Newspoll: 54-46

Published by William Bowe at 9:51 pm under Federal Election 2007

Sky News reveals tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 54-46; primary vote Labor 46 per cent (down two points), Coalition 41 per cent (up one). Details to follow.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Newspoll: 53-47

Published by William Bowe under Federal Election 2007

Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Maybe we have a better chance at getting Liberal supporters to contribute now...

Bring Out Your Dead

Possum Comitatus has an excellent analysis of last fortnight's Newspoll, you really should read it. It has graphs.

Today we have the quarterly Newspoll you have when you aren’t having a quarterly Newspoll - a sample of 3413 voters taken over the last fortnight, broken down into States, city type and demographics.

Full post at Possum's Pollytics

Newspoll: 54-46

Published by William Bowe at 10:39 pm under Federal Election 2007

Lateline has announced a Newspoll result that gives some element of hope for the Coalition, with Labor’s lead narrowing to 54-46 from an implausible 58-42 last week. More to follow.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Picking Winners #3: 1998 Reflections

1998 saw a national swing of 4.61% to the ALP, giving it 50.98% of the two-party-preferred vote. It only won 67 of the 148 seats or 45.27%. A depressing reflection for Labor voters. With a uniform swing in every electorate, the ALP would have won 17 of the 18 seats which it did capture, plus 11 more.


This graph of seats which changed hands includes Hume which switched from National to Liberal, Curtin and Moore won by the Libs from independents and Kalgoorlie won by the Libs from the former ALP member and then independent. These swings are not towards the ALP.



Most of the large swings against the government were in safe ALP or Coalition seats. A lot of "wasted" votes. With only 0.93% more in 8 marginals Kim Beazley would have saved us 9 years of Mr. Sneaky.

Kevin Rudd will be hoping that this pattern does not repeat itself in 2007 or that the national swing is enough to overcome this.

Original post at: Labor View from Broome

Picking Winners #2: Seats changing hands

There was quite a spread in 2004 as the national, seat by seat, swings show. An earlier post shows the top 20 of these.



In 2004, 70 seats had a swing less than the 1.79% average towards the government and 79 had a swing greater than the average. Yet so few seats changed hands. Those that did were all over the place. All the Coalition wins were with swings greater than the average except one. Reasons varied. Four weeks before the campaign the impact on Tasmanian seats of forest policy could not have been anticipated quite the way it panned out.

If the swing had only been the average 1.79% in the seats picked up by the government, 6 of the 8 would still have been changed hands. Had the swing been uniform then the ALP would have won 59 seats compared with the 60 they did win.

The spread seemed to even out in the end across the nation. But if you're trying to pick a particular seat to have a punt, good luck!

Original post at: Labor View form Broome

Newspoll: 58-42

Published by William Bowe at 9:27 pm under Federal Election 2007

Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …

UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Westpoll: Liberals lead in Perth marginals

Published by William Bowe at 2:16 pm under Federal Election 2007

A very encouraging result for the government from Westpoll in today’s West Australian, which has the Liberals holding firm in their Perth marginals of Stirling and Hasluck and set to win Cowan from Labor with a 5 per cent swing. The poll was conducted

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Cool Stuff

Hill & Knowlton Election Predictor

I don't know how it works but it sure is fun cranking the swing percentages up really high.

Could Labor's soft strategy lead to loss?

Could even John Howard make these men look impotent?

This is something that's been bothering me all week, mainly because the same thing happened during the disastrous 2004 election campaign: Labor clearly has the same people running their advertising campaigns as they did back then. This was worrying me back in July, and I really hoped the ALP would wake up to themselves in the meantime. What we should be doing is seeing ads putting some steel-toed boots into the ribs of the Libs while they're down in the polls. Some more anti-Workchoices ads. Some more 'John Howard has been asleep on climate change' ads. Some ads reminding people of how Howard spent $2 billion of their money on ads promoting himself and his policies (and maybe a promise to change the rules so that can't happen again? Helloooo?). Anything that will remind people of why they shouldn't be voting for Howard, and I don't mean more of those lame anti-Costello ads.

Instead we've been getting nice, bland Kevin Rudd, speaking in measured tones, soft enough to appeal to grandmas yet forceful enough to sound statesmanlike, with soft, inspirational music playing in the background. Enough, Kevin! You can be a statesman after you win the frigging election. Anything earlier is just playing make-believe. It didn't work for Mark Latham and it won't work for you. The polls are heading in Howard's favour already, and presidential-style ads aren't going to stop his $34 billion vote-buying spree having an impact on the electorate.

One positive to come out of this week is actually Rudd's response to the $34 billion in tax cuts- given his past form I expected Labor to fall for the same trick as last election, making lots of promises in support of schools, the healthcare system etc and then promising tax cuts on top of it all to match the government and consequently looking weak on their fiscal management.

Just one final note- how much of an ass is Wayne Swan? I guess there's the possibility that he's under instruction to 'stay on message', in which case he's been given the wrong message, but in interviews this week he seems to be running around trying to be Peter Costello to Kevin Rudd's John Howard, once again missing the opportunity to put the boot into Workchoices and the effect it has on ordinary people's earnings.

Oh, and you know who I think we should be seeing more of? Julia Gillard.

Somebody slap them!

The kids are alright

Published by William Bowe at 9:30 pm under General

“YouTube generation is poised to deliver the killer blow to John Howard’s election chances”, read the headline in Sunday’s Sun-Herald. The evidence: polling agency Taverner’s remarkable finding that Labor held a 73-27 lead among Sydney and Melbourne voters aged 18 to 29.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Newspoll: 56-44

Published by William Bowe at 12:11 am under Federal Election 2007

After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Galaxy: 51-49 in Queensland marginals

Published by William Bowe at 12:05 am under Federal Election 2007

The Courier-Mail has published a Galaxy poll of the Queensland marginals Bonner, Moreton, Longman and Herbert, which shows a collective Labor lead of just 51-49. Based on results in these seats in 2004, Adam Carr calculates a swing to Labor of 5.1 per cent – enough to

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Howard to get his arse kicked

YOUNG voters, fearful about jobs, are poised to deliver a savage blow to John Howard's fifth-term election prospects, an exclusive Sun-Herald/Taverner poll has found.

The Prime Minister will visit Yarralumla today to advise Governor-General Michael Jeffery of his wish to dissolve Parliament and call a federal election for either November 24 or December 1.

He will do so as the devastating poll reveals his long-time critical support among older voters has also eroded dramatically.

The poll, conducted in NSW and Victoria, revealed Mr Howard entering the election campaign a whopping 18 per cent behind Labor on a two-party preferred basis - 59 per cent to 41 per cent.

Across nearly all demographics and among men and women Labor has leapt ahead, pointing to a landslide victory for the Opposition.

If mirrored on polling day, it would mean a loss to the Government of more than 20 seats.

Hatred of Mr Howard's workplace laws emerged as the critical factor in the dramatic shift in support away from the Government.

First-time voters and the under 29s cited fears about jobs and employment security as the reason they would not vote for the Government.

SMH

Younger people are less likely to vote for the Liberals anyway, so that comes as little surprise. But the wrinkly vote, the vote that - along with the religious conservative vote - is generally the one that gives him an edge.

Theoretically, the IR changes are going to be the thing that kicks the government while they're down. Good. Let's just hope that people remember all the things that the government has done to screw people over.

Insiders is on at the moment. They are expecting the election to be called in hours.

Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria

Published by William Bowe at 8:45 pm under Federal Election 2007

Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Reuters poll trend: 56.8-43.2

Published by William Bowe at 2:15 pm under Federal Election 2007

Reuters’ twice-monthly poll trend, a weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen, shows a slight easing of Labor’s two-party lead since September 16, down from 57.7-42.3 to 56.8-43.2. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49.5 per cent to 49.0 per cent and the Coalition’s is up from 38.2 per cent to 39.1 per cent. Both leaders are down slightly on the preferred prime minister rating, Kevin Rudd from 49.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and John Howard

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Westpoll: 53-47 in WA

Published by William Bowe at 2:10 am under Federal Election 2007

The West Australian today carries its monthly Westpoll survey of around 400 voters, which shows Labor’s two-party lead in WA increasing to 53-47 from 51.6-48.4 last month. Compared with the 2004 election results, this points to a swing to Labor of 8.4 per cent – which would

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Newspoll: 56-44

Published by William Bowe at 1:25 am under Federal Election 2007

Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago.

Full post at The Poll Bludger

Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Published by William Bowe at 12:34 pm under Federal Election 2007

Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to

Full post at The Poll Bludger

It’s the Liberals' vote that is soft

Posted by the piping shrike at Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Lateline did a bit of mis-reporting of the other night’s speech by Sol Lebovic, the founder of Newspoll, if the transcript of it is a guide. Presented as ‘good news for the government’ it seemed like yet another dismissing of the strong Labor leads being reported in the polls, which has been so widespread this year that it is even being done by those who produced the polls, such as Lebovic’s successor. However, the transcript suggests he was saying something much more interesting that gets closer to the truth.

Full post at The Piping Shrike