've been worth a try?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, who know what would've happened, frankly. I mean, who knows? We just will never know the answer to that. I think also it's important to remember that I think John Howard has been the best Prime Minister Australia's ever had, he's been an extraordinarily successful Prime Minister. He has been a formidable political figure, he's been one of the great political figures of Australian history and you know, people were certainly not going to turn aggressively on somebody of that stature.

That there's just no question of it.

BARRIE CASSIDY: You have no doubt Peter Costello will be elected leader of the Liberal Party unopposed?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Look, I've not spoken to too many people since last night. I've spoken to about two people. So I hope, as a former leader myself, let me say I hope that the party will just get behind Peter Costello and elect him unopposed.

I think that's the right decision for the Liberal Party. Peter Costello has enormous talent and remember he does have a great deal more experience, almost infinitely more experience than Kevin Rudd, and it will be a tough job for Mr Rudd to confront somebody who is as experienced as articulate, and as formidable as Peter Costello.

I think Mr Rudd will find, of course he will have a honeymoon for a while, but I think he'll find dealing with Mr Costello very heavy going as time goes on.

BARRIE CASSIDY: Malcolm Turnbull won his seats against the odds, will that boost his stocks within the party?

ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, he has been in Parliament for 3 years and I think he's gradually building up a bank of experience there, and I think he has a very good future in the party.

He is a very good friend of mine and I think very highly of him as a person. But look, you need to build up experience in politics and he's doing that. Nobody in the party, well, I suppose at least in theory with the exception of me, but I'm not running for leader, but no one in the party has the experience of Peter Costello and I think there shouldn't be a contest to the leadership. It should just go straight to Peter Costello.

Every Newspoll is sacred

Posted by the piping shrike at Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Yesterday’s post detecting a bit of a false note in Labor’s exuberance looked unfair given what seemed like delusional triumphalism from the government over what was still a lousy Newspoll. In reality, hard politics was at work. Both leaders were using the poll for all it was worth to manage the weaknesses in their respective parties. Howard made sure the party room got the message that history could repeat (even if it was Keating’s). Abbot used it on behalf of the leadership to settle scores with Turnbull by telling everyone that he didn’t rate. Rudd used it to sensibly rebalance the campaign from the weekend’s premature rally.

Full post at The Piping Shrike

Magic Bellybutton: Howard stepping down? Not gonna happen

Prime Minister John Howard has denied fresh speculation that he will hand over to Treasurer Peter Costello as early as Tuesday.

And Mr Costello made it clear he would not challenge for the Liberal leadership, even if a key opinion poll shows the Government heading for a landslide loss.

SMH

Look, I hate the bastard as much as the next person, but I seriously believe it is in the best interests of the Libs to not give Howard the boot.

Why, MB? Why are you saying these horrible, evil things?

Because they know that if someone else takes over at this late stage they are guaranteed to come out the loser in the election. Australia doesn't like instability in its political parties.

The ALP is currently cruising along, after years of being kicked around by infighting. I personally think that Rudd is the best thing to happen to the ALP since Keating. He's conservative enough to appeal to those people who have a morbid fear that a vote for the ALP is a vote for the Commies, yet his constant supporters know that he stands up for the important things like workers rights. I'm not saying that the ALP is the best option, but realistically, it is the only decent alternative in a 2PP system. (And I've not made any secret of the fact that while they won't be getting my primary vote, my vote will end up with them anyway.)

So, the Libs do not want to be saddled with the leadership woes the ALP has been digging itself out from under these past months. They run a very tight ship, very different to that of the ALP. While there may be dissent within the ranks in private, they will hold it together and present themselves as one united force in public.

They do have a better chance at winning with Howard instead of Costello. But that still doesn't mean that they will win.

I do wonder if Howard constantly holding off naming a date 'cause he wants to wait until the polls are more in his favour isn't going to do more harm than good. Because we are sick of it. Sick of the faux electioneering that is going on. Sick of not knowing what we will be doing one Saturday later on this year. Sick of watching our PM suck up to big business and big religion. Maybe he's trying to wear everyone down so that they will just vote for what is easiest. But I think that people are starting to be resentful of being fucked around and they will use their vote to stick it to him.

Which I suppose is better than nothing. But I would prefer if they voted against him 'cause he's just not good for us.

(Plus, if you think about it, if Costello was PM, there would be a good chance that Abbott would be his deputy - and do you really want the country run by Abbot and Costello?)

Magic Bellybutton: Howard stepping down? Not gonna happen